Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tony73]

Apparently McKenzie Scott unloaded $10 Billion worth of Amazon last year and at no point was anyone the wiser till she filed.

https://www.reuters.com/business/mackenzie-scott-trims-amazon-stake-by-10-billion-bloomberg-news-2024-01-27/

Hopefully Elon is watching.

Edit: She owned under 5% so she didn’t need to file.

 

[FastEddieB]

hearing aides just increase the noise level input, so you get louder noise and _no_ increase in comprehension

Not my experience. With moderate hearing loss, I was surprised that the hearing aids I got (from Costco) did not make things louder at all - they just boost my deficient frequencies to make sounds "crisper" or "brighter". Certainly helps with voices in particular. It's mainly when going without I'm reminded at how muddy things are without them, though for the most part I can manage reasonably well.

But stipulated the cochlear implants appear to be a godsend for this with more profound hearing loss.

 

[SOULPEDL]

We all know that CT will not be sold in very large numbers and it will not add significantly to total deliveries, but CT represents way more that just growth numerically. Its impact if far wide and not easily quantifiable. For example:

1. Consider CT as investment for advertisement. Every single CT being sold represents an ad. That is exactly the reason multiple CT are touring China, CT will pull crowds in the stores and people will learn about Tesla and likely end up buying model 3/Y.

2. 48 volt architecture- gigabit ethernet cabling for data and 48 volt power on same cable ( decrease in copper use/other efficiencies) is establishing groundwork for these technologies to slowly transition to all other platforms CT to next gen, then model s/x and then 3/y.

3. Achieving next level of vertical integration- from Batteries (4680) to all the chips running on 48 V, the benefits from this will take few years to manifest. Tesla's lithium refinery near corpus christie TX seems to be ahead of schedule (no analyst thought of it/or asked about it), this is the edge this forum provides. As few months/years go by, the impact of such deep integration (including lithium refinery) will be self evident. It is mind boggling to think how many start ups are encompassed in this one company -from material science/lithium refinery to software.

Only thing that deeply disappoints me is why every American (and for that matter every human being on earth) is not proud and supportive of Tesla.

I'm not for certain how far that 48 volts goes, but chips like really low voltages for efficiency/speed (~2V internally). Interesting to question even that assumption, right?

And I had no idea..."For Power over Ethernet devices (POE), the voltage can be as high as 48V with up to 5 Amps of current."
News to me!

 

[capster]

Okay, is it technically possible Tesla could hit 2.58M units in 2024? Sure, it is not an impossibility. However, given current capacities, realistic run rates and ramp rates (particularly for the CT), and Tesla's own guidance for this year to be a lower than normal growth year, I'd rate that possibility at about 2% likelihood.

I guess I was wrong?

When you say "realistic," I hear "pessimistic." No offense intended.

 

[Christine69420]

There are towns in Cornwall where my model S could not go. Not in terms of fitting side by side with a passing car, not in terms of only going if nobody was parked on the street, but in terms of the street being not as wide as the car...
The cybertruck would find half of cornwall undriveable. It would also have trouble just fitting in the road outside my house.

Very very few people will buy a vehicle that limits them to certain roads. The idea of paying £70,000 to buy car that meant you had to rely on park-and-ride buses is comical. Most people I talk to find the model Y to be way too big.

I am sure you are right. It would be silly to buy a car you could not use.

But most of Europe is not in Cornwall. I grew up in a small place in Norway with narrow roads. 80-90% too narrow for two cars to meet. But driving a Fiat Panda or a Cybertruck would make no difference. You would have to find a place to pass each other. Obviously we all got pretty good at driving in reverse. Well - all except for this one guy. There is always this one guy. And this other guy with the lead foot.

I have actually driven around in Cornwall in a MB S Class. It was doable. And I remember some roads we did not even try to enter. But we still had a great holiday.

 

[Christine69420]

So we have a major unsolved crime:

What are the hard to copy machines that build Redwood using unboxed method?

Must be bots right?

Right?

Right. Alexandra Mertz on X follow the job listings from Tesla. And among those they want people to help making robots. Not bipedal ones. But possibly with wheels. Which might fit right in with the cool Gen3 crowd.

If they want they could probably make more intelligent versions of the popular Kuka industrial robots. Who knows.

 

[Stretch2727]

So we have a major unsolved crime:

What are the hard to copy machines that build Redwood using unboxed method?

Must be bots right?

Right?

I was actually surprised by this comment as well as what they showed should not require new processes. To me it looks like, known process used in different ways. Obviously new assembly machines, but nothing that could not be copied. I am assuming castings, large stampings for outer body.

I don't think it is the bots as the bots mainly replace humans..and humans are readily available but maybe not easily copied. From the animation it is not some super mega casting when you cast the entire car.

To me the biggest challenge is the structural design. Building in 3-4 separate pieces then putting it together could be challenge for the structure at the interface points. Designed right, and with the help of a structural battery pack I am sure it can be done.

I do wonder if they could get the casting to have a good enough finish for some outer body elements but the animation they showed looked like painted stampings.

Yeah, so a mystery to me on what are the hard to copy machines.

 

[ZeApelido]

counting on tit for growth...

It usually works

 

[Mengy]

When you say "realistic," I hear "pessimistic." No offense intended.

None taken!

I admit I may seem pessimistic compared to many here on the forums, but IMHO some posters here are unrealistically optimistic. Or overly hopeful perhaps.

 

[jerry33]

I am sure you are right. It would be silly to buy a car you could not use.

But most of Europe is not in Cornwall. I grew up in a small place in Norway with narrow roads. 80-90% too narrow for two cars to meet. But driving a Fiat Panda or a Cybertruck would make no difference. You would have to find a place to pass each other. Obviously we all got pretty good at driving in reverse. Well - all except for this one guy. There is always this one guy. And this other guy with the lead foot.

I have actually driven around in Cornwall in a MB S Class. It was doable. And I remember some roads we did not even try to enter. But we still had a great holiday.

There are even similar roads in North America (albeit not many).

 

[OrthoSurg]

There are towns in Cornwall where my model S could not go. Not in terms of fitting side by side with a passing car, not in terms of only going if nobody was parked on the street, but in terms of the street being not as wide as the car...
The cybertruck would find half of cornwall undriveable. It would also have trouble just fitting in the road outside my house.

Very very few people will buy a vehicle that limits them to certain roads. The idea of paying £70,000 to buy car that meant you had to rely on park-and-ride buses is comical. Most people I talk to find the model Y to be way too big.

I drove 3000 km in the Italian Dolomites in a Ford Galaxy van with my wife, the kids and my bike box. The days I was climbing the mountains on my bike were so less stressful the days on the narrow Italian roads. One day I brought my wife and kids on Monte Crostis panoramic road. You are driving on the edge of a valley for 20k. My oldest son once said « Raise your hands who think we will fall in the valley » all my kids rose their hands. My wife has he eyes closed and I was regretting bribing my family there on what seemed a nice panoramic view the same morning I did the ride on my road bicycle. I expect the cybertruck to be the best selling pick up truck in the US like the Model Y became the most sold car in the world. But it might need a smaller European version to become the best selling vehicle worldwide. I never saw an army of F150 pick up trucks in the smaller road of Europe and don’t expect to see it with the cybertruck. I thought SP would be at ATH like NVDA with all the cybertruck deliveries happening right now the market being forward looking but hey, the market is always right, I guess.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Yeah, so a mystery to me on what are the hard to copy machines.

Look at Sandy Munro's tour of the Tesla CT production line at Giga Texas. Expect more of the same kinds of innovation. Just one example was the steel rolling mill, another was the brass-lined alumimun die press for stamping door 'inners'. You can expect more of the same. This isn't catalog engineering, you can't buy this tooling from existing 3-party suppliers.

Tesla Manufacturing: See how the Cybertruck HFS Panels are Blanked, Bent, and Built! | Munro Live (Dec 19, 2023)

 

[M|S|M MYP]

OT OT
(tho kinda if thinking abt neuralink, similar as 8 electrodes implanted but in ear with external tiny computer processor)
@Snerruc
hearing aides just increase the noise level input, so you get louder noise and _no_ increase in comprehension
Cochlear implants are _way_ better.
single data point
1% to 80+% increase in comprehension of spoken words, after re-training brain.
(from profoundly deaf to hearing a _lot_ better and comprehension way better)
(plus, you can blue tooth directly into the electrodes!)

When my hearing goes, i will diligently do more of what i do now, Not listening to MSM

 

[SOULPEDL]

You are driving on the edge of a valley for 20k. My oldest son once said « Raise your hands who think we will fall in the valley » all my kids rose their hands.

Crazy story. Poor kids!!!
Reminds me of the old road to Apache Lake in Az, towing a boat and long sections of the road where only 1 vehicle could fit pass. Both scary and stressful. But hey... what a view!

 

[mongo]

I'm not for certain how far that 48 volts goes, but chips like really low voltages for efficiency/speed (~2V internally). Interesting to question even that assumption, right?

All modules have local DCDC converters for microprocessor power. This only changes the input voltage to that converter.

2. 48 volt architecture- gigabit ethernet cabling for data and 48 volt power on same cable ( decrease in copper use/other efficiencies) is establishing groundwork for these technologies to slowly transition to all other platforms CT to next gen, then model s/x and then 3/y.

And I had no idea..."For Power over Ethernet devices (POE), the voltage can be as high as 48V with up to 5 Amps of current."

Important clarification: Tesla does not have power and data on the same wires (but the power and data wires are in the same cable). They are also using one pair automotive Ethernet (1000BASE-T1), not typical four pair gigabit ethernet (1000BASE-T)

 

[unk45]

...

Very very few people will buy a vehicle that limits them to certain roads. The idea of paying £70,000 to buy car that meant you had to rely on park-and-ride buses is comical. Most people I talk to find the model Y to be way too big.

For some reason this point is often misinterpreted. It is precisely the navigability of very narrow places that makes most Japanese cities and much of Europe, or even 'modern' places in cities elsewhere that have urban centers built before automobiles.

The reality is that many such places are not so much price-sensitive as they are size-sensitive and often more width-sensitive than length-sensitive.

The new smaller Tesla can very well have wonderful sales for the very well-equipped and/or high performance versions.

Many of us keep repeating this basic truth, then others repeat small must be cheap.

That is partly why many very successful small vehicles come in very enhanced versions. Locally for me I regularly have a ride in a luxurious version of a Toyota Corolla. They exist. I would never buy one of those.
For context just compare Porsche 911 at 1852mm width and 4519 length with Toyota Corolla at 1780 width and 4630 length. Both are quite compact. They do appeal to very different buyers, even though both navigate tight places pretty well.

For the share price pessimists who see shrinking margins on smaller Tesla, just remember they have manufacturing efficiency AND the capacity to produce some quite high margin content .

 

[hobbes]

FSD 12 with a referee (o.k., at least he had not as much coolaid as Omar):

Seems promising. Also I don´t think he has put out so many videos in such a short time before, should make it harder to cherry pick.. or am I the one drinking the coolaid now?

 

[CHGolferJim]

Apparently McKenzie Scott unloaded $10 Billion worth of Amazon last year and at no point was anyone the wiser till she filed.

https://www.reuters.com/business/mackenzie-scott-trims-amazon-stake-by-10-billion-bloomberg-news-2024-01-27/

Hopefully Elon is watching.

Edit: She owned under 5% so she didn’t need to file.

The question is how?

 

[2daMoon]

OT OT
(tho kinda if thinking abt neuralink, similar as 8 electrodes implanted but in ear with external tiny computer processor)
@Snerruc
hearing aides just increase the noise level input, so you get louder noise and _no_ increase in comprehension
Cochlear implants are _way_ better.
single data point
1% to 80+% increase in comprehension of spoken words, after re-training brain.
(from profoundly deaf to hearing a _lot_ better and comprehension way better)
(plus, you can blue tooth directly into the electrodes!)

Might be able to install in teenage burger flippers to make them more useful too?

 

[Cult Member]

To me the biggest challenge is the structural design. Building in 3-4 separate pieces then putting it together could be challenge for the structure at the interface points.

I came to a similar conclusion and focus on the interface points. Maybe they try to build a kind of hybrid connection for electric and cooling with the required physical strength. You do see connections with a combination of high power electric, communication and pressure lines today. Why not scale this concept to a new level?