We’ve seen a partly built Cybertruck, it has paint on a lot of interior parts.
Not a huge mystery.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Not a huge mystery.
Krugerrand
Meow
I’m feeling mean in the moment and I want to see him crushed (as in very wrong) and at this point I don’t care in which direction. 383,000 or 483,000 works for me. Meow!
I agree, except for the “don’t care which direction” part. I want to see him crushed in the correct direction.
I have trouble taking his predictions seriously when they swing so much towards the end of the quarter after the weekly data from China makes his previous guesses obviously way wrong.
I have in my analyst target notes that several months ago she projected $650 in 2028 for EVs only; $1700 w/FSD and ride hailing.
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
It's 1st April down under. Please post any relevant / funny April Fools jokes here:
Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts
Optimeer
Member
I think this is mostly whining by lagacy automakers expecting to get their way with the local Gov't. Good luck w. that in China! It's not like those automakers don't already have to meet similarly stringent emissions specs to sell their wares in Europe and N. America. They already have the tech, they're just trying to save a few bux on COGS in China at the expense of Chinese lungs (which are free to foreign automakers).
So what's likely to happen IMHO is the follows:
Sound about right?
- Come July 1st the new rules go into effect and automakers grudgingly comply,
- any unsold inventory becomes unsellable in China,
- said unsold cars are loaded on a boat to New Zealand (etc), and
- foreign automakers continue to drag their feet, bitch'n'moan.
Cheers!
I don‘t have the know how to asses how difficult it is to build fossil fuel cars which comply with the new 6b standard. At least, NOx emissions for example can be very effectively reduced by implementing an Adblue System. Then there are many improvements which could be implemented to increase the overall efficiency, for example optimizing the aerodynamics.
Below I coplementied my table of the EU Emission Standards for Class M1 cars (passenger cars with max. 8 seats in addition to the driver‘s) of my post 7194841.
| Emissions/km | EU - current Petrol 6d | EU- current Diesel 6d | EU - future Petrol & Diesel 7, starting 2025 or later | China 6a passenger cars <2.5 tons (class I) until 30.6.23 | China 6b passenger cars >2.5 tons(class I) starting 1.7.23 |
| NOx mg | 60 | 80 | 60 | 60 | 35 |
| PM mg | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 3 |
| PN10 | 6x10^11 | 6x10^11 | 6x10^11 | 6x10^11 | 6x10^11 |
| CO mg | 1000 | 500 | 500 | 700 | 500 |
| THC mg | - | 100 | 100 | 100 | 50 |
| NMHC | - | 68 | 68 | 68 | 35 |
| 35NH3 mg | - | - | 20 | - | - |
| N2O mg | - | - | - | 20 | 20 |
So according to Troy, Austin is pretty much done ramping for the year. Meanwhile Berlin will double in Q2. Shanghai which had the new years break in Q1 used that break to wind down Model Y from 130k to 100k/quarter. Because demand is over in China and they will just move those Shanghai exports from China to Berlin.
My guess is that Tesla will do as Elon said and lower prices rather than lower production. We will see what happens.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
LOL indeed -- (imma guess you didn't check your thesis even against the most recent quarter?)
The final day of trading for Q4 2022 was Dec 30. Volume at the 4:00 pm minute that day was 2,438,365 (2.44M). So that's only 34.4% of the per-minute volume we saw today at 4:00 pm (7.01M shares).
Total TSLA volume for Dec 30, 2022: 157.8M shares
After-hrs volume for Dec 30, 2022: 2,204,785 (2.2M shares) thru 8:00 pm
As of 5:40 ET today, there have been 1,954,462 shares traded afterhours
No worries, there are 9 months left of the year for him to upgrade that prediction.
Troy’s best predictions are the ones he makes about things that have already happened. /s
From a quick glance @ Twitter, Troy’s original estimate in the first week of January was 426k and then it moved up as high as 438k and as low as 409k.
Many things happened in Q1 that could have changed the outlook, from the price cuts at the start of the year to price increases in the US to various shorter-term discounts on inventory in China, Europe, free supercharging and discounts on domestic Model X inventory, etc etc.
TrendTrader007
Active Member
Yesterday bought 14 call options $tsla $390 December 2025
Already up 18% today
My personal expectation is for Tesla to trade $1600 by 2025 therefore I intend to hold them rather than trade them
Also holding huge quantities of Tesla, common, as well as TSLL
Not financial advice
Already up 18% today
My personal expectation is for Tesla to trade $1600 by 2025 therefore I intend to hold them rather than trade them
Also holding huge quantities of Tesla, common, as well as TSLL
Not financial advice
cliff harris
Member
I am surprised Troy does not even have an entry for the Semi. What are peoples predictions? I'm thinking surely 500-1,000 in this year? There is no way cybertruck outruns the semi? Semi already has some actual customer vehicles in the wild, and semi uses no radical new body-construction technology the way CT does.
If there are not 500 semis in the wild by Christmas I will be a very surprised investor.
If there are not 500 semis in the wild by Christmas I will be a very surprised investor.
lafrisbee
Active Member
Most of the ones already "rely" (Blame their poor performance on the AI of the day, Algorithms)I'm really hoping that this "human-first" policy you have concocted won't be applied to stock analysts and journalists.
Just sayin'
Troy has the Semi volume production starting in 2025 and won’t include them until they’re in volume
lafrisbee
Active Member
Troy gets a lot of posts considering every one of those posters (ecept one) don't think he knows his "stuff."
Krugerrand
Meow
Meh I think a vocal group (minority?) doesn’t like him anymore, and they ensure their voices are heard as is characteristic of vocal minorities.
Yeah, that makes sense.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
Plot twist. Troy joined my team?If you are in Troy’s camp, Europe disappoints.
Whose team are you on? Mine, who does 10 minutes of research in the early morning when I can’t sleep, or Troy’s, whose leader does tons of research for profit? Find out in a few days who wins.
Cybertruck will probably outrun the semi.
The current process on the semi is a rounding error on what will be Cybertruck volumes, the number that matters for semi production is when they get their new assembly line in place. Only way Semi “wins” this would be if they got that online fairly quickly and struggled with Cybertruck production.
Most likely we’re looking at 5,000 - 20,000 Cybertrucks. There is a tiny chance Cybertruck production this year will exceed what peak Semi production will look like. When does the new semi production line start up? I think we’re a little ways off from that.
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Depends on the timeframe, and we are splitting hairs because neither is likely to be shipping in high volumes by the end of the year.
Elon is on the record as predicting a slow ramp for the CT, hard to know exactly what that means, and even Tesla probably only have a rough idea of how the first 3-6 months of the ramp will go.
But CT shipping in any volume is a big leap forward.
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