Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
Status
Not open for further replies.
OMG, he really seems to believe all that bull*sugar* ...

I agree that BMW is truly in trouble. I had a look at BMW's next "Tesla killer" project, to see what effect this would have on $TSLA and market action, this is a CleanTechnica article about BMW's of their 'next' EV yesterday:

First and foremost, BMW is very much capable of designing very well looking, conservatively designed yet distinctive cars that many, including me, find beautiful:
2687d15a673842c7a20bfffdbe030e36.jpg


The BMW "iNext" is not such a car:

2018.11-BMW-iNext-World-Premiere-LA-Auto-Show-Presentation.jpg


Let's list all the obvious external deficiencies:
  • Suicide doors. Were it ever released it would be meme fodder and a constant source of embarrassing questions to owners: "Is this really safe? What if the kids open the door while the car is moving? What if it starts rolling after you left the car and the doors trap you in both directions? Aren't you scared?". They must be aware of it that this is a non-starter, so why even try?? If you want unified access to a larger interior, use ... something like falcon wing doors that move out of the way, or invent something even better if you think such a solution exists.
  • The fake grille at the nose, in a form that mimics a giant, smashed blue butterfly the car caught on the highway at 100 mph and smeared on its grille in one giant, sad mess. Firstly, it's in such a contrast with the smooth rest of a car that even drawing this on paper should have caused the designer to be fired. There not being anyone in the decision chain who said "hell no!" and that this was allowed to make it into the concept car is an epic fail of taste, IMHO.
  • An incompatible color palette with cold and warm colors, both accented: i.e. the blue glowing lines are a total miss IMHO. The organizers of the show apparently noticed this fail and added that blue-ish picture in the background, but it's only a workaround for this environment.
  • The embarrassingly futuristic look. Judging from their ICE offerings BMW understands it very well that most buyers of luxury cars do not want to gain attention - they want to drive an elegant, high quality car. The ones who want attention will buy a racing car or a supercar. I'm sure there are customers who'd love this, but I submit that the majority of mainstream customers won't.
Tesla understands this concept of designing conservatively yet giving futuristic functionality very well, so does BMW, Mercedes and Audi for their ICE offerings. Yet this concept car shows none of that understanding - it's almost as if they still didn't want their EV offerings to compete with their ICE offerings head-on. They are still struggling to create a 'new EV style', in the hope of fragmenting demand and protecting their existing customer base.

It won't work: the Model 3 is eating 3-series sales in the U.S. alive... The effect of the Model 3 on 3-series sales in Germany will I think be a wake-up call to BMW.

In fact IMO the Model 3 is large enough to drain demand from the BMW 5-series as well: it's as wide and as tall as a 5-series sedan, but a bit shorter - yet has comparable interior volume (and a frunk), which many Europeans would find an improvement over the 5-series because shorter cars are easier to park.

It doesn't get better if we look at the iNext interior:

2018.11-BMW-iNext-World-Premiere-LA-Auto-Show-Interior.jpg


  • I tentatively call this the "1960s sci-fi movies said hello!" look. There's absolutely nothing appealing (to me) about this look: it's a sterile hospital interior that doesn't give any safe place to sit.
  • Hardwood fail: the wasteful hardwood cover's striping is off and elongates a space that should be made visually wider. Also, hardwood cover doesn't exactly spell "eco friendly", if they wanted to create any green cred ... Also, hardwood tends to be pretty slippery when your shoes are even just a tiny bit wet, so people would put mats over this anyway - so why even bother?
  • The right side screen is rather distracting to the driver, and passengers would want to watch movies on it. Why create such a temptation?
  • All the geometric ratios are off - not a single golden ratio in sight. 3 different rectangles in an incoherent jumble. The rightmost screen also imbalances the visual impression, it's a clear answer to the "which is the largest, most expensive LCD screen you can fit in here??" question which should never have been asked. It's similar to a design West Coast Customs throws together in a week, for a rich customer with particularly bad taste.
  • The chrome steering wheel is a usability fail: the always moving glittery motion of reflections from the chrome distracts the driver all the time. Steering wheel and key portions of the front of a car should be matte black - with a few spots of white for horizontal surfaces if the interior is white.
I could go on and on... I realize that this is a "concept car", mostly for show, but still it's sending all the wrong signals.

TL;DR: the BMW iNext is not a Tesla killer, it's a BMW killer.
Electric EDSEL ?
 

James Stephenson‏ @ICannot_Enough

James Stephenson Retweeted StatsTesla

$TSLA daily trading volume has dropped substantially over the past week, from about 10M daily to about 3M. Why does that matter? Well, it ought to matter to anyone short Tesla (see comment below about Days to Cover):

James Stephenson added,

DtG4Y_2XgAIzvb7.jpg

12:55 PM - 29 Nov 2018

    1. 11h11 hours ago
      At 30M shares short and 3M shares average daily volume, it would take *10 trading days* to cover all shares short. That’s a lot longer sustained rally with upward price movement following positive Tesla news than if volume were at 10M daily (3 days to cover).

      DtMtw60U8AEcuNz.jpg

      2 replies2 retweets15 likes

    2. 11h11 hours ago
      If you didn’t understand any of the above, the key takeaway here is that if lower daily trading volumes are here to stay, it just got even more dangerous than it already was to short Tesla.
    3. James Stephenson on Twitter

With regards to shorts I recommend the last PC from Rob Maurer which has really some interesting insights:

Tesla Daily: Tesla News & Analysis by Rob Maurer on Apple Podcasts
 
I think we'll see poor volumes today too, everyone's waiting for news in the trade-wars, for better or worse.

I'm OK with it - we've had a real ride the last 6 months, some boring weeks while Tesla just go about producing cars without any drama, that's fine for me.

Interesting to note that October and November in Norway were sluggish, but deliveries have picked-up this week, so I guess a shipments came in http://teslastats.no/

It's also my opinion that Tesla will have been prioritizing US deliveries in light of the tax-credit situation.
 
Needs confirmation but looks like an internal Mail from Elon about the 1k, 50 UPH competition & burst rate:

Body production is the new bottleneck. Good to see that moving.

Current costs of SR/ 35k model is $ 38k

reneliu on Twitter

Interesting. AFAIK, body hasn't been a constraining factor since the very early days. According to the analyst visits, there didn't appear to be any constraints on scaling body to its design specs.

But of course, I'm sure body hasn't been their top priority.
 
  • Like
Reactions: SpaceCash
Interesting. AFAIK, body hasn't been a constraining factor since the very early days. According to the analyst visits, there didn't appear to be any constraints on scaling body to its design specs.

But of course, I'm sure body hasn't been their top priority.

Exactly, fix current bottle-neck, ramp up a bit, expose new bottle-neck, fix. Rinse - Repeat.

EDIT:I find Elon's email excellent - really making everyone feel responsible and involved. Good stuff!
 
Last edited:
The email also will go some way to the FUDsters claiming that Tesla would never produce the base model.

I wonder what they will consider an acceptable margin in order to start production? I also wonder if this includes the previously mentioned lower-cost battery pack?

The good part is that every $ they manage to get down to move the 35k model to break even is a $ for the MR and LR more on top of their margin. IOW the effort is in most areas of improvements I can think about beneficial for all 3s and has a strong leverage.
 
Needs confirmation but looks like an internal Mail from Elon about the 1k, 50 UPH competition & burst rate:

Body production is the new bottleneck. Good to see that moving.

Current costs of SR/ 35k model is $ 38k

reneliu on Twitter


DtPrGBjWkAAgx3z.jpg:large

Previous
Next




0 replies0 retweets0 likes

DtPrG4nWoAACSYu.jpg:large

Previous
Next

Other important data points:

- 1k/day is not yet achieved even not at burst rate
- SR at $38 k just $3 short of break even so levy than 10% of costs
- Every $ improvement will bring in most cases 1$ more margin on MR and LR
- The now moved Bottleneck shows that they have solved battery and paint shop bottlenecks
- Body is usually more a capex question and not a big issue to solve or show stopper
- A long way still to go until the SR gets into production
- Quality as important as production rate
 
I think we'll see poor volumes today too, everyone's waiting for news in the trade-wars, for better or worse.

I'm OK with it - we've had a real ride the last 6 months, some boring weeks while Tesla just go about producing cars without any drama, that's fine for me.

Interesting to note that October and November in Norway were sluggish, but deliveries have picked-up this week, so I guess a shipments came in Tesla Registration Stats

It's also my opinion that Tesla will have been prioritizing US deliveries in light of the tax-credit situation.
If trade war news was the issue, volumes would be lower in other stocks. Isn't it only Tesla with low volume?
 
I LOVE the attitude of that internal email. (Also gives me ideas for my game) I cannot imagine many workers at other car plants really giving a damn about micromanaging the efficiency of production, but I can absolutely see that being the case at tesla. It must drive Elon absolutely nuts that he is still so far from the super-speed alien dreadnought. It drives me nuts and I'm not even CEO :D
 
Status
Not open for further replies.