Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[SunCatcher]

I'm generally a believer in the idea that "price is truth" in the market. I just can't seem to fathom what I'm missing. I understand there is perceived uncertainty in the GM due to reports of discounting. Outside of that, how a beat on ambitious numbers (that no one believed was possible) does not cause a significant reaction has me flummoxed. /sigh

You know… me too. Here's one thought that keeps reoccuring in my mind. Dilution. Capitol raises in the recent past, and now coming up again in the not too far future. How can you expect to dilute the stock by these large increments, and not expect to see the stock price stall out, or even drop. I'm only putting this out here because I haven't seen it addressed. And I have read every post for many months now. It's like the government printing money. I know… that's not always bad, and I'm not saying it's bad here either. Tesla has to do it to grow quickly. It has to be done, I agree, but wouldn't it make the stock price take a hit?

 

[racer26]

You know… me too. Here's one thought that keeps reoccuring in my mind. Dilution. Capitol raises in the recent past, and now coming up again in the not too far future. How can you expect to dilute the stock by these large increments, and not expect to see the stock price stall out, or even drop. I'm only putting this out here because I haven't seen it addressed. And I have read every post for many months now. It's like the government printing money. I know… that's not always bad, and I'm not saying it's bad here either. Tesla has to do it to grow quickly. It has to be done, I agree, but wouldn't it make the stock price take a hit?

Not if having the capital enables the company to build value.

 

[myusername]

You know… me too. Here's one thought that keeps reoccuring in my mind. Dilution. Capitol raises in the recent past, and now coming up again in the not too far future. How can you expect to dilute the stock by these large increments, and not expect to see the stock price stall out, or even drop. I'm only putting this out here because I haven't seen it addressed. And I have read every post for many months now. It's like the government printing money. I know… that's not always bad, and I'm not saying it's bad here either. Tesla has to do it to grow quickly. It has to be done, I agree, but wouldn't it make the stock price take a hit?

everyone at this point must be asking themselves... if 70% q/q doesn't launch into the next 2013 like short squeeze... then what could?... i couldn't imagine holding a high risk stock for 2 years while it trades flat and less.

 

[ggies07]

everyone at this point must be asking themselves... if 70% q/q doesn't launch into the next 2013 like short squeeze... then what could?... i couldn't imagine holding a high risk stock for 2 years while it trades flat and less.

Now why would that be? Has the and is the company executing like they said? Yep, they just executed in your face. So really, there's nothing wrong with the company, what's happening here is all the shorting damaging the stock to make it LOOK like something is wrong. I've been following this company since it was a baby bird and it's done nothing be grow despite all the little pest in the world.

 

[TMSE]

everyone at this point must be asking themselves... if 70% q/q doesn't launch into the next 2013 like short squeeze... then what could?... i couldn't imagine holding a high risk stock for 2 years while it trades flat and less.

Your question is relevant to your own short position. If TSLA trades flat, why would you hold your short position? If you hold put options, they loose all their time value at expiry, or if you short the stock you pay exorbitant borrow fee anywhere from 40 to 110%. Why on earth would inflict such a pain on yourself?

 

[BobSk]

If the merger stops, I would expect a massive squeeze up on TSLA, basically the opposite of what happened when the merger was announced. So an intraday $100 spike, that retraces about $50 by close.

Doesn't that alone justify a blocking the merger?

If SCTY gets into TSLA, then TSLA the stock becomes infected, Tesla the company can continue to grow and prosper, but TSLA the stock, well, the magic will be gone.

I think you got it completely wrong. The merger with SCTY will pave the way for Tesla to become a trillion dollar company. Look at the large picture, human race is transitioning from fossil fuel to solar energy. Tesla will play a major role in that transition. The market size is several trillion dollars, Tesla will be the leader in this new sector.

 

[theschnell]

everyone at this point must be asking themselves... if 70% q/q doesn't launch into the next 2013 like short squeeze... then what could?... i couldn't imagine holding a high risk stock for 2 years while it trades flat and less.

GAAP profitability or perhaps even if just non-gaap profitable. Not like 2013 but a nice rise. That's what I am banking on. If that doesn't move the stock I will be scratching my head. Deliveries moved it about as much as I expected. Around 5%.

But then some of us will just hold because we believe in the company and we believe it will grow into its valuation if it's not there already. I will say I have never put someone on ignore, but that is about to change. You have no new arguments. Just valuation and comparison to other auto makers which we've heard here for years and it's really getting old.

 

[Drivin]

I think you got it completely wrong. The merger with SCTY will pave the way for Tesla to become a trillion dollar company. Look at the large picture, human race is transitioning from fossil fuel to solar energy. Tesla will play a major role in that transition. The market size is several trillion dollars, Tesla will be the leader in this new sector.

If you actually believe that Tesla will be a trillion dollar company, than you should sell everything you have and load up on TSLA. Where else are you going to find a 30x return like that?

 

[SunCatcher]

Not if having the capital enables the company to build value.

Well, I agree. I'm just trying to shine the light on the difference between burning cash, raising capital, and building value. The value is being built, at the cost of stock valuation, no? Hey, I'm long Tesla, in a big way for me. But just trying to understand why the stock price would stay in the range it has, considering the good, no... great, no... amazing news re: 3rd quarter delivery results.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

I'm generally a believer in the idea that "price is truth" in the market. I just can't seem to fathom what I'm missing. I understand there is perceived uncertainty in the GM due to reports of discounting. Outside of that, how a beat on ambitious numbers (that no one believed was possible) does not cause a significant reaction has me flummoxed. /sigh

Under normal circumstances, where a company's business, future prospects, and financials are well understood, it is easy for market actors to place a price on shares.

However, Tesla is not a normal company. Mass manufacturing of automobiles is hard, and Tesla is attempting to change the entire paradigm of automobiles from gasoline to electric. Those 2 factors alone introduce almost unprecedented uncertainty to the company's future prospects. Then throw SolarCity into the mix, which further muddies the waters.

Where things are uncertain, price is rarely truth, because nobody knows what will happen and when it will happen. The way I see it, the market is stumbling around like a drunk dummy with TSLA because any attempt to forecast the future is basically staring into a thick cloud of mist.

 

[racer26]

Well, I agree. I'm just trying to shine the light on the difference between burning cash, raising capital, and building value. The value is being built, at the cost of stock valuation, no? Hey, I'm long Tesla, in a big way for me. But just trying to understand why the stock price would stay in the range it has, considering the good, no... great, no... amazing news re: 3rd quarter delivery results.

I really think it is as simple as the market believes Tesla achieved those delivery numbers by forfeiting margin, and when the financials come out in November to shoot that notion in the head, all will be well. It also doesn't understand the synergies between TSLA and SCTY, and so hopefully the Oct 28 unveil should shoot that uncertainty in the head too.

 

[theschnell]

Financials are the STEAK people. Delivery numbers just showed those of us who are paying attention what's on the menu for the upcoming ER. I am not surprised in the least at the relatively tepid response to deliveries. Sentiment on TSLA is horrible right now and only surprisingly good financials will turn that around. Just wait 4 or 5 more weeks and you will be rewarded.

 

[doctoxics]

Under normal circumstances, where a company's business, future prospects, and financials are well understood, it is easy for market actors to place a price on shares.

However, Tesla is not a normal company. Mass manufacturing of automobiles is hard, and Tesla is attempting to change the entire paradigm of automobiles from gasoline to electric. Those 2 factors alone introduce almost unprecedented uncertainty to the company's future prospects. Then throw SolarCity into the mix, which further muddies the waters.

Where things are uncertain, price is rarely truth, because nobody knows what will happen and when it will happen. The way I see it, the market is stumbling around like a drunk dummy with TSLA because any attempt to forecast the future is basically staring into a thick cloud of mist.

That would be true if we didn't have the amazing growth and technical achievements already accomplished by Tesla. I doubt anything will be harder than what they have already overcome. One can believe that the market is less well informed as we are and just can't figure out where Tesla is going or, more likely, there are other agendas at work.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

That would be true if we didn't have the amazing growth and technical achievements already accomplished by Tesla. I doubt anything will be harder than what they have already overcome. One can believe that the market is less well informed as we are and just can't figure out where Tesla is going or, more likely, there are other agendas at work.

I think a lot of people here at TMC can understand that because we're generally more knowledgeable about EV issues than most other people. I've had a hell of a time explaining EVs to other people. Some, mostly engineers and technically oriented people, seem to get it. Others give me blank stares and cannot mentally see past gasoline filling stations.

I suspect there's a combination of ignorance in the market, as well as "other agendas" at work. The fossil fuel industry obviously has a lot to lose, and various market participants, particularly people who had the misfortune of shorting the stock 3 years ago, are out for revenge. And then there are FUDster bloggers who cannot admit that they might be wrong.

 

[FredTMC]

GAAP profitability or perhaps even if just non-gaap profitable. Not like 2013 but a nice rise. That's what I am banking on. If that doesn't move the stock I will be scratching my head. Deliveries moved it about as much as I expected. Around 5%.

But then some of us will just hold because we believe in the company and we believe it will grow into its valuation if it's not there already. I will say I have never put someone on ignore, but that is about to change. You have no new arguments. Just valuation and comparison to other auto makers which we've heard here for years and it's really getting old.

Not to worry... tesla financials will be going thru the roof with Model 3 volume.
We've seen a few of these shorties roll thru TMC. They always burn out and move on.., they're funny.

 

[Xpert]

I have a soft corner for Daimler. As Elon mentions often, TSLA was bailed out by Daimler, not the Government. We would not have TSLA today, were it not for the critical investment by Daimler when TSLA was about to sink.

NTN (no thanks neccessary) - within 10 years, Tesla will be returning the same exact favor to Daimler. You have my words.

 

[BornToFly]

I believe that part of the reason we have not seen more of a sustained climb in the stock price is the general belief that other companies, like Mercedes, will swallow Tesla whole. Most people, including the analysts, don't understand that all lithium batteries are not the same. Tesla has the best batteries at the lowest price. I really doubt Mercedes will have an eight year warranty. They won't have the batteries to produce 500,000 cars anytime soon. Dealers, at least in the US, will not want to sell Mercedes EVs over Mercedes ICE vehicles, because the former will put them out of business after the decline in Service Department revenue. The list goes on and on, but most people still don't get it. I do think they will start to see the light after the Model 3 is in full production, and S and X have been significantly improved further, and the other companies are just beginning to deliver a product at low volume that is years behind Tesla offerings. I now think that we will be under 240 for a 50 day for 6-12 more months. Which is o.k. by me, because it will give me time to buy a few thousand more shares at a great price.

 

[Turing]

I believe that part of the reason we have not seen more of a sustained climb in the stock price is the general belief that other companies, like Mercedes, will swallow Tesla whole.

On the bright side it seems like it was only last year (2015) when shorts were arguing that EVs were a unproven future market, toyota .et al. fuel cell technology and PHEVs would beat out EVs. Now with all these major companies like VW and Mercedes acknowledging they are aiming for a significant EV shift by 2025, i guess that kind of confirms where the market is headed. Look how far we have come in a year...

 

[dakh]

everyone at this point must be asking themselves... if 70% q/q doesn't launch into the next 2013 like short squeeze... then what could?... i couldn't imagine holding a high risk stock for 2 years while it trades flat and less.

It doesn't trade flat. It was in 140's and in 280's, and there were money to be made. Delivery number was right about in the middle of what people expected it to be. Some folks here got a bit excited but hey some shorts get excited for various non-reason reasons as well.

 

[Turing]

It doesn't trade flat. It was in 140's and in 280's, and there were money to be made. Delivery number was right about in the middle of what people expected it to be. Some folks here got a bit excited but hey some shorts get excited for various non-reason reasons as well.

How was it in the middle? The most bullish analyst predicted 22k deliveries.