Seems longer than what others have posted but I don't question your data (and I haven't digested it all). Here's something else to consider.There was some chit chat recently on how long it might take to transition fully from ICE to EV. Since I cleaned up my long term historical data series and future forecasts I thought I could look at that fairly easily, at least for some crude approximations so as to add data to what can otherwise be an unreal discussion.
There are issues around both stocks and flows, i.e. how many vehicles are in existence and how many get built and/or disposed of each year.
For the definition of a vehicle I used the IOICA ones (www.oica.net) which differentiate between light duty vehicles (aka 'passenger') and heavy duty (aka "commercial"). The "passenger" ones of course includes all those 'trucks' the yanks keep bleating about, whereas the heavy duty ones seem to be mostly the large buses and heavy goods vehicles.
For flows there are many series of tota production and with a bit of care one can identify light vs heavy. For lifespan one needs to be careful - most of the studies tend to give a vehicle lifespan in the mid-teens. However as any visitor to a poorer country will see the vehicles there are often well beyond mid teens, and so one needs to account for vehicles being exported out of rich nations to poor nations, and so skewing the data. This study (Lifespans of passenger cars in Europe: empirical modelling of fleet turnover dynamics - European Transport Research Review) looks at that and comes to 18-year lifespans for west Europe and 28-year lifespans for East Europe. As a result I selected a 20-year lifespan for global average forecasting purposes, though inevitably that will mask both national variation and the likelihood of some compression during the latter stages of adoption.
There is talk about how autonomous vehicles may result in fewer vehicles as each vehicle gets more fully utilised. I don't see any significant autonomy hitting the mass-market pre 2030, if only for regulatory reasons. Equally as (hopefully, perhaps) more humans around the planet are able to afford access to vehicles that will tend towards greater numbers of vehicles, though of course the continued penetration of rail solutions will have an effect, at least in some regions. During the transition some ICE-manufacturers will naturally push cheap vehicles into the market in an attempt to survive and that will drive volumes up, but then some of them will go bankrupt before the corresponding EV volumes are fully available, which will complicate matters. Therefore I imposed a long term (2040) production volume of 60 million vehicles/year to account for these various effects, and I sketched in a production profile over the next 20-years that attempts to reflect a bounce-back from Covid and these factors.
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As we know Tesla are pushing towards 20m/yr in 2030, and for the last few years Tesla have been approximately 22-23% of BEV-sales (see my previous studies and also EV-sales-blogspot). However Musk is on record as saying he thinks by the time Tesla get to 20m/yr the others will only reach 10m/yr. That does not seem likely to me as non-Tesla BEV production was already 2.5m in 2020, and non-Tesla growth rates have historically also been good. Nonetheless we can see that non-Tesla long-range integrated planning may be less than perfect and so I set up a progression for Tesla from the current 23% towards 50% in 2030. After that there is no good reason for Tesla to stop growing, indeed many reasons that they could and would do so. In this respect we can recall that Ford were once at 60% market share in the inter-War years. Therefore I assumed that Tesla continue to grow to ~30m and that the remainder of the industry match that rate.
For PHEV it seems to me that they are a failed technology and so once the current crop have come to market as a way of spreading the batteries around as thinly as possible, they will diminish to fairly rare use-cases. I suspect they will peak at 4.6m/yr in 2024 at 5% market share.
This gives the following production breakdowns.
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or put differently it suggests ICE production would - naturally, and without requiring intervention - cease globally by 2035.
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This assumes that Tesla perform on their stated plans, and that by-comparison other companies fail to individually match Tesla and can only (together) hold parity in volume terms with Tesla. If the ~25% market share of Tesla were to remain steady and the other companies somehow are able to match Tesla's growth rate then of course ICE-manufacture would end far earlier. Other combinations are of course possible.
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In stock terms this creates the following global outcome, with ICE fully eliminated to all intents by 2050. From an energy perspective they would have become irrelevant earlier as the most mileages are driven by the newer vehicles.
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Maybe one day I'll look at the energy and carbon implications of this.
"How Much Is A Scrap Car Worth?
According to data from JunkCarMedics.com you can expect to get between $332 - $883 for your average junk car. For the month of November, the average value of a junk car was $626, which is an increase from a value of $569 in October."It's probably US data but it's recent, and may not account for what the value is in say Mexico for example, where I know things can just keep going much past serviceable life. But at what point does someone melt it down for the raw materials, especially if a carbon tax is introduced? Or if cost of digging for more raw materials also increases? Doesn't that change everything?
If we can look at them as "Aluminum Cans" so to speak, can we get there in half the time perhaps? There's a lot of iron in those junkers that could go right into batteries for example. At some point the raw values will cross usable value at transport, and instead of sending them to Mexico or a junk yard for parts, maybe the meltdown is a better choice, especially the engine block or frames. At least that's what I hope!