Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

If you look at the trend, Tesla is growing AI spending faster than the Big 4 AI.

The difference is Tesla is developing DOJO. In 2 years Tesla will be getting 10x the training compute for one quarter of the cost. Tesla is already the world leader in inference compute.

 

[2daMoon]

"There will be new models".

The statement "We have updated our future vehicle line-up to accelerate the launch of new models" reads to me as "We were working on really fancy new stuff, but we now need to get new models out and cost reductions sooner than the really fancy new stuff could deliver, so we're going to use our current platforms and make what fancy new changes we can make quickly to _try_ _to_ deliver profitable new vehicles.

Talk about reading between the lines. You are very imaginative, but what you added is idle speculation to support your own bias.

What was actually said is quoted. Take it or leave it. No need for further interpretation, it speaks for itself.

They haven't yet done what they need to do to deliver those potential, profitable new vehicles.

Um, yeah, this is why they mention "accelerate the launch of new models" prefaced in a future tense.

They haven't done it yet. How brilliant that you could pick this out from the obvious.

It's nothing to do with FUD. It's just that the sales reductions have caused Musk to change the company's direction and there's nothing to reveal.

So, are you saying there has been no FUD at all after Roadster, Semi, and Cybertruck were announced? Really?

This FUD that didn't happen in no way could have influenced changing strategy on how and when they announce new models going forward, in order to avoid unnecessary FUD

Folks on this forum have pointed out this change in how they release information in quarterly meetings to keep their cards closer to the vest. This has been noted for a while, and the choice to do so is likely strategic.

Edit: had to apply the "reply with fewer lines than the troll" strategy...

 

[ggies07]

This tweet had me thinking about the mission statement again. Since the beginning, I've always heard people go to work for Tesla due to the mission. They work hard for the mission. They sacrifice their time for the mission.

We obviously see the company has pivoted to AI/bots now. Yeah, I'm not sure how many now are going to want to work their ass off for some robots/robotaxi. sorry. That does not help the acceleration to sustainability. That's not as easy to get behind as making the world a better place. When Elon talks about bots, it's the economy. That's not inspiring. hahaha.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1785917567183237428

 

[SO16]

If I want to hear the bear thesis, I can find it practically everywhere else. Almost every media article, most X posts, most interviews on MSM and many other threads on this forum. Would be nice to have one thread that is full of bear spray.

It’s good to understand the full picture but I find many of the bear arguments to be short term noise and completely worthless to LONG TERM INVESTORS. Ie decade plus.

 

[Krugerrand]

"There will be new models".

The statement "We have updated our future vehicle line-up to accelerate the launch of new models" reads to me as "We were working on really fancy new stuff, but we now need to get new models out and cost reductions sooner than the really fancy new stuff could deliver, so we're going to use our current platforms and make what fancy new changes we can make quickly to _try_ _to_ deliver profitable new vehicles.

Yeah, it seems completely wrong, useless, and illogical to just read/hear the words given. It’s so much more accurate to invent one’s own interpretative dance.

 

[jerry33]

I believe there is good data showing that Japanese youth are abandoning car ownership. This however is in a nation of terrible highway infrastructure and great mass transport so I don't know if it is indicative of a trend + or - for TaaS. Certainly the mass transport is more sustainable and car use in Japan was very very low and yet sales were moderate. Guaranteed profits for the Japanese auto industry and thus more important for those conglomerates than the worlds OEMs at large.

Not to mention most people in Japan now live in mega-cities with terrible traffic and rural areas are being abandoned.

 

[Krugerrand]

(because they won't quit as long as they're getting fed).

- or banned. Still waiting. There must not yet be a preponderance of evidence.

 

[Knightshade]

I refuse to believe this little court is unaccountable to the appeals process, an essential element of the rule of law. Can anyone explain Tesla’s future recourse whatever the output from the DE court?

Once the current case has a final order entered Tesla can appeal to the Delaware supreme court.

Right, but if the shareholders reapproved the comp plan (the defeat of which was the entire point of the lawsuit) that seems a strong basis to indicate the lawsuit had zero value add to the shareholders and thus is worth somewhere between zero and a negative number.

And Tesla will still have time in their submissions schedule to point that out. The final recommendation for settlement will not be joint, Tesla will issue their own, and it'll reflect the shareholder vote.

Particularly interested in regard to payment of attorney's fees, after these scheduling shenanigans perpetrated by this judge. There should be some mechanism in law to address a judge using their power to bias a decision by changing the court schedule to avoid key evidence preceding their ruling on fees in this way.

That's not actually happening though- this is AD being hysterical- see above.

If the attorney fees are decided, and then can be held back from payment until the appeal is over, it won't matter. The appeal will still follow the Annual Meeting vote, which will overwhelmingly demonstrate that what the attorneys did was not in fact on behalf of the shareholders.

Exactly.

The dates are a nothingburger.

Meanwhile:

[*]Megapack production seems to continue to be awesome, and likely is benefiting from a serious drop in cell prices.[/LIST]

• 
  
  Is it? Many estimates previously here had Lathrop fully ramped by now, and income from it saving Q1-- which isn't quite what happened. This is more going fine but not as well as some hoped really.
  
  
  

  [*]FSD 12.3.6 is now in customers hands. Reviews are very very good.

  
  And very very bad. Like most updates some folks saw regressions (chuck cook had awful UPL results for example) and some folks saw improvements. Plus we learned pre-AMD cars are being further left behind the newer fleet. But as a point update it's unsurprising the changes aren't major.
  
  
  

  [*]We are about at the point where a lot of FSD trial subscriptions run out?

  
  Yes, but until we know the outcome I'm unsure why this'd be on a list of positives?
  
  
  

  [*]Semi factory is being built, China megapack factory was announced recently I think?

  
  Yes- both starting later than expected.
  
  

  Lots of good stuff is happening with Tesla that we ignore, because we like to argue about the latest thing. Also, its worth following AJ on twitter. (https://twitter.com/alojoh) He posts a ton of very informed analysis of rival car companies, and lets just say that all of them are having an absolutely disastrous few months, making Tesla look amazing in comparison.
  Roll on Q2.

  
  
  Aj's the guy who attacked the hell out of Troy, only to end up with Troys #s being vastly more accurate than his own.
  
  He gives strong James Stephenson vibes of posting lots of super-bullish pretty charts that don't pan out to accurate predictions.

 

[2daMoon]

This tweet had me thinking about the mission statement again. Since the beginning, I've always heard people go to work for Tesla due to the mission. They work hard for the mission. They sacrifice their time for the mission.

We obviously see the company has pivoted to AI/bots now. Yeah, I'm not sure how many now are going to want to work their ass off for some robots/robotaxi. sorry. That does not help the acceleration to sustainability.

What if it is just that you can't imagine how AI/Bots DOES help accelerate the mission?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla has received permission to trade emission credits in South Korea. Yet again, the temporary income is extended..

 

[alexxs88]

The difference is Tesla is developing DOJO. In 2 years Tesla will be getting 10x the training compute for one quarter of the cost. Tesla is already the world leader in inference compute.

That's beyond optimistic given the lack of performance of the D1 and Tesla's lack of investment compared to the competition.

 

[Krugerrand]

Lots of angst over the dismissal of the SC and Destination Charging teams, as well as some key departures.

As has been mention, Elon is in "Demon mode". It's one of the things I think sets him apart from most CEO's... his goals are such that he feels the need to keep his companies in "startup mode". The complacency that tends to develop with established companies is the antithesis to what he sees as critical to meeting his goals to combat existential crisis.

So, while steady progress may seem like good business, when he sees redundancy, waste, routine, etc... he's willing to wipe the slate and dig in again.

Is there risk in this? Yes.

Does it make shareholders nervous: Some, definitely.

Does he see risk in NOT doing it?: I think so.

Has it worked previously? Also, yes.


I believe it's why Tesla, after being in business for 20 years, has the nimbleness typically found in a startup, not a traditional manufacturer...

For those with angst, it’s proof they’ve never truly understood who or what they invested in.

I’ve been waiting for an Elon overhaul.

 

[sunwarriors]

Most other gas vehicles aren't either, the exception being MB, BMW, Stellantis, and scarce sports/hypercars (which is why Ferrari isn't really a fair comparison). Tesla's profit margin per car in 2023 was $8,279, compared to $9580 in 2022, over $6000 in 2021. Let's not try to argue that these aren't fat, fat margins.

I was curious what some gas car makes get per profit on a vehicle and the F150 (best selling truck, sells about ~800k a year) is insanely profitable which isn't a scarce sports/hypercar. Different articles:

https://johnadamsford.com/how-much-profit-does-ford-make-on-the-f-150

Ford Trucks Are Earning the Automaker a Whopping $14K in Profit Per Sale, on Average - Ford-Trucks.com

Things may not be great in general, but the Ford trucks side of the business is as profitable as it's ever been.

www.ford-trucks.com

When Tesla cuts the price of the MY from $68k to $43k, it's going to affect their profits bigly. Outside of raising prices back up to $65k+, those profits aren't going to magically come back and this is why Elon is in demon mode now as he's competing in a low margin business (and seems to want "out" of low investments moving forward...AI/FSD/RT or bust (mostly)).

 

[ggies07]

What if it is just that you can't imagine how AI/Bots DOES help accelerate the mission?

Nah, indirectly I can see it. I'm here. My post was talking more about a wider public view on how the company USED to have an inspiring mission theme, but does not look that way anymore.

 

[Krugerrand]

This tweet had me thinking about the mission statement again. Since the beginning, I've always heard people go to work for Tesla due to the mission. They work hard for the mission. They sacrifice their time for the mission.

We obviously see the company has pivoted to AI/bots now. Yeah, I'm not sure how many now are going to want to work their ass off for some robots/robotaxi. sorry. That does not help the acceleration to sustainability. That's not as easy to get behind as making the world a better place. When Elon talks about bots, it's the economy. That's not inspiring. hahaha.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1785917567183237428

People work there (and elsewhere) for a bunch of reasons. Once you’ve asked every single Tesla employee why they work there today, you’ve absolutely no idea or factual data on the topic.

Stop inserting your reality into other people’s.

 

[2daMoon]

For those with angst, it’s proof they’ve never truly understood who or what they invested in.

I’ve been waiting for an Elon overhaul.

It really seems as if he took advice from those around him and let things run, just to see if they might be right.

Once he realized the plans he let himself be talked out of were the right way to go he jumped back into the fray and started doing what Elon does best.

I'm happy to see this return to Test, Fail, Iterate, Repeat

 

[2daMoon]

Nah, indirectly I can see it. I'm here. My post was talking more about a wider public view on how the company USED to have an inspiring mission theme, but does not look that way anymore.

That doesn't matter. The "wider public" can be expected to initially lag when it comes to innovation and disruption.

Then, suddenly, once the grok gets grokked, they jump on the bandwagon.

Most of the wider public doesn't even know Tesla has a stated mission.

 

[thx1139]

I have a question. With the complete SC team let go what is the fate of SC under construction or in permit stage. How will they get completed without some sort of project management?

 

[scaesare]

This tweet had me thinking about the mission statement again. Since the beginning, I've always heard people go to work for Tesla due to the mission. They work hard for the mission. They sacrifice their time for the mission.

We obviously see the company has pivoted to AI/bots now. Yeah, I'm not sure how many now are going to want to work their ass off for some robots/robotaxi. sorry. That does not help the acceleration to sustainability. That's not as easy to get behind as making the world a better place. When Elon talks about bots, it's the economy. That's not inspiring. hahaha.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1785917567183237428

I disagreed because I don't think the company has pivoted to AI/bots and that is in opposition to the mission.

Elon sees FSD as critical to success, and has for a long time. And unlike other companies that rely on maps, semantic rule engines, etc... Tesla has focused on AGI as necessary for solving driving, as that's what humans do, and what the roadways are built for. It's very similar to recognizing that the environment is navigable by humans with vision, and that radar & lidar are complexities that can be counterproductive.

So, AGI is needed to enable FSD. And FSD is needed to accelerate the adoption of the platform. And that's needed to not turn earth in to a greenhouse.

Given that solving AGI also is a good chunk of the effort needed to produce a humanoid robot, and one of those is complimentary to Elon's overall goals (they'd be useful on mars for instance... and manufacturing cars...), he opted to embark on that journey as well. But they aren't stopping vehicles.

Kind of like solar and energy... were they directly applicable to cars?: No... and if anything, they competed for limited cell availabilty. But were they complimentary products that have paid off?... largely yes (moreso for storage than solar so far).

 

[Krugerrand]

It really seems as if he took advice from those around him and let things run, just to see if they might be right.

Right!? Everyone thinks they know better. Don’t micromanage, Elon. Let your top executives carry their weight; it’ll be fine. Advertise, Elon. Do this kind of vehicle, Elon. Do that, Elon.

Wrong. Every single time.

Complacency. Comfort. Bloat. Inaction. Tradition.

Yes, people of the I Know Better Clan, Elon makes mistakes. By far the biggest is letting others talk him out of what he believes needs to be done. Fortunately, he learns from his mistakes.

Once he realized the plans he let himself be talked out of were the right way to go he jumped back into the fray and started doing what Elon does best.

I'm happy to see this return to Test, Fail, Iterate, Repeat

Ditto.