Only Germany and Uk had significant drops QoQ (France and Switzerland were the other lower areas).
Giga Berlin first started shipping to Taiwan at the end of Q4. Those vehicles reduced European supply.
Along with Israel:
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Near-future quarterly financial projections
- Thread starter luvb2b
- Start date
Only Germany and Uk had significant drops QoQ (France and Switzerland were the other lower areas).
Giga Berlin first started shipping to Taiwan at the end of Q4. Those vehicles reduced European supply.
Along with Israel:
petit_bateau
Active Member
Yes, and UK depends on RHD production out of China. That in turn needs to compete with China allocation that currently seems to be prioritised towards Canada.
My personal opinion is that cell supply remains the very limiting factor, and since the 4680 ramp is at the lower end of the pace we would like to see, then in some markets the trend can be flat or even down. It is generally down where the market is deprioritised vs shipping to other markets. So for sure, no shipping to Europe from USA at present (due to US IRA incentives).
Concerning COGS: does anyone have insight in salary increases at Tesla?
In Europe many employees are receiving wage increases of 5-10% this year as compensation for the high inflation. The increases are highest in industries with high union membership. There were a lot of strikes.
Union IG Metall, which also represents auto workers, reached an agreement for 8,5% extra in two years, plus a bonus of €3000. I wonder if the workers at Giga Berlin, who don’t seem to have high unionisation level, are also getting such a wage increase.
In Europe many employees are receiving wage increases of 5-10% this year as compensation for the high inflation. The increases are highest in industries with high union membership. There were a lot of strikes.
Union IG Metall, which also represents auto workers, reached an agreement for 8,5% extra in two years, plus a bonus of €3000. I wonder if the workers at Giga Berlin, who don’t seem to have high unionisation level, are also getting such a wage increase.
Hard to believe that there is solid information for June yet; 2/3 of deliveries have been last month of the quarter and it looks like sales are increasing about 5k/month over Q1 so I would be surprised if the final number is under 100k.
damonbrodie
Member
Doesn't Tesla use the "Contant Currency" for reporting? In the share deck for Q1 it said:
So for Q2, assuming the average exchange rates from the same quarter in 2022 these are the exchange rates I assume:
| Country | Q2 2023 (average from Q2 2022) |
|---|---|
| USA | 1.0000000 |
| Canada | 0.7838256 |
| Mexico | 0.0499545 |
| United Kingdom | 1.2575200 |
| Euro | 1.0656967 |
| Norway | 0.1065447 |
| Australia | 0.7153942 |
| South Korea | 0.0007936 |
| Japan | 0.0077191 |
| China | 0.1514178 |
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damonbrodie
Member
I pulled in the full inventory for all new inventory this morning for all Tesla markets and it came in at roughly 4200 vehicles At the discounted prices and converted to USD it comes in at $5.2B.
My method is likely the same as Matt's and it seems that will not pull in duplicate configs of vehicles, so it likely isn't a good representation of the full inventory.
The Accountant
Active Member
No. The income statement does not use constant currency. Too compute the impact of FX, you use constant currency and then compare this to actual currency exchange rates. That is what the footnote is saying (the footnote can be confusing).
Q1 2022 uses Q1 2022 avg rates
Q1 2023 uses Q1 2023 avg rates
To figure the currency impact you need to run the Q1 2023 financials with 2022 rates (constant currency) to see what impact currency had on the current quarter.
petit_bateau
Active Member
Well done for your scrape, and you sound like you've not yet been blocked by Tesla. Was that a global scrape, or just a US scrape ?
I suspect that scraping inventory in this manner fails to flush out vessels (and vehicles) in transit, e.g. between China and UK; or Germany and Taiwan; etc. My fag-packet-calcs are that in the last few quarters (i.e. as the wave is beginning to unwind) that these have been 50% of inventory.
By my reckoning at end of Q1-2023 there were approx 90,222 vehicles in inventory, being 16 days of sales using the 75d/qtr calc.
So 45k on the water or otherwise in transit - not unreasonable at (say) 7k per vessel, plus trains and transporters and in factory loading lots.
If so, and if Q2 is similar to Q1, that suggests that for each 1 car turned up in a scrape, then it in turn represents 10 cars with an identical configuration at that location, on average.
Hmmm .... seems a lot .... am I off in one or more of my thoughts ?
I have a sneaking suspicion that at least some of the vehicles shown in inventory as 'Coming Soon' on the Tesla UK site are vehicles that are in transit from China.
Are there similar vehicles shown as 'Coming Soon' on other Tesla European web sites?
Does this apply to revenues only, or every line item in the P&L?
When spelled out this way it doesn't sound like it is a good comparative metric as it isn't directly comparable to any information in the prior year's P&L given other timing/scaling/operating changes in the year- but maybe I haven't thought it through enough.
The Accountant
Active Member
It applies to every line on the P&L. It does impact comparisons to prior years and that's why Tesla will provide information in commentary on the Fx impact. Put the net impact is not as large on the bottom line because if currency decreases revenues in one quarter, it will likely decrease costs too.
For example, the weak Yuan will results in the Shanghai costs translating to less US$ in Q2.
By having operations in China and Berlin, Tesla creates a natural currency hedge. I wrote about this here:
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
This is bizarre. I've seen this wick down to $159.23 several times now. Would this be someone selling a share back and forth between accounts, with tight limits, just to "paint the tape" momentarily. I don't recall seeing this before, that wasn't likely from someone exercising options. Quite...
teslamotorsclub.com
damonbrodie
Member
Ok - I've been back and forth on this a couple times.
Can you explain your understanding of how the revenue for a foreign sold car is recorded?
Would they take the sales on any given day and convert it using that day's exchange rate to USD? Something else?
The Accountant
Active Member
Tesla has legal entities in dozens of countries and those legal entities record transaction in their financial books in local currency.
The German legal entity in Euros, China in Yuan, S Korea in Won, Canada in Can$, etc.
Each month, these legal entities report their balance sheet and income statement to corporate (Austin) denominated in their local currency.
Tesla Corporate (Austin) translates the Income Statement to US$ using the month's average exchange rate and they translate the balance sheet at the month-end exchange rate. So for the income statement in Q2, April uses Apr avg, May uses May avg and June uses Jun Avg. I use the Qtr average because we don't have access to monthly financials - just the quarterly numbers.
I hope this helps; if not let me know if you need more clarification.
damonbrodie
Member
Edit - Part of my post went away:
I'm wondering what people include when they talk about ASP. For example:
Sum of:
- Total Automotive Revenues
- exclude Auto Leasing?
- exclude Regulatory Credits?
Divided by:
- Total vehicle deliveries
- Minus Leased vehicles?
Just want to know if I'm comparing apples to apples....
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The Accountant
Active Member
Doggydogworld
Active Member
He has inventory growing to roughly one month, which is a good number. Tesla's lack of inventory has cost them sales in the past, but they don't need to carry 60-90 days like legacy used to (and sometimes still does).
I don't put too much stock in his Q4 forecast. In the last few months he changed his Q2 China estimate from 122k to 153k. He does a spectacular job tracking current and near-future sales trends, but every crystal ball is cloudy more than a few months out. Even if he's right and we only see 19k unit growth from Q2 to Q4, it won't be the first flat spot in Tesla's history. We all know the next leg up will be driven by CT and Model 2. The exact timing isn't that important.
damonbrodie
Member
I think he's extra conservative. He's likely hedging that the M3 lines will come down at some point for Highland updates.
Gary Black estimates 450K for this Q which is a bit above WS consensus.
Hard to take Troy's numbers for Berlin seriously. I'm skeptical of the Fremont numbers for the 3 and S/X as well for that matter. Shanghai is a bit of a black box so I can give him the benefit of the doubt.
For Berlin, they had hit the 5k/week milestone before the end of Q1, and are likely at 6k by now, for an average of maybe 5300/week. Austin is likely a bit behind that, maybe closer to 4,000/week average.
I'll be disappointed if the S/X doesn't deliver 20k units.
For Berlin, they had hit the 5k/week milestone before the end of Q1, and are likely at 6k by now, for an average of maybe 5300/week. Austin is likely a bit behind that, maybe closer to 4,000/week average.
I'll be disappointed if the S/X doesn't deliver 20k units.
petit_bateau
Active Member
Troy's production numbers by model and factory for Q1 are likely pretty close to the reality given his sources. Whether his numbers for Q2 are as close is hard to be sure (yet) but I have no reason to think he is going to be far out.
Some comments just looking at the production numbers:
1) Cell supply really is the limiting constraint for 3/Y, and they are pacing line volume and marketing incentives to that. The 3/Y at Fremont and Shanghai are basically flat and the Y ramps at Austin and Berlin are being choked to match cell availability.
2) This shows up very clearly in the comparison of current and historical ramp rates. The 4680 ramp is not where they had hoped it would be and whilst the LFP/etc into Berlin is helping that is not a complete substitute. There is only 6-months to sort this 4680 ramp out before the Cybertruck starts ramping and becoming yet another cell consumer, and very likely a big one.
3) Also - if Troy's numbers are correct for Q2 something is affecting Q2 S/X production and in this case I don't think it is 2170 cell supply. I've considered whether it might be the Semi ramp but that is not sufficient. If (say) there are 40 Semis made in Q2 then that is equivalent to approximately 400 S/X in cell terms, yet the Q2 production shortfall in cell terms is more like 4,000 of the S/X going by Troy's numbers. If his numbers are correct then perhaps we are seeing a marketing constraint in this instance, perhaps driven by a desire to hold margins high (i.e. only produce Plaid versions). Or perhaps it is a desire to keep manufacturing simple and only produce LHD versions, and the missing 4,000 therefore represents the mormal take of the RHD versions. I don't know the answer, and it could be a myriad other things.
4) At this rate cell supply is going to make it difficult to hit 1.8m by year end.
5) I wish Tesla would start putting the Semi numbers in the P&D as I am building an error term in my totals, which is entirely driven by the number that we know (from other sources) that have been produced but not yet included. Grr.
Some comments just looking at the production numbers:
1) Cell supply really is the limiting constraint for 3/Y, and they are pacing line volume and marketing incentives to that. The 3/Y at Fremont and Shanghai are basically flat and the Y ramps at Austin and Berlin are being choked to match cell availability.
2) This shows up very clearly in the comparison of current and historical ramp rates. The 4680 ramp is not where they had hoped it would be and whilst the LFP/etc into Berlin is helping that is not a complete substitute. There is only 6-months to sort this 4680 ramp out before the Cybertruck starts ramping and becoming yet another cell consumer, and very likely a big one.
3) Also - if Troy's numbers are correct for Q2 something is affecting Q2 S/X production and in this case I don't think it is 2170 cell supply. I've considered whether it might be the Semi ramp but that is not sufficient. If (say) there are 40 Semis made in Q2 then that is equivalent to approximately 400 S/X in cell terms, yet the Q2 production shortfall in cell terms is more like 4,000 of the S/X going by Troy's numbers. If his numbers are correct then perhaps we are seeing a marketing constraint in this instance, perhaps driven by a desire to hold margins high (i.e. only produce Plaid versions). Or perhaps it is a desire to keep manufacturing simple and only produce LHD versions, and the missing 4,000 therefore represents the mormal take of the RHD versions. I don't know the answer, and it could be a myriad other things.
4) At this rate cell supply is going to make it difficult to hit 1.8m by year end.
5) I wish Tesla would start putting the Semi numbers in the P&D as I am building an error term in my totals, which is entirely driven by the number that we know (from other sources) that have been produced but not yet included. Grr.
