Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[H Mak]

I like the small price increase on Model Ys. A warning to buyers that prices don't drop forever...and to stop putting off their Tesla purchase. And giving them a chance to get in before prices (hopefully, from an investor perspective) go up more significantly.

With other OEMs now dialing down their EV production, maybe demand for Teslas has gone up some.

I don't want Teslas to be expensive for the consumer, but the margin drops have hurt our portfolios, so from an investor perspective price increases sure make me feel better...

The coup de grâce is lower prices for the consumer and higher margins for the investor. Now, if there's one company that can achieve that ...

 

[capster]

My probably very unpopular opinion is that Tesla should cave in and give them what they want, cash or stock options (maybe the latter is better). Tesla has the cash at hand, and it's probably not worth the backlash and the headache. Tesla is Tesla because it's workforce: if they deliver, they should get what they're due.

Tesla should stand firm because unions most everywhere, especially those with a relation to ICE car manufacturing, have a variety of motives to try to slow Tesla down.

I do think Tesla should be a little bit sensitive to the optics. Though they needn’t be overly concerned because the FUD will continue at full volume regardless and "union bashing" will likely sell Tesla products in some circles.

Also, walking away from Sweden entirely should be an option. Doing so would send a salutary message to governments with any awareness of the energy transformation and the likely impact of lack of participation in it on their country’s economy.

 

[Buckminster]

Typically cynical view from Troy:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1717913445251666152

 

[2daMoon]

There appears to be a remote chance that GM may be unable to deliver on the promises they have made...

Lars offers his perspective as he goes over the partnership choices and failed plans and promises Mary has shared to date. A nice recap for any who haven't been following the game closely. Mary emBarrasing for GM.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

Yeah, it’s a big deal that the fact it’s coming from Tesla and will be known by nobody outside this tiny TMC thread world.

Just you watch what happens. Praise for other charging networks while either ignoring Tesla’s, Tesla, and the fact it’s Tesla’s invention, hardware, software and standard etc.

And no, I don’t think ‘monopoly’ was or should be a ‘worry’. I’m really, really, really annoyed that the people and company that worked their butts off, that had to take all the ridicule and doubt, are now being effectively ignored and vanished. This is exactly how history gets lost and rewritten.

Absolutely hate (and I rarely use that strong, dirty word) what’s happening.

ADDING!!! For all those people so pro-advertising you should be incensed. By rebranding the standard AND then rebranding the units, an incalculable amount of free advertising has been given away. Like billions of dollars worth.

The first person who comes onto TMC and posts BP (or whomever) has a charging network as good as Tesla’s; I’m going to invite them to The Mountain and then push them off the side.

Your attitude about this really surprises me. How is this not good for the mission? Tesla shouldn't have to do it all by themselves, and it's not like we, as fans of the mission, can't put "Tesla Inside" stickers on them, but lets wait and make sure BP maintains them properly first.

 

[Electroman]

A 5% bump in interest rate on a car loan does not REMOTELY offset a 25% cut on the opening balance.

I think you are missing the spirit of Gigapress's message. The car loan might be marginally lower due to dramatic cut in Telsa pricing, but overall the purchasing power of the consumer for luxury or premium items has come down due to inflation (and interest rates) and people are more cautious now.

Someone willing to pay $1000/month on a car loan in early 2022 is now balking at that big number as groceries and other essentials have skyrocketed and started eating into their budget. A gallon of organic milk in Walmart is $8.20 which was $4.80 two years ago.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

heltok said: (I'm to lazy to 'extract' the quote...)
"IF Metall is blocking the transport of spare parts, which means that Tesla's workshops cannot repair other cars except those that are Tesla's."

What the heck, no impact to Tesla repairs, only the non-Tesla's sit for parts? Shooting their foot while frustrating non-Tesla owners? Seems like it would hurt Union workers and ICE (or other non-Tesla) customers much more than Tesla. I assume these are existing Collision shops in Sweden also doing Tesla's on the side, likely certified by Tesla? There's a shop in Tempe Az that started this way and now doing primarily Tesla's. But it is not Tesla and the shop is entirely grateful for all the Tesla business $$$!

So IDK if we're talking the same here in Sweden. If it is a body shop, and there's enough volume, the solution could be to dedicate shops as Tesla SC. But the outlying areas may have to drive far for body service and sounds like you don't want to piss off the union here.

Also, it seems like Tesla was eluding to using Replacement workers for strikers from outside the country. It was shot down at the end of the story, while Tesla's like "We'll get back to you." Sounds like Tesla is looking for a loophole or a plan B vs coming to some agreement (which could set precedence). I don't know what conditions they are objecting, that's still not clear or I missed it.

I'm not sure the conflict has reached the "blocking the transport of spare parts" stage yet...

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

...] Are you sure their demands are 100% reasonable? What if they were like the UAW's where they were asking for 40%+ pay raise [...

They are not asking for a 40%+ pay raise. At least not relative to industry 'average' pay for these positions in Sweden.

The main thing the union want's here is a Collective agreement. Every other company of this size in this sector in Sweden has a Collective agreement. Tesla is the only company that doesn't.

 

[MP3Mike]

Every other company of this size in this sector in Sweden has Collective agreement.

That isn't a good reason for Tesla to enter into a Collective agreement.

 

[MountainRatMat]

Your attitude about this really surprises me. How is this not good for the mission? Tesla shouldn't have to do it all by themselves, and it's not like we, as fans of the mission, can't put "Tesla Inside" stickers on them, but lets wait and make sure BP maintains them properly first.

What a great idea, hope Tesla does that themselves: "BP Chargers, Made on Earth by Humans (robots) at Tesla"

 

[Todd Burch]

Typically cynical view from Troy:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1717913445251666152

I love how he talks as if he knows everything as fact. Not "I think the recent micro price increase" but "The recent micro price increase".

And if it's a price drop, it's a "slash". If an increase, it's a "micro increase". $500 in the US and $1000+ or whatever it was in China is not a "micro increase". If Tesla makes $4000 profit on a typical Model Y (I forget the actual number), $500 is a 12.5% boost. Pretty significant.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

That isn't a good reason for Tesla to enter into a Collective agreement.

The labour sector/market in Sweden is 'quite different' compared to what it is in the US. In Sweden 72% of women and 65% of men are members of a union.

Source (in Swedish):

Högre andel kvinnor än män fackligt anslutna

Det är vanligare att personer med tjänstemannayrken är med i facket än att de med arbetaryrken är det. Statistiken visar också att en högre andel kvinnor än män är medlemmar i fackliga organisationer.

www.scb.se

But I'm not here to take this debate. I've just clarified some things (hopefully) and perhaps also made one correction...

 

[SOULPEDL]

heltok said (I'm to lazy to 'extract' the quote...)
"IF Metall is blocking the transport of spare parts, which means that Tesla's workshops cannot repair other cars except those that are Tesla's."


I'm not sure the conflict has reached the "blocking the transport of spare parts" stage yet...

Is this like a shop that was formerly doing collision repair on ICE, then certified to also do Tesla? That's like our shop in Tempe. It's not a Tesla shop and been there before Tesla.

Assuming that's the same scenario in Sweden, it would be the owner and employees of the shop who suffer due to a lack of work (on ICE, due to any spares blockade). Like @heltok mentioned, this would not hurt Tesla directly. I might even add, except as a scapegoat for someone to blame?

However, if they were all to strike, then Tesla repairs could halt as well, correct? That's where the replacements workers come in which is taboo in Sweden culture. And there's the rub it seems. Do I have this right? Thanks for your view.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

Is this like a shop that was formerly doing collision repair on ICE, then certified to also do Tesla? That's like our shop in Tempe. It's not a Tesla shop and been there before Tesla.

Assuming that's the same scenario in Sweden, it would be the owner and employees of the shop who suffer due to a lack of work (on ICE, due to any spares blockade). Like @heltok mentioned, this would not hurt Tesla directly. I might even add, except as a scapegoat for someone to blame?

However, if they were all to strike, then Tesla repairs could halt as well, correct? That's where the replacements workers come in which is taboo in Sweden culture. And there's the rub it seems. Do I have this right? Thanks for your view.

I'm honestly not really sure about the answer to this. Maybe someone else is...

 

[Usain]

I love how he talks as if he knows everything as fact. Not "I think the recent micro price increase" but "The recent micro price increase".

The fact that it's Troy's opinion is already assumed.

(See what I did there?)

 

[unk45]

This is interesting - I thought that Tesla was limited by production of superchargers, but I guess that is not so hard to ramp up.. Yet another revenue stream! Looking at the numbers for how expensive other charging hardware appears to be (from recent bids for US charging infrastructure discussed here), should be possible to get a good margin and still be cheaper. On the other hand, number of chargers will stay quite small compared to cars produced and quite cheap in comparison to utility storage, so not a major contribution to revenue.

https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/news-and-insights/press-releases/bp-boosts-ev-charging-network-with-100-million-dollar-order-of-tesla-ultra-fast-chargers.html

EDIT: The Limiting Factor has has a slide on charger cost compared to competition from the Investor Day:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1717579576950296973

Am I incorrect in observing that The Limiting Factor is equating Tesla const fo installed supercharger when the BP deal appears to be equipment only? The DC charger costs are also slightly difficult to equate since some offer only the DC charger to vehicle equipment and others supply grid to charger to vehicle equipment.

Tesla has sold battery storage only to EA and others, has sold complete grid to vehicle to others (e.g Jordan, Lanai, Russia [the latter a long time ago, pre-invasion] so any direct inferences about the BP deal really depend on the scope, which is not defined publicly thus far AFAIK.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Still can get in cheap y'all!!! plus, i did not know losing over $500k/per vehicle sold is good for any business

 

[unk45]

U.S automakers throwing in the towel AFTER the IRA has passed? What a plot twist. At this rate they should just rename the IRA to the Tesla Tax Credit Act.

Wonderful! That means all the FUD about Tesla subsidies might actually come true!/s
Of course it will not near oil depletion allowances but it would be a beginning. NOT/s

 

[heltok]

Is this like a shop that was formerly doing collision repair on ICE, then certified to also do Tesla? That's like our shop in Tempe. It's not a Tesla shop and been there before Tesla.

Assuming that's the same scenario in Sweden, it would be the owner and employees of the shop who suffer due to a lack of work (on ICE, due to any spares blockade). Like @heltok mentioned, this would not hurt Tesla directly. I might even add, except as a scapegoat for someone to blame?

However, if they were all to strike, then Tesla repairs could halt as well, correct? That's where the replacements workers come in which is taboo in Sweden culture. And there's the rub it seems. Do I have this right? Thanks for your view.

The summary from summarize.tech had a few errors. Anyway the strike has now expanded to included Transport(transport union) and they will not release Tesla cars from the boats:

sympati för IF Metall

Svenska Transportarbetareförbundet är facket för dig som är chaufför, väktare, renhållningsarbetare med flera yrken.

www-transport-se.translate.goog

When does the sympathy measure start and which workplaces are affected?​

The sympathy measure comes into force on 7 November 2023 at 12.00 noon .

The sympathy measure involves a blockade against all loading and unloading of Tesla cars in the following four Swedish ports:

Malmö – (Copenhagen Malmö Port AB)
Södertälje – (Södertälje Hamn AB)
Gothenburg – (Logent Ports & Terminal AB Gothenburg)
Trelleborg – (Trelleborg Hamn AB)

The sympathy measure applies until further notice or until a collective agreement is signed between IF Metall and TM Sweden AB, Tesla.

 

[unk45]

Nah. Just cause and effect. Because of the UAW deal, the big three can no longer afford to invest in EVs. It was always going to be a tough road, even with the IRA. Now it's looking nearly impossible. I'm afraid that they have no other choice but to milk the ICE business as long as they can and pray for a miracle.

The ironic thing is that Stellantis has been pursuing that strategy all along. Now they look like the smart ones.

Have you looked at Stellantis outside North America?
NA has been their recidivist element since acquisition. OTOH the Jeep BEV is promising where it's being produced and sold, as are their BEV light trucks and other lines.
For sure they'll not alienate their NA Luddites, especially when RAM minted money prior to what it will be post-UAW settlement.