TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[humbaba]

For market action...

Something I've noticed today is that the rises correlate with increased trading, as opposed to in the past

VWUSA are simply having supply issues with the e-golf due to international sales going up significantly. But, VWAG has said they will build an E factory in NA in 2019 (not that it helps 2019 sales or 2020 much for that matter). but, the fact that so many cars in the VWAG are going to be using the same MEB platform for drivetrain, battery, motors, control systems tooling up a factory isn't anywhere near as difficult as for a new platform entirely. I think they plan to move all their NA E-golf and A3 e-tron production to NA soon.

By compelling, I mean many multiples of prior years sales. I could see VWAG getting north of 40K units sold in 2019. Remember, ANY manufacturer is going to have a significant cost advantage compared to Tesla come H119, and certainly H219. for an A3 etron and e-golf and an imported ID platform vehicle VWAG could be well positioned to significantly increase NA sales - and that's what I find compelling.

But, to further the overall point ISN'T THIS WHAT ELON WANTS!!??. Isn't their MISSION to "accelerate the worlds transition to sustainable energy and transport" Certainly he couldn't mean JUST for Tesla. It's simply not possible. But, proving the viability, affordability, scaleability, adoptability, isn't that the true goal?

Getting more companies onboard and moving in that direction, filling in the remainder of vehicle sales should prove that you lit a fire, you nurtured the growth and caught a whole forest aflame (okay, probably bad analogy here in Norcal - sorry folks)

Oh, I absolutely agree that this is what Tesla wants. And it is what I want. I just find the non-Tesla alternatives seriously lacking.

Here's the thing: I'm in the majority of US house holds that can't take advantage of the EV tax break. In my case, I can't get any of it. Which means a Tesla is a major expense for me. And buying one would go against my long standing principle of never buying on loan. The last time I did that was for my house, and I paid it off very quickly.

The point I'm trying to make is that I am exactly in the financial position of someone who buys a non-Tesla EV. And, yet, none of them are compelling. With the talk about the Leaf refresh coming soon (supposedly first quarter next year) I did some looking and -- at first -- it looked tempting. The pricing is better and the utility of a hatchback is significant to me. But the more I looked at it the more I realized it just wasn't up to snuff.

If I can't afford a Tesla (for the record, I think I've found a way to do it, hopefully get an order in this week) then the best thing for me to do is wait. Wait and hope that eventually there will be a Tesla that I can afford or that a competitor will actually make a compelling product.

But I don't look for this in the next 12-18 months -- at least from Tesla competitors. AFAICT 2021 is the absolute earliest that anyone would have something compelling. And that is assuming they've kept it under wraps because everything being announced would -- at best -- be competitive to an older Tesla if there weren't a Tesla super charger network. More realistically, I think there will be reasonable competition around 2024 -- but even them I'm not sure how compelling it will be. A lot depends on what Tesla does and if Toyota's gamble on solid state batteries pans out. (Which, for the record, I don't think it will -- but I will be ecstatic if it does.)

Notice: I'm responding to your post, not trying to vote it down. Sure, I disagree, but I'm trying to understand your position and see if I've missed something. If it seems that I'm being dismissive of your input well... I guess I am, but that is because I'm not seeing anything new. I appreciate your posts that offer perspective, and I thank you for them.

 

[SOULPEDL]

My house A/C just went out big time, and I'm still happy!
True story, now I get to buy one that's more energy efficient
I think I'll go drive around for a while just for fun!

 

[Fact Checking]

 

[bdy0627]

Isn't this just like TSLA? We do weeks of posts analyzing how earnings may play out and then it goes and turns out...like this. There's just no way to predict this stuff. I think there are several pertinent questions that may well carry more weight than resistance levels in this kind of situation:

Do you think all the shorts who wanted to cover were able to get out today?
Do you think all of the longs who were sitting on the sidelines waiting for the carnage of the last couple of months to subside got back in today?
When will covering shorts decide to go short again?
What's the overall market's next move?

 

[Fact Checking]

Do you think all the shorts who wanted to cover were able to get out today?

Impossible: I'd be surprised if short interest dropped from yesterday's ~33 million to below 30 million.

Also, I think it won't be shorts 'wanting' to cover, but being forced to cover by the losses, either through margin calls, or by simply facing the reality that several key points of their short thesis failed.

BTW., celebrations might be premature, we still have to see the Q3 results...

 

[traxila]

Battery s

I thought battery supply was fixed though...maybe this will just allow them to reduce worker costs and increase the margin.

Battery supply for Model 3 is fixed. S and X different cells.

 

[Drumheller]

Impossible: I'd be surprised if short interest dropped from yesterday's ~33 million to below 30 million.

Also, I think it won't be shorts 'wanting' to cover, but being forced to cover by the losses, either through margin calls, or by simply facing the reality that several key points of their short thesis failed.

BTW., celebrations might be premature, we still have to see the Q3 results...

This. I'm pleased with the stock movement today, but let's remember that it was just about $380 less than three months ago. I'll start celebrating when it crosses $400.

or $420. Whichever you prefer.

 

[ZachShahan]

Says the guy working for said "electric vehicle promotional website".

I don't know if it CNBC's ignorance or arrogance, but they did not even credit you. I can't help but feel a bit of smug arrogance by the way they classified Cleantechnica as a "promotional site". Not that you guys don't promote EVs, but this tries to ever so slightly discredit you as fan site.

Yes, well, I agree with you.



Still, I use honey more than vinegar, so sent a friendly and polite email and hoping my faith in humanity isn't (again) misplaced.

 

[NicoV]

Thoughts on testing SPARTA today?

Maybe a rally the last 5 minutes to take the price above 300;

 

[humbaba]

This. I'm pleased with the stock movement today, but let's remember that it was just about $380 less than three months ago. I'll start celebrating when it crosses $400.

or $420. Whichever you prefer.

oh, you had to go there...

One of the more laughable parts of the SEC complaint was the harping about 420. They were already contending it was arbitrary, uninformed and capricious, and then tossed the drug reference in as if that had any relevance.

 

[shrspeedblade]

Or they are simplifying to prepare retooling for an interior refresh? Followed by crazy new sales of course.

I’d think it makes good business sense to refresh S/X prior to the Y reveal to ensure demand stays strong.

Fun day!

 

[ZachShahan]

i don’t think anyone’s making him a hero. or at least they shouldn’t. and trust me, you know how i feel about these types. but i do agree with @DaveT its an important pivot in the face of the haters.

the thing is, with the detail he went into in his letter, he can’t just turn around once it hits 350 and say “time to short”. i mean he can do anything he wants, really.

but since he went into such detail about price target and eps and media slander campaign etc etc
he’d lose any credibility if he did that.

if he wasn’t just looking to swing he’d have said this isn’t a short for us at citron right now. but he didn’t say that.

that’s why this is important. he eviscerated the shorting theories, and he was one of them.

the street is a dirty business, but it’s the people that make it dirty. but isn’t that always the case?

Yes, 1) this line:

"Critics will say 'of course Tesla is selling a lot of cars, there was a backlog of 2 years of demand.' However, we’re seeing that demand is new this year and pulling directly from TSLA's competitors."

And he put that in red. He was saying, "I know exactly what shorts will say, and they're wrong."

2) He then proceeded to show research that was near the top of our list (and will make my work easier ) — sales changes in various top competitors.

That's for real. Not messing around. Thrusting daggers in the short thesis he knows well.

 

[ZachShahan]

Impossible: I'd be surprised if short interest dropped from yesterday's ~33 million to below 30 million.

Also, I think it won't be shorts 'wanting' to cover, but being forced to cover by the losses, either through margin calls, or by simply facing the reality that several key points of their short thesis failed.

BTW., celebrations might be premature, we still have to see the Q3 results...

idk. I'm curious — how much are other shorts influenced by this Left guy?

 

[1101011]

Thrusting daggers in the short thesis he knows well.

Yes. Who knows better?

 

[NikeWings]

Tesla shares got another boost during mid-day trading following a tweet by Richard Pearson's Mox Reports, saying "numbers will be blowout." UPDATE 3-Tesla critic Citron makes U-turn ahead of results

 

[BenPrice]

Goodbye 292, old friend.

 

[MartinAustin]

OK after watching for 3 straight hours, CNBC finally mentioned Tesla on-air, although they got the facts very, very wrong. Here is the exact, and entire, transcript.
"...and we mentioned earlier very few positive names here today, but among them Tesla up around 9.5%" Took her 5.1 seconds to say that. Some Model 3 LR's did 0-60 in celebration.

Sadly the graphic right next to her showed a very different number.

 

[sundaymorning]

To think that the shorts got done in by one of their own champion.

Maybe tomorrow we see M. Spiegel switch side as well.

Scumbag citron wants to hoard the glory to itself by stealing the spotlight, when the real hero is tesla.

Shorts just lost a major ally, their thesis as well as FUD are going to slowly crumble. Zero money from Citron from now on will flow to pay negative/fake news to bash Tesla. If you’re short, you have a very narrow path ahead!

 

[tivoboy]

Here's the thing: I'm in the majority of US house holds that can't take advantage of the EV tax break. In my case, I can't get any of it. Which means a Tesla is a major expense for me. And buying one would go against my long standing principle of never buying on loan. The last time I did that was for my house, and I paid it off very quickly.

If you can afford the car, and the tax credit would help do you not hold ANY stocks in non tax advantaged accounts? One should have some gains (or enough to get above the cap gains 0% thresholds) and then just figure out how much to sell of which appreciated stock and reset that stocks basis, take the cap gains tax hit (but offset it with the tax credit).

If you're ONLY in stocks in tax advantaged accounts, fine - but just a note that's not the overall best strategy in the long run. a mix of tax advantaged and taxed is better going into retirement years. Just a thought.

update: I've also never bought anything on loan (well, other than education but I paid those off very quickly even graduate school) but when I bought the TM3, I just figured heck, I KNOW I can pay this off and I KNOW I won't ever run into trouble and if the world wants to loan me 50K for 36 months at 1.45%, I can make about 25K on that money in three years easy. It made the best financial sense. Heck, I recommend this to people all the time - but from a personality standpoint I just never wanted to/or needed to do it. The economist in me won out though.

 

[Joe F]

I'm constantly amazed by the CNBC types (and a few other non CNBC types) who tweet "Elon Musk says..." as if anyone who follows them probably don't follow Elon himself. Always a SMH moment.

The icing on the cake? They repeat it again later, just. in. case. you. missed. it. earlier.