Recent content by EinSV

In 2019 Tesla’s federal tax credit phased out ($3750 in 1H and $1875 in 2H) and Tesla vehicles were not eligible for tax credits for the next three years (2020-2022). Reduction and then elimination of the tax credit over a four-year period is likely a major factor slowing US EV adoption in that...

A brief interruption from the Q1 ER to report that the Silicon Valley New Car Dealers Assn says full EVs exceeded 40% for the first time in Q1 (40.4%) Tesla had 29.3% market share, more than 2X Toyota (13.7%) and 4X Honda (7.3%), who were a distant 2nd and 3rd place. IMO EVs still on a path to...

Heard lots of good things about Madison Trust for self-directed IRAs but they were a nightmare to deal with the one time I worked with them and their foot dragging and bureaucracy led to me missing out on an opportunity — despite the company I was trying to invest in being very patient and...

You can invest with Forge with retirement account funds through entities like AltoIRA. Alto | Invest in Alternative Assets with a Self-Directed IRA There are other entities out there who act as IRA custodians so you might want to check around but I’ve generally had good experiences with Alto...

Elon said that reports that the Saudis and UAE were planning to invest in SpaceX were “not true”.

Thank you for the shout-out (and it was great to meet you in person!) A couple additional thoughts/data points I thought were worth sharing. First, a clarification — Santa Clara County (just south of San Mateo County) is usually considered the heart of Silicon Valley. Minor nitpick but the...

I think both #1 and #2 are intertwined with #3. Tesla's extremely low P/E relative to growth is a vote of no confidence that the company can maintain growth, profitability or both. Some of that is likely due to macro and some likely due to questions about Elon's management of the company and...

Elon is not acting like someone who wants to run even one public company much less two. He's also not behaving like someone positioning one of his companies for an IPO. With that in mind, IMO a Starlink IPO is unlikely until: (1) At least a modest tech stock recovery (2) Elon toning down his...

I am painfully familiar with this process after the Trump administration imposed countervailing tariffs on one of my major food groups -- French wine -- after the WTO gave them the green light to respond to Airbus subsidies. Quelle horreur!😜

Just a quick follow-up to point out that so far the EU's "retaliatory" response to the IRA has been to propose subsidies to bolster the local clean energy industry, rather than "cut off its nose to spite its face" by imposing tariffs on clean energy products it desperately needs. Germany and...

The Advanced Manufacturing Production Credit is in a separate section and the credit appears to be based on production -- not sales -- in the U.S.. I don't see any limitation based on the geography of the ultimate purchaser or any requirement that the ultimate purchaser has to be based in the...

Lathrop only has a "puny" 40 GWh capacity. Tesla will need at least 25X the production capacity to reach its goal of a TWh scale battery storage business. So yes, they'll need Megapack production in Europe and Asia and probably other locations around the world as well. Europe seems to have...

One important aspect of Megapack financials that is worth highlighting is how big of an impact price increases over the past 16 months are likely to have on TE margins in 2023 and especially 2024. The biggest increases have been for larger systems. For example, a 1000 Megapack order at...

If the rumored late September date for a CPUC decision is correct it sets up the possibility for Newsom to be a hero by “fixing” any nastiness that comes out of the CPUC before the election. Or, at least as likely, he could continue feeding from the trough of PG&E, other utilities and their...

EV market share should grow around 65-70% per year which would cross over 50% in 2026-27. Considering ~25% of auto consumers already plan to buy an EV for their next purchase this is not as far-fetched as some people might think. 25% of Americans Want to Buy an EV as Next Car, Says AAA Survey -...