TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[scaesare]

One thing that surprises me is that very few find it troubling that the 6000 per week guided number is no where near the reality. In fact it is just over half of that at around 3200 ish...and tracking down. If the Trend continues we are looking at March numbers by next week. I would have expected a push the last three or four weeks. Just a guess but my suspicion is a supplier of a key component is not keeping up.

Hoping that the tracker is completely out to lunch and Tesla is at 6000 threes per week at end of quarter.

If you are allowing (and indeed hoping) that the tracker is wrong, how can you claim that ~3200 is the "reality"?

 

[TNEVol]

Today’s events are very disturbing to me because it appears (circumstantially) that the news of criminal investigation was timed to manipulate the market AND that the price drop was purposefully limited to avoid a 10% drop. Am I correct in reading the posts on this? If so this looks to me as the most significant evidence of conspiracy to manipulate and possible fraud. The timing appears to be orchestrated. It is important to understand that this is not truly a First Amendment issue. This involves commercial speech and even if true, issues involving conspiracy to manipulate or defraud are not protected.


Almost everyone on here knows more about the market than me. However I have 40+ years in State and Federal Court experience unfortunately in environment, energy and health care. I am retired and I don’t even know how to file an SEC complaint. However, I am willing to be lead Plaintiff/Complainant and move forward with an SEC complaint if there is support from those on the board. I am not talking about $$, but rather advice and commitment. Do any of you see a way to do this? Clearly it would not be on the board.

 

[TrendTrader007]

Shorts tried real dirty trick with today but their days of $TSLA manipulation are highly limited
Stock will rocket higher despite all the shorts
Or maybe because of shorts
A stock price anywhere from $700 to $2000 within the next 2 years or so possible

 

[Dangleitus]

What is this supposed to mean?

The quick ratio is a measure for a company pay pay back short term liabilities. Take total current assets ( less inventory) divided by total current liabilities. Anything less than one suggests the company cannot manage its short term liabilities. CFO is cashflow from operations although referencing net income would have be equally valid.

 

[SO16]

The issue is not about him saying he was "considering..." The issue is about the two words "funding secured". that translated to a lot of bulls and bears that this was a done deal. He then followed up those two words saying all that was needed was a shareholder vote. This implied the BoD had already approved the move. That turned out to be untrue. We later learned no plan had even been presented to the BoD.

Once again you are saying it’s untrue based on your (and some loud shorts) interpretation of it. It would be prudent to wait and see if the SEC agrees with you first, don’t you think?

 

[Unpilot]

The quick ratio is a measure for a company pay pay back short term liabilities. Take total current assets ( less inventory) divided by total current liabilities. Anything less than one suggests the company cannot manage its short term liabilities. CFO is cashflow from operations although referencing net income would have be equally valid.

OK...maybe don't drink and post.

 

[Dangleitus]

OK...maybe don't drink and post.

I was actually reading about the differences of abstraction and interfaces in object oriented programming. A little less enjoyable than drinking.

And plus its Tuesday. We all gotta get up in the AM! At least wait until Friday to crack open a cold one with the boys.

 

[TrendTrader007]

I expect $TSLA to trade well over $450 in 2 years
Delta increases once the call is in the money
If the stock is $1000 by J 2021 then the call will probably be trading well over $500 which is 10X ROI
All hypothetical of course

 

[MikeC]

At the end of the day, its solvency risk - debt due at the end of the year and march 2019. The later could be paid with stock as i recall if the price is 350 or above. Quick ratio of .37, they need to garner CFO quickly. An equity raise could have helped bridge the gap, but with a DOJ investigation, this becomes more difficult.

I would become long if the business case made sense. I do not think musk is the right CEO for this company. Ironically enough if he left, the price would take a hit. I might buy after structuring if they become a buyout target, which is always possible if the price is right. I might also go long if the charts look good, even if its for a quick trade. But for now, I am hanging tight.

I encourage you to read luv’s projections in this thread:
q2-q4 2018 financial projections

 

[JRP3]

You are again missing the point here.

The word "contingent" is not the problem; the word "only" is the problem. It later became crystal clear, from Elon's own subsequent statements, that the stockholder vote was not the ONLY contingency, but rather one of multiple remaining contingencies.

As has been pointed out repeatedly.

Incorrectly. There was no requirement nor expectation that Elon lay out every possible risk factor in contract legalese.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

OK...maybe don't drink and post.

He’s a Bruins fan. To be expected....

 

[JRP3]

There is no way this stock will stay below $400 over the next 28 months

A stock price anywhere from $700 to $2000 within the next 2 years or so possible

I expect $TSLA to trade well over $450 in 2 years

Might want to adjust your dosage.

 

[pz1975]

He’s a Bruins fan. To be expected....

So am I!

 

[Dangleitus]

He’s a Bruins fan. To be expected....

The reputation has merit. You guys know how to throw down in Montreal as well. That liquor store right across from Mount Royal is an easy place to grab something and day drink at the tam tam.

fwiw, Montreal is one of my favorite cities I've been too. The habs, less so.

 

[pz1975]

$TSLA January 2021 options became available as of yesterday
I had been waiting for January 2021 calls and as soon as I noticed today I immediately switched ALL my January 2019 calls to January 2021 $400 calls
There is no way this stock will stay below $400 over the next 28 months
Shorts can try their best I’m betting everything on $400 January 2021 calls
Period

422 contracts traded today (of which I assume most were yours) - impressive stuff!

 

[Remus]

At the end of the day, its solvency risk - debt due at the end of the year and march 2019. The later could be paid with stock as i recall if the price is 350 or above. Quick ratio of .37, they need to garner CFO quickly. An equity raise could have helped bridge the gap, but with a DOJ investigation, this becomes more difficult.

I would become long if the business case made sense. I do not think musk is the right CEO for this company. Ironically enough if he left, the price would take a hit. I might buy after structuring if they become a buyout target, which is always possible if the price is right. I might also go long if the charts look good, even if its for a quick trade. But for now, I am hanging tight.

Another post with short sound bites that have been refuted literally dozens of times. You know this forum provide this little function called search. It's a thing that computers are pretty good at.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

At the end of the day, its solvency risk - debt due at the end of the year and march 2019. The later could be paid with stock as i recall if the price is 350 or above. Quick ratio of .37, they need to garner CFO quickly. An equity raise could have helped bridge the gap, but with a DOJ investigation, this becomes more difficult.

I would become long if the business case made sense. I do not think musk is the right CEO for this company. Ironically enough if he left, the price would take a hit. I might buy after structuring if they become a buyout target, which is always possible if the price is right. I might also go long if the charts look good, even if its for a quick trade. But for now, I am hanging tight.

Ok, you're dev.
Here is one way to think about this: Tesla is not a static system. It's not gonna stumble and find itself with no money. It's highly dynamic system, with tremendous revenue growth and people that are in charge of making sure it doesn't go bankrupt. These people have numerous levers to pull to adjust how machine operates. This is not a 100 year old company with frozen revenue and costs, and there is nothing that can be done or changed and once problems start, you're done and driving towards abyss even-though you see it. Nope, this company can (and will) slow down expense growth, freeze or even lower expenses, while it waits for revenue to catch up. They don't do it most of the time, because it's disadvantageous to the growth rate. And growth rate is more important at this stage than efficiency. Or it was until about 3 months ago. If you don't understand last couple of sentences, or you don't believe them, you haven't read up enough on how to grow startup business. If so, I get it, you're dev. You're wrong though. I'm dev that has gone through few startups and picked up bunch of business on the side, which is why I'm trying to explain from the viewpoint that I hope makes sense. Assuming you're genuine person that has interest in discussing things, and not a troll. We had bunch recently, but from your first couple posts, I don't think you are.
Anyhow, main point is, you'd be a fool ,to think that you know more than people inside of company that are driving this thing. If you're counting on solvency risk, you're counting they give own-goal, i.e. shut themselves in the foot. Possible, but very unlikely. These people have been developing this company from the first Roadster and 0 revenue to some $20B+ yearly run rate. You are severely underestimating them...

 

[AlMc]

I had zero problems going in size in $400 J 2021 this morning
Liquidity is not a problem
By the time those calls start trading actively $TSLA stock price will be markedly higher

I was nervous before but I bought those J21 $400s as well today but now I am really scared! ......have I become an ultra bull? Thought I was a cautious bull.

 

[bdy0627]

New record for me....3 more ‘ignores’ in one day.

Me too. This thread is getting littered with a lot of garbage. It's a shame.

 

[Dangleitus]

"If you don't understand last couple of sentences, or you don't believe them, you haven't read up enough on how to grow startup business. If so, I get it, you're dev. You're wrong though. I'm dev that has gone through few startups and picked up bunch of business on the side, which is why I'm trying to explain from the viewpoint that I hope makes sense. Assuming you're genuine person that has interest in discussing things, and not a troll. We had bunch recently, but from your first couple posts, I don't think you are."

I'll be the first to admit I could be wrong about a great many things, and if I was 100% sure of my short position than I would have much more into it. I manage risk first meaning if i am either wrong about the final price or the timing, I lose a manageable amount of my liquidity. I won't rehash my opinion of the financials, but part of my short here is also against the market as well - of which tesla is not my only short here. In fact I am not long too many names right now to be honest with you.

A great example would be cisco, which was one of the stellar performers of the 90s and saw its prices appreciate something wild like 10,000%. The company literally owned its space ( networking hardware), and posted a record consecutive number of quarters of earnings growth. However in 2000 after its peak, its price dropped precipitously 80%, and is still down something like 30% from its all time high 17 years later. Do I still like Cisco as a company? Heck yes - they still own much of the market, and are still the standard for network certs ( got one of their books on my desk at work in fact). The point is to me that any company is susceptible to the vicissitudes of the markets -leaders, laggards, and everyone inbetween.

Concerning start ups, one of the reason I got into development was to start my own business so I have some startup experience. Like zip2, I have coded my own ideas from scratch as well and let me tell you it aint easy what he did. The lessons I learned from Ries, Blank, et al. was that capturing the early adopters is key. Tesla did this very well and I commend them for that. Before Tesla, Electric cars were not sexy at all, and this is not the case today. Crossing the Chasm is another thing entirely, and this struggle is why I am short the company at the present time - in my mind the business model doesn't work. But if they do, i'll admit I messed up, close up my short and find other trades.