Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[advocate8]

How does that response in any specific way apply to what you quoted?

Just because you have a personal bias about something does not alter fact. No matter how many times you repeat it.

Emotion is a poor tool for assessing fact.

Application of any claim based in broad generalization will always be a distortion of a wide spectrum of variation.


Using the doll, can you show me where Texas hurt you?

After that, please make a list of all the states that do have rational and sane government.

After you finish making your broad and vague assertions about the wonders of the Texas business world go ahead and make a case for enlightened Texas leadership. Be specific, especially when you address climate change, their regulation of the electrical grid, etc.

 

[2daMoon]

Some cities did not want natural gas wells in their towns, so the Texas legislature passed a law to prevent cities from doing this. So there are natural gas wells that release raw methane a few blocks from schools.

Yes, and this changes the fact that Texas leads the nation in renewable energy production in what way?

Every form of government ever conceived has perpetrated ills upon some of those they govern. Most often this can be linked to greed, lust for power, or the like. This problem is not isolated to any geographic region on the planet, is it?

Hopefully, someday, we can turn government over to a well-designed AI that can make better decisions.

In the mean time we can let market forces dictate change. More business-related progress toward a renewable energy future will take us away from a fossil energy past.

The sooner, the better.

 

[SOULPEDL]

For example we think that FSD requires billions of miles of driving data to train the NN but will ASI make that unnecessary?

It will. And Humaniods drive cars that aren't equipped at that point.

 

[2daMoon]

After you finish making your broad and vague assertions about the wonders of the Texas business world go ahead and make a case for enlightened Texas leadership. Be specific, especially when you address climate change, their regulation of the electrical grid, etc.

Ad Hominem much?

I don't do requests. I did provide specific facts, with references. Quite the opposite of "broad and vague assertions"

I don't really follow any climate change arguments.

I am unaware of any current problems with Texas' electrical grid. (pun intended)

The facts indicate the renewable energy movement is well established and growing faster in Texas than any other US state. (This means Tesla is in the right place)

From that March 2023 KXAN News article linked earlier:

Texas more than doubled what California produced in renewable energy last calendar year. The gap will only widen in the next few years as our state looks for continued increases in solar power harnessing.​

​

The numbers? Texas created over 136,000 gigawatt-hours to California’s nearly 53,000 gigawatt-hours. Iowa (45,000+), Oklahoma (37,500) and Kansas (29,500+) were third, fourth, and fifth respectively.​

Here's a link to more recent data: https://www.eia.gov/state/data.php?sid=TX

If I'm interpreting the data correctly, it indicates Texas produced from renewables and nuclear alone an amount equal to 37% of the nation's average production of electricity from all sources in January of 2024.

So, more renewable energy produced than in the other states, some of which you appear to assume would be better at this thanks to their "enlightened (government) leadership" being superior for this sort of thing.

It was enlightened business leadership that brought this about, The planning and execution took place over the past couple of decades.

I won't pretend to understand this pretzel logic you are trying to apply here.

 

[Unpilot]

It seems to be kept barely above 180. Is WS going to hammer it below 180 right before the close?

It happens often enough that it is outside the realm of just chance.

As I type I see the slow drip starting.

 

[heltok]

That's exactly what I have been wondering. Is it possible that we are erring in thinking in continuous terms, be it linear or even exponential. Once ASI happens, will there be a discontinuous jump and will many of our puny achievements seem paltry? For example we think that FSD requires billions of miles of driving data to train the NN but will ASI make that unnecessary?

All those years of hard work by large teams of human engineers will be duplicated by ASI in days so any software moat will be moot. Likely future neural networks will be a lot more efficient at learning from small amount of data, maybe on the same or better level than expert humans today. ASI will develop more efficient algorithms and use these to improve itself.

What exactly will happen is hard to predict, that's why it's called the singularity. Imo the last few years look a lot like how scifi authors envisioned the exponential growth pre singularity would look like. So maybe we are seeing the beginning of the singularity. This video was interesting on the topic.

 

[Zero CO2]

So what's the best explanation for the slowdown in Tesla's sales, when they keep lowering ASP and improving offering, while ICE sales don't drop as much/fast?

This scenario goes clearly against my bullish thesis and I'm unable to provide satisfying answers to the questions I get. I've ready the vast majority of posts in this thread but can't find a summary of the best arguments (by investors).

I know about the official reasons for the YoY issues – red sea conflict and arson attack – but the layoff we're hearing about seem far more structural than the "operational efficiency" program the management is telling us about.

OEM advertising and MSM FUD and IRA credit for Hybrids are all working ... also likely a lag for OEM sales with dealer networks

 

[jkirkwood001]

You hit the nail on the head. The core of their business with these AI chips is selling the compute time to other companies. The problem is (and I've heard it from a lot of sources) is that most non-tech companies are still struggling to find use cases for this "naive" AI that Chat GPT and the likes are making easily accessible.

The tech companies are doing great, but they have proper AI teams in place since before GPT made AI cool for the world. So Meta, Google, are using AI a lot in their ad business. Word on the street is that Meta went around Apple's privacy limits re tracking using AI. Microsoft is probably more user centric with their AI offerings.

Personally, I have no doubt that AI will have as much an impact on the world as the Internet did starting around 1990 (for those of us old enough to have been around needing to convince our companies, and our family and friends, that this was going to happen.)

Quick: what is the Internet's killer app? Bet you didn't think of one right away! Why not? Because it's in most everything. You interact with the Internet dozens if not hundreds or thousands of times per day.

Likewise, AI will replace most interfaces of systems of every type. AI will replace most analysis and administration tasks. AI-powered devices will replace most (all?) dangerous tasks. AI will assist in about every human task imaginable, including both practical ones and our entertainment.

I was going to say the only thing you do which won't use AI will be lying on the grass in your backyard. But then I thought of the AI-robot who 'thinks' - "hey, it's sunny out and I can 'see' J is lying in the backyard mid-afternoon. Usually he likes a glass of ___ around now. Maybe I'll bring him one. Chances are, he'd appreciate it." So even this scenario will have AI operating around you.

It's a good question, @Usain , but I don't believe we need to think which activity or system will benefit the most. AI will be a part of ALL of them IMHO.

 

[sunwarriors]

Some cities did not want natural gas wells in their towns, so the Texas legislature passed a law to prevent cities from doing this. So there are natural gas wells that release raw methane a few blocks from schools.

Some reference data, other Texans probably know this situation better:

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott signs law to bar city climate plans from banning natural gas as fuel source

House Bill 17 is a response to a trend in California, where cities have passed energy efficiency plans that prohibit new subdivisions from offering natural gas heating in order to reduce emissions.

www.texastribune.org

"In Austin, the city’s initial climate action plan would have virtually eliminated gas use in new buildings by 2030, but it was altered after Texas Gas Service opposed the measure, the Texas Observer reported in March."

Similar to our situation in CA where the large gas/electric companies (SDG&E. PG&E, SCE) have large lobbies to government. This is not the climate thread, but relevant to investments considering Tesla is moving their HQ to a very pro oil/gas state.

Climate proposals withered at the Texas Capitol this year

Proposals to improve energy efficiency failed. Bills that sought to limit greenhouse gas emissions in Texas were ignored, and legislation to block cities from taking action on climate change passed.

www.texastribune.org

"Lawmakers passed a huge economic incentives package to lure companies to Texas, which included the oil and gas industry but excluded wind and solar energy companies."

 

[SOULPEDL]

It happens often enough that it is outside the realm of just chance.

As I type I see the slow drip starting.

And yet it did not. Shocker! Closed at 81.14, not without trying damn hard through. Are they running out of shares to float?

Hoping for a rocket Monday! Maybe even AH... Depends on news of the day, lol.

(Edit: Yes the red peak is at 180).

 

[Opus BC fan]

Personally, I have no doubt that AI will have as much an impact on the world as the Internet did starting around 1990 (for those of us old enough to have been around needing to convince our companies, and our family and friends, that this was going to happen.)

Quick: what is the Internet's killer app? Bet you didn't think of one right away! Why not? Because it's in most everything. You interact with the Internet dozens if not hundreds or thousands of times per day.

Likewise, AI will replace most interfaces of systems of every type. AI will replace most analysis and administration tasks. AI-powered devices will replace most (all?) dangerous tasks. AI will assist in about every human task imaginable, including both practical ones and our entertainment.

I was going to say the only thing you do which won't use AI will be lying on the grass in your backyard. But then I thought of the AI-robot who 'thinks' - "hey, it's sunny out and I can 'see' J is lying in the backyard mid-afternoon. Usually he likes a glass of ___ around now. Maybe I'll bring him one. Chances are, he'd appreciate it." So even this scenario will have AI operating around you.

It's a good question, @Usain , but I don't believe we need to think which activity or system will benefit the most. AI will be a part of ALL of them IMHO.

and while we are on the subject of enjoying a sunny day...
THAT is a GREAT idea!

Have a good weekend all

 

[2daMoon]

Some reference data:

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott signs law to bar city climate plans from banning natural gas as fuel source

House Bill 17 is a response to a trend in California, where cities have passed energy efficiency plans that prohibit new subdivisions from offering natural gas heating in order to reduce emissions.

www.texastribune.org

Climate proposals withered at the Texas Capitol this year

Proposals to improve energy efficiency failed. Bills that sought to limit greenhouse gas emissions in Texas were ignored, and legislation to block cities from taking action on climate change passed.

www.texastribune.org

If you put in some effort you can likely find similar articles about bad legislation anywhere legislators congregate. That is what legislators do best, isn't it? Fact is, some people suck.

There is a greater than zero chance that some of them may get elected. Mostly because people who don't suck have better things to do with their lives.

So, there is still hope that those who suck and who find themselves in the public trust will eventually leave office and be replaced. Who replaces them will be decided at the polls (and/or through the media, influencing votes). Often with other people who suck, but are good at getting votes by telling people what they want to hear, before going on to craft bad legislation that benefits someone they know well.


Meanwhile, the world keeps spinning, and clever people find workarounds to onerous legislation and continue to try to save humanity from itself despite the obstacles put in their way. See the astounding Texas renewable energy production numbers from earlier.

It seems more worthwhile to focus on those clever people who don't suck. It does take more effort though. Not everyone is up to the task of holding a positive outlook amid a sea of negativity the way that Elon manages to do.

Or, consider what Richard Bach once wrote about how you can...

Argue for your limitations...
and...
they're yours​

 

[GOVA]

OT:
Subscribed to FSD. I am on 12.3.6 now. Just drove today to office and back ~15miles city traffic. Flawless victory. Elon wins.

Since this is only the proper beginning, I expect FSD to become a true beyond human monster soon.
Let's see which other company will get their head out of the sand and subscribe first.

 

[hobbes]

Troy does also post good news if it comes along:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1786402635311964191

 

[ShareLofty]

I voted yes for the Texas move. They can't stay in DE, so any move has a better chance of working out than staying in DE in my opinion. The board seems to agree.

You think the board did their due diligence on the move of incorporation to Texas? No, they blindly follow Elons wishes just as was proven in the compensation lawsuit

 

[cliff harris]

You think the board did their due diligence on the move of incorporation to Texas? No, they blindly follow Elons wishes just as was proven in the compensation lawsuit

your evidence for this is...what exactly?

 

[SPadival]

Going through Troy’s timeline, one wonders if he is a market researcher, IRA credit expert, battery materials expert, automation expert, CEO, China auto expert & Nostradamus rolled into one?

Asking for a friend.. but I will leave this here

https://twitter.com/x/status/1785408732970521081

 

[UncaNed]

Megapack 2XL has one 3 phase inverter per battery block (three modules) and slots into the container bankplane.
The pair of connections are likely the links to the modules.
View attachment 1044027
View attachment 1044028View attachment 1044029

Nice Herbert Ong Megapactory video; multiple Megapactories coming soon?-

 

[FastEddieB]

Quick: what is the Internet's killer app? Bet you didn't think of one right away!

In my head I answered “Google” in a heartbeat.

 

[hobbes]

Your choice is whether it's the right or left foot.

Good one