Waymo

[flutas]

AFAIK, in CA, when testing with a safety driver, AV companies have to report disengagements and collisions. When testing without a safety driver, AV companies only have to report collisions. When deployed driverless in a commercial service, they only have to report collisions.

See below

But it's a DMV deployment permit, not a testing permit. Go to this DMV page and click on the links for Driverless Testing and Testing with a Safety Driver. Under the "Requirements" area of each you'll see rules for Collision Reporting. But click on the link for Autonomous Vehicle Deployment Program and you'll find no such requirement for collision reporting. I'm sure if you dig deep enough into the actual regulations you'll see where this is all spelled out. I found out about it by reading some article or blog post I didn't save, but found the DMV web page which backs it up.

The DMV website, does not law make.

For both:

The law itself is unambiguous on this. It quite literally specifies "in any manner involved".

A manufacturer whose autonomous vehicle[0] while operating under a Manufacturer's Testing Permit[1] or a Manufacturer's Testing Permit -- Driverless Vehicles[1] is in any manner involved in a collision originating from the operation of the autonomous vehicle on a public road that resulted in the damage of property or in bodily injury or death shall report the collision to the department, within 10 days after the collision, on Report of Traffic Collision Involving an Autonomous Vehicle, form OL 316 (Rev. 7/2020) which is hereby incorporated by reference.

In any case, I guess we'll let the DMV decide as I've emailed them for clarification on this missing incident report.

 

[JulienW]

The problem with "broke the law" is, it happens all the time. Say 1 mph above speed limit is break the law. Crossing solid lines in breaking the law, even if it is to give safety space for bikes.

Not in GA (and I bet in most other states too). It is the following:

Dashed line: Freely cross
Solid White Line: Discouraged from crossing but NOT illegal
Double White Lines: Illegal to cross

 

[diplomat33]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1788969755363230028

I know this is just PR. I wonder if this change in messaging is a result of the viral incidents we saw lately. If you read the other tweets in the threads, Waymo basically says "safety is not enough, we want the community to trust us". It feels like a subtle way of saying "we are aware of the incidents that maybe eroded public trust in our tech and we want to fix that". This does seem like a shift in the PR messaging from "make it safe and easy for people and things to get where they’re going" to "world's most trusted driver." The new mission statement seems to emphasize public trust instead of just safety. I am just curious if we can read anything into this change in wording.

 

[stopcrazypp]

The problem with "broke the law" is, it happens all the time. Say 1 mph above speed limit is break the law. Crossing solid lines in breaking the law, even if it is to give safety space for bikes.

Is there some kind of gradation of laws where breaking some are more severe in traffic law ? Like the below would be really bad in my book
- Skipping red lights, stop signs
- Cutting off other vehicles aggressively
- Tailgating
...

I think AVs should never do these "class A" traffic violations, where as "class c" are ok if there is some valid reason.

How about instances of breaking the law that a human would clearly get a ticket for? In most states going 1mph above the limit will not result in a ticket. As for passing a bike while crossing a double yellow, typically you also won't get a ticket if you do it in an safe manner and some states explicitly allow it.

The recent incidents go beyond that example:
1) crossing a solid double yellow and driving on wrong side of the road for what appears to be a whole block or more.
2) driving on a dedicated bus lane and then making an illegal left turn.

I only put that because the other standard of being "flawless" is unrealistic and there are other instances where the car may do something annoying (like for example the stopping behavior being complained about for FSD) but it's not illegal.

 

[EVNow]

I only put that because the other standard of being "flawless" is unrealistic and there are other instances where the car may do something annoying (like for example the stopping behavior being complained about for FSD) but it's not illegal.

"Flawless" as in what you would expect say a professional, experienced limo driver would do (while not being distracted !). Not as in absolutely sticking to the letter of the law.

In terms of comfort, there are various parameters that AVs record that can be used - but are not available to us as passengers.

How about instances of breaking the law that a human would clearly get a ticket for?

That would depend on the officer. Some are more lenient, some might target certain individuals ... anyway, not an objective way to categorize driving.

 

[EVNow]

Waymo is doing 50,000 paid trips every week across three major cities now.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1788693361047515522

Comparison to Uber : 27 Million trips per week.

 

[Doggydogworld]

The law itself is unambiguous on this. It quite literally specifies "in any manner involved".

A manufacturer whose autonomous vehicle[0] while operating under a Manufacturer's Testing Permit[1] or a Manufacturer's Testing Permit -- Driverless Vehicles[1] is in any manner involved in a collision originating from the operation of the autonomous vehicle on a public road that resulted in the damage of property or in bodily injury or death shall report the collision to the department, within 10 days after the collision, on Report of Traffic Collision Involving an Autonomous Vehicle, form OL 316 (Rev. 7/2020) which is hereby incorporated by reference.

As I keep saying, this vehicle was not operating under a testing permit.

 

[flutas]

As I keep saying, this vehicle was not operating under a testing permit.

and as I keep saying, the CPUC has stated that the testing permit is a prerequisite for their issued permit.

So yes, the Waymo would be operating under *all* of their issued permits, not a single random one they can cherry pick.

Waymo is doing 50,000 paid trips every week across three major cities now.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1788693361047515522

I don't see how, unless AZ is a HUGE contributor.

Their latest CPUC data (from January and Feburary) showed them only doing 77,242 and 74,233 trips respectively over the entire month, with both months carrying <100k passengers.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

I’m not sure I’ve ever recognized a Tesla running FSD on city streets (other than Alan’s). I need to look more carefully now that more people are using it.

Do the mileage calculations with Tesla’s latest data. Can probably bound it, and I think you might conclude that basically no one is using it on City Streets. I think most of the miles are probably done by people on this forum so the chances of seeing it in use are super low I suspect.

 

[nativewolf]

Comparison to Uber : 27 Million trips per week.

Comparison to the US auto fleet: 7.8 billion tips per week. The Tesla fleet in the USA is what, 2.5 mln? Just a guess. So they should be doing just under 42 mln ( 2.5 mln *2.4 rides a day* 7) rides a week right now. It's nothing but it does illustrate just how few people actually use Uber. It also shows how little Waymo has to do to eat all of Uber. It's not a reach goal. Of course I am also comparing Uber global capacity to rides in the USA which is obviously apple/oranges but oh well. Hit me with a wet noodle.

If Uber is the total addressable market for TaaS than it shows that Tesla is already having a bigger impact on sustainability than Uber itself just by replacing ICE with EVs. It's why I feel Tesla should focus on replacing ICEs and not bother so much with FSD/RT. Oh well

 

[nativewolf]

To better flush that out....I think with 200k vehicles Waymo could completely replace Uber's profit centers in the USA. Easily.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Comparison to the US auto fleet: 7.8 billion tips per week. The Tesla fleet in the USA is what, 2.5 mln? Just a guess. So they should be doing just under 42 mln ( 2.5 mln *2.4 rides a day* 7) rides a week right now. It's nothing but it does illustrate just how few people actually use Uber. It also shows how little Waymo has to do to eat all of Uber. It's not a reach goal. Of course I am also comparing Uber global capacity to rides in the USA which is obviously apple/oranges but oh well. Hit me with a wet noodle.

If Uber is the total addressable market for TaaS than it shows that Tesla is already having a bigger impact on sustainability than Uber itself just by replacing ICE with EVs. It's why I feel Tesla should focus on replacing ICEs and not bother so much with FSD/RT. Oh well

The addressable market for ADAS or AV for a personal vehicle is probably much larger than Uber. I imagine the Uber market is held back by people not using it for daily commuting, especially those living in suburbs where it is convenient to own a car. This is different for an ADAS package on a personal vehicle. Plenty of people already use AP for daily commuting, it's not a stretch to see FSD being used the same way. Then the robotaxi stuff would just be on top of that for people that don't own a car or don't want to use their own.

 

[EVNow]

To better flush that out....I think with 200k vehicles Waymo could completely replace Uber's profit centers in the USA. Easily.

You mean Uber's loss centers

But for that Waymo would have to expand to 100+ cities. At the rate Waymo is expanding that would take better part of this century.

BTW, 50k trips a week - is about 9k per day for 3 cities - so, 3k per day per city. How many robotaxis are they running ? That gives us a good idea about utilization.

If Uber is the total addressable market for TaaS

Lyft has quite a bit of share too, about 1/4th. So current TAAS is about 20% bigger than Uber.

But the question is - will robotaxis expand the market ? Uber / Lyft are quite expensive. To expand the market, the price needs to be cut quite a bit.

 

[Daniel in SD]

I think @Doggydogworld is correct. You can look for notable Cruise and Waymo collisions on the DMV website and they're not there.
The data for deployed vehicles is here.

Quarterly Reporting

www.cpuc.ca.gov

Much harder to read, much of it redacted, and I'm not sure there are descriptions of the collisions.

 

[nativewolf]

You mean Uber's loss centers

But for that Waymo would have to expand to 100+ cities. At the rate Waymo is expanding that would take better part of this century.

BTW, 50k trips a week - is about 9k per day for 3 cities - so, 3k per day per city. How many robotaxis are they running ? That gives us a good idea about utilization.


Lyft has quite a bit of share too, about 1/4th. So current TAAS is about 20% bigger than Uber.

But the question is - will robotaxis expand the market ? Uber / Lyft are quite expensive. To expand the market, the price needs to be cut quite a bit.

I think they only use 100 at a time in a city. It's just purely trial work. I'm also an Uber sceptic but with costs control Uber is creating a bit of profit but huge losses in most cities. The profit comes from 2 handfuls of cities- I think up to 12.

 

[nativewolf]

You mean Uber's loss centers

But for that Waymo would have to expand to 100+ cities. At the rate Waymo is expanding that would take better part of this century.

BTW, 50k trips a week - is about 9k per day for 3 cities - so, 3k per day per city. How many robotaxis are they running ? That gives us a good idea about utilization.


Lyft has quite a bit of share too, about 1/4th. So current TAAS is about 20% bigger than Uber.

But the question is - will robotaxis expand the market ? Uber / Lyft are quite expensive. To expand the market, the price needs to be cut quite a bit.

Btw that is exactly on spect 3k per day per city. Almost mirrors Uber stats.

yes Uber is tremendously expensive, its why nobody really commutes with Uber if they do it is usually the result of another TaaS utilization factor- parking, entertainment, travel. Oh, I hear some companies reimburse Uber in which case I could see those rides being possible. You're in Seattle? Out of curiousity in a burb or downtown? What does it cost to book an uber in rush hour from the Everett to downtown? I think it is $80 bucks but that is?? accurate??

$160 to commute? *220 is $35k a year. Wow, even if working from home half the days that would still be 17k. Huh....So if Tesla came in at 1/4 of that or roughly 9k to commute or 4k if working half time at home, hmmm that's still quite a bit of money.

What do you think? Do you think wider EVs rollout or RTs is the way to go?

 

[nativewolf]

Also it should be noted that Waymo is testing in 10 cities right now so I think they could pretty much eat Ubers profit in 2 years. They may leave out NYC due to litigious and govt regs but...I could see the gutting Ubers profits in the USA. Uber is very profitable in London & Rio to name a couple of overseas villages where Uber could hold out. They could also pivot more into food delivery.

 

[nativewolf]

The addressable market for ADAS or AV for a personal vehicle is probably much larger than Uber. I imagine the Uber market is held back by people not using it for daily commuting, especially those living in suburbs where it is convenient to own a car. This is different for an ADAS package on a personal vehicle. Plenty of people already use AP for daily commuting, it's not a stretch to see FSD being used the same way. Then the robotaxi stuff would just be on top of that for people that don't own a car or don't want to use their own.

It could be twice as large ...who cares. It's mostly going to be dense cities, the model doesn't scale and it is not at all sustainable, the opposite. Tony Seba has done the world a disservice with pimping TaaS. It can't handle the #1 issue with any regional traffic planning test. Commuting.

Waymo is being far wiser IMO. They have simple purpose built vehicles that are ADA sensitive vehicles. They will clean easily. They are trying to nail down specific highly profitable cities with high Uber acceptance which also means- tourist and entertainment. Both areas Google can market to and I think make it impossible to compete if you're Tesla or Uber. The cost of the car really shouldn't matter. $50k or $25k across a million miles ...rounding errors. I think Waymo might be able to do it for free just to market to people that are going to spend money. Maybe anti-trust violation in the making- ask forgiveness not permission. TaaS profits are still likely to be in these big cities so Waymo deploys 200k vehicles or whatever and gets 42 million rides a week and makes some money, deepening Googles ad sales capabilities.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

It could be twice as large ...who cares. It's mostly going to be dense cities, the model doesn't scale and it is not at all sustainable, the opposite. Tony Seba has done the world a disservice with pimping TaaS. It can't handle the #1 issue with any regional traffic planning test. Commuting.

Waymo is being far wiser IMO. They have simple purpose built vehicles that are ADA sensitive vehicles. They will clean easily. They are trying to nail down specific highly profitable cities with high Uber acceptance which also means- tourist and entertainment. Both areas Google can market to and I think make it impossible to compete if you're Tesla or Uber. The cost of the car really shouldn't matter. $50k or $25k across a million miles ...rounding errors. I think Waymo might be able to do it for free just to market to people that are going to spend money. Maybe anti-trust violation in the making- ask forgiveness not permission. TaaS profits are still likely to be in these big cities so Waymo deploys 200k vehicles or whatever and gets 42 million rides a week and makes some money, deepening Googles ad sales capabilities.

TaaS can handle commuting with ride sharing. It's public transportation but without the inconvenience of hub and spoke.

 

[nativewolf]

TaaS can handle commuting with ride sharing. It's public transportation but without the inconvenience of hub and spoke.

Ohhh that is another whole ball of wax. Yes, that would aid sustainability. If TaaS goes in for ride sharing than the Waymo type vehicle will be perfect. I tiny sub model 3 vehicle not so much.