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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Not sure if this has been noted here - but Tesla's safety features are well above average, even for EV's thanks to their real-life data - airbags deploy milliseconds faster than any others and in the right sequence, something that NHTSA safety tests do not measure. But clearly makes a difference in actual accidents. It'll probably take a few years of actuarial data to support these better accident outcomes. Hence lower insurance rates, also in a couple years .. by which time Tesla insurance will be available in all states. Could be another source of revenues if Tesla decides to license that tech to other car manufacturers.

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....The competition is coming....

Not sure it "beats" the MY, but worth monitoring the competition....Tesla having inferior range is unusual.

Few issues there. They compare the 2020 MY which doesn't have the double pane windows which would lower road noise. Plus they compare a MY performance with the Ioniq. The perf would certainly have lower range due to the power. I test drove the Ioniq and it is certainly inferior to the MY. The interior is not as nice, trunk and frunk space is smaller. It doesn't drive as well too. It maybe looks better on the outside so I guess it wins /s.
 
If this isn’t bullish, I don’t know what will!
(Sorry if it had been posted here before)


Even more impressive is that Switzerland has no incentives for EV’s, and Model 3 still became the best selling car.
 
Even more impressive is that Switzerland has no incentives for EV’s, and Model 3 still became the best selling car.

I remember about more than twenty years ago being warned, when I told people I was going that beautiful country.
They said: "if you have to stop at a traffic light, make sure you shut down the motor until the light turns green.
If people see you standing with an idling motor, they will look displeased at you and will demonstratively pinch their nose."
Swiss people really cherish their clean air; Tesla is perfect for the way people in Switzerland look at cars.
 
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Yeah, you're doing it again, assuming there is California, and forgetting Europe where Toyota sells these cars because of more stringent emission standards and high taxes on internal combustion engines.

Doing what again- answering the question the poster asked?

The post to which I was replying said "Don't know about the US"

So I informed them about the US.

Where it's only sold in CA.

And specifically in just a couple of markets (basically SF and LA) because that's where virtually all of the fueling stations in the entire country are. (there's also like 1 random one in lake tahoe, 1 random one north of San Diego, and 1 random one around Sacramento... plus one in between SF and LA-- the others are all in the SF area (13 of em IIRC) and the LA area (almost 2 dozen of them)

So they're not really sold- nor would they be especially useful since there's be no place to refuel them- anywhere it gets below freezing on any regular basis.

Or at all in the last 30+ years for the 2 major markets in CA- as cited with actual weather data.


As to the EU, as another poster pointed out, the # sold there is pretty tiny compared to the US- and even US sales are pretty tiny.

It's a weird compliance car Toyota has to routinely give away $15,000 fuel cars in the US to get anyone to take off their hands, since unlike an EV you legit can not take a long road trip with one outside of basically the SD-LA-SF corridor, given there's no place to fuel just about anywhere else in the US.




Oh, and what should be the last word on the temp nonsense... the exhaust water on the mirai is coming out at 140 degrees F.

That's a bit above freezing. Even in Norway :)


It's a terrible way to fuel a vehicle, but not because OMG ICE EXHAUST.
 
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  • Informative
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Not a real issue, there are no more Ioniq 5 cars available for sale in the US till .. who knows when; there were 160 delivered in 2021, guessing it's in the order of a couple thousands or so total max for the 2022 US market. By 2023 it's a new ball game with the 4860 and the usual 5% production line improvements
They must have all been bought by London Uber drivers. Nearly all the Uber trips I get these days are either Konas or Ioniqs.
 
FWIW snowpack has been way above average this year in CA I’ve heard, which is good to hear.
technicality, it’s been above average for certain past DATES in time of the year (and that was back in December 2021), but if we don’t get a lot more rain in Feb-May, it will land then again below average. With what was a “record” snowfall for I think 72 hours in December >150 inches, we flat lined.


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Even more impressive is that Switzerland has no incentives for EV’s, and Model 3 still became the best selling car.
While the COUNTRY of Switzerland doesn’t have any direct EV tax credits, rebates or incentives, MANY of the 26 Canton’s (like US states or Canadian provinces) DO have some significanct purchase incentives ~$2500-$10000 Eqv. or rebates that reduce overall purhcase price assuming one lives in them (might be purchases there, not sure).. Also the ICE tax PENALTIES on both fuel and registrations based on consumption or vehicle ICE displacement don’t apply at all.. so ongoing operational costs for taxes and registration can be significantly cheaper than for an ICE vechile.

I’ll also add the that “state” or country offers a lot of free EV charging nationwide and compared to an ICE vehicle where the average cost of a gallon of gas (of course priced in liters) is about ~$7 eqv. Just HAVING an EV can be quite a savings over the lifetime of the vehicle.
 
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Was behind a Toyota Mirai yesterday on the I-5 in Orange County . . .

Just wanted to share my thoughts on the practical point of sharing the road with one of these cars, and why hydrogen-powered cars have some annoyances that may not have been considered before.

1) Every time the driver hit the accelerator, our car got sprayed with a misting of water. It was like being behind someone that is constantly cleaning there windshield. We could literally see a woosh of spray coming out from the tailpipe each time. It became annoying enough we zoomed past on the right and hopped in front of them and cleaned our windshield (legit needing cleaning - and he got a taste of what he was passing out to everyone else).
2) with that much water vapor constantly coming out of the tailpipe, I wondered what it would be like on the roads in a place like LA that has literally millions of cars. Would there there be a low-level fog/smog from this all the time? Would it be better or worse than what we deal with now?
Wow. I had no idea they did that. Informative.
 
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@The Accountant I have a question for you, In a recent post of yours (homer simpson chalkboard picture) you have a multiple of 150. Could you explain what you use to get to that 150 number? Thanks in advance
-Big Time
Multiples are set based on the potential future growth of a company. The higher the growth the higher the multiple.
As compared to Amazon during their 2015-2020 run, Tesla's growth should be much better.
Amazon grew 20%, 27% and 31% in the years 2015, 2016, 2017, while
Tesla will grow 70%, 66%, and 68% in the years 2021, 2022 and 2023

1642977591524.png


Even though I expect higher growth from Tesla vs Amazon, I have similar P/E multiples in my model. While I have 150 multiple for Tesla, Amazon had 153 with less growth (see chart below). We could argue that the multiple should be much higher for Tesla (e.g. 200 multiple?).

The other reason why Tesla should have a better P/E multiple is because they make more profit per sale than Amazon did.
In the chart above, Amazon had 3% Operating Margins in year 2 (2016) of their 6 year run while Tesla will have a 19% margin in 2022.

1642977989564.png


My multiples decrease each year for Tesla as I assume that Tesla cannot keep up the high growth rates year in and year out; but this may be a poor assumption on my part and we could see a much higher multiple in 2026 than the multiple of 70 that I assume (see chart above).
Hope this helps.
 
Quoting from an old, not-very-good movie, "Sometimes the only way to win is not to play the game"
WarGames

I take offense at you calling it "not-very-good" and at you misquoting it. I'll concede the point on it being old.

1642978642252.jpeg


"A STRANGE GAME.
THE ONLY WINNING MOVE IS
NOT TO PLAY."
 
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That sounds crazy high to me. I'm not saying you are WRONG, I don't have a crystal ball of course, but WOW that sounds high! 😮

I'm leaning towards a more conservative share price increase over time. I think PE Ratios will contract over the next few years thereby lowering valuations in the market a bit compared to what we've been used to these past few years. Time will tell, and I'd love for your numbers to be correct! :D
My model is pretty close to Blue Horseshoe's model. I have an estimate of $1798 for end of 2022 and $2697 for end of 2023.
 
But natives never call it "Cali" or San Francisco "Frisco". No comments on CA while using Cali.
Not sure why that matters. @Knightshade is full of it. I was out the door today before the sun was up and there was frost on all the cars. I know it was freezing temps. I’ve experienced freezing temps multiple times over the years and I’m not even in the Sierra’s. So he can shut up on the topic once and for all and stick his disagrees in his ear.
 
Good so we can stop talking about it. Stock price does nothing and analyst backs it out. If anything we will have a quarter of tesla bulls praise how awesome earnings have gotten without including it with context, Then our earnings drop next Q will lead bears to talk about how Tesla's earning growth is over for a quarter without any context.
Impacts PE and is a permanent structural change to EPS going forward. People can say it gets backed out, but it’s a major inflection point for a business as it effectively means management expects significant future profitability for the foreseeable future.
 
I've been considering using the "High Bay" are for cold rolling in this thread:-


This sentence sums up my thoughts:-
So there is a lot of "circumstantial evidence" that can be twisted to suit that narrative.

If you wish to reply, please do so in that thread.
 
Not sure why that matters. @Knightshade is full of it. I was out the door today before the sun was up and there was frost on all the cars. I know it was freezing temps. I’ve experienced freezing temps multiple times over the years and I’m not even in the Sierra’s. So he can shut up on the topic once and for all and stick his disagrees in his ear.
I live in the East Bay and we are regularly in the high 20’s this time of year.