Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Buckminster]

Threads of the day:
Supercharger Revenue Spin-off thread minus the spin-off chat so far
Near-future quarterly financial projections pls don’t clutter this thread
Project Dojo - the SaaS Product? Dojo could be to 2025 what superchargers are to 2023

 

[betstarship]

Wow, AH is awesome

 

[H Mak]

I guess I'm getting rewarded for awareness/research, ignoring FUD, patience, and time in the market. Anyone else feel strange about it?

That's what we are all getting rewarded for. I don't feel the least bit strange about it. It's investing, you take a risk with your own money.

 

[Rammstein]

Anyone else feel strange about it? That said, everyone I know admits they should have invested in TSLA long ago... But they still don't...

This always cracks me up. My friends always say they should have invested a long time ago but now it’s too late and they think I should diversify. I keep telling them they are going to keep saying this for years to come.

 

[2daMoon]

Wow, AH is awesome

I have a working theory that the SP is trying to catch up with that Upper Bollinger Band that took the lead again a few days back.

Watching this unfold is kinda like watching a cat chase a laser dot. .

 

[Mengy]

Most of the market was red today, and TSLA with a +5.34% day, and it's still running up in AH.



Feels good man.

 

[ThisStockGood]

Volumen was above average today, but not hyperbolic… impressive gain over 5 % and still counting in AH

I approve

 

[wipster]

Oh yeah baby, me likey after hours action today!

I am Bizzaro @AudubonB !!!

 

[betstarship]

so i am minding my own business, seeing patients on a Holiday at my Clinic. my wife, CEO of our company, comes in this afternoon and tells me that
there is potential risk of prescription lithium carbonate shortage by 2024 . never in my last 38+ years of medicine have i ever heard of lithium carbonate, which our Clinic widely prescribes for treatment of Bipolar disorder, suicidality, treatment refractory Depression etc being at risk of short supply. Lithium is a potentially life saving treatment and if LiCo3 goes into shortage it will have life-threatening consequences for psychiatric patients. ! i will send a tweet to Elon.

happy to dm and chat about mental health if you are, don't know how to help with the lithium and I did not know that was a problem in the space...

 

[JimS]

a part of me feels like my net worth isn't correlative to personal input of effort/value...

Message to that part of you:

You EARNED it!

 

[NicoV]

Four red days in the last 25 trading days. I wonder if this has ever happened in the past.
No doubt fueled by some short covering. Maybe the NACS domino is convincing some shorts that they actually should be long. Is Bill Gates still short TSLA?

 

[Big Time]

It seemed worth saying, nom, nom, nom.

Boy howdy, that was some delicious 'mandatory morning dip' today. Green, green guacamole, my favorite! Yummy!

Glad everyone brought chips as the dip bowl is still overflowing. If there are any leftovers, maybe they will keep until tomorrow.

You double dipped the chip!

 

[Troy]

I must be missing something. Troy's chart shows a positive jolt type change in Q2 when comparing month Jan to May then Feb to June. Like I said earlier, the table looks quite good to me. (Maybe I'm just an Optimus.)

Yes, in Europe, April+May is stronger than January+February but that's because sales are now split more evenly between the 3 months of the quarter. Let me explain this with a hypothetical chart. Each column represents a quarter and the total for each quarter in this example is 95,000 units but how that is split between the 3 months of the quarter changes over time.

This change is intentional. Tesla got tired of huge deliveries in the third month and wanted to split deliveries more evenly. In other words, they are reducing the quarterly delivery wave. To do that, they increased imports from China, and there is also production from Giga Berlin. As a result, there are more cars available to deliver early in the quarter.

The reality is more complicated and it's easier to understand if I switch to percentages instead of unit sales. Here is what actually happened in the last 4 quarters in Europe:

The first two months accounted for only 11.3% of sales in Q2 2022, then 22.6% in Q3 2022, and 39.8% in Q4 2022. Q1 2023 was a mess so, let's skip that but now in Q2 2023, the same trend continues with around 50% this time based on the latest data.

By the way, reducing the delivery wave has nothing to do with Q2 being weaker than Q1. The two are separate topics. Tesla is reducing the delivery wave and that's why April+May is stronger than the first two months of Q4 2022 or Q1 2023. On the other hand, Q2 happens to be a weaker quarter than Q1 in Europe based on the latest data.

 

[Mark Alset]

What just happened?!? There were a large number of Model 3, Y, S, X in inventory this weekend in my area. Just checked. Every single one is no longer listed on the Tesla website.

Inventory appears to be cleared out.

UPDATE: Now there are new cars in inventory again. They must have done something to the site temporarily.

 

[NicoV]

What just happened?!? There were a large number of Model 3, Y, S, X in inventory this weekend in my area. Just checked. Every single one is no longer listed on the Tesla website.

Inventory appears to be cleared out.

UPDATE: Now there are new cars in inventory again. They must have done something to the site temporarily.

Apparently they increased the discounts. In Belgium all Model S/X inventory now has around 7K euro discount, versus no discount this morning. Small or no discounts (<1K euro) on Model 3/Y inventory.

 

[jkirkwood001]

Isn't that the opposite of what you should do? Why not cash the June 2024's out now, while they're less-bad than a few months ago, then buy December 2025's so that you've got 18 more months of recovery time and way less Theta decay? In all probability, those last 18 months will include some amazing growth periods for TSLA.

Hop off that disintegrating, damaged elevator you're riding, and onto a newer one that's in better condition and ride it up instead for a better shot at dear life?

That said, this is not advice, and my greatest judgment flaw in LEAPS has been not selling when I should have, so YMMV.

Edit- sure, the December 2025's will cost you more, perhaps you'll end up with fewer contracts, but the reason for that is they're worth more, so IMHO, I don't really see the real loss in the transaction in the long run.

Can I just say, haven't we learnt by now that the bane of every options investor is when they say to themselves "In all probability, x will happen"?

Every time you say to yourself, "I believe x will happen", realize you're taking a chance, there's risk, that x will not happen, at least, not when you predict it.

But go ahead: invest in options if you dare. Just don't make it sound obvious that it will be the best choice. I think that's a mistake.

 

[Artful Dodger]

History tells us that whenever TSLA moves above the Artful Bollinger Bands, there is downward pressure on the stock.

Keep in mind folks that the Upper-BB closed at 280.66 today (so still some 'head-room' in the After-hrs session, SP now at $278.08 w. good volume).

MODS: Still unable to post images (problems began yesterday).

 

[CorneliusXX]

My portfolio's unrealized gains are increasing at a ridiculous rate. I'll take it, and I'm very happy, but a part of me feels like my net worth isn't correlative to personal input of effort/value...


This money concept is rigged... I guess I'm getting rewarded for awareness/research, ignoring FUD, patience, and time in the market. Anyone else feel strange about it? That said, everyone I know admits they should have invested in TSLA long ago... But they still don't...

HODL, cheers to the Longs!

 

[AudubonB]

Might I humbly beseech you to graciously expound upon the intricacies and nuances inherent in the words you have chosen to express, such that I may acquire a more comprehensive comprehension of the underlying essence and intended meaning encapsulated within your communication?

Naah.

 

[AudubonB]

@AudubonB never missed an issue of the Reader's Digest "Increase Your Word Power" page.

I wrote ‘em.