Recent content by jpterpsfan

I'm guessing the holdup with European regulators approving Model 3 Autopilot is just standard testing on a new vehicle model. But...any indications it could possibly be because the European 3's have HW3 instead of HW2.5?

Does anyone Once SR + PUP is introduced, I think they cut the premium of the LR to $7-8k and just get rid of the MR entirely. I think they want only 2 battery configurations for manufacturing ease, and for each of those to have significant range differences. Just guesses, though.

I stand corrected, several sites still list 74 kWh as the total pack size. It appears the pack size is 80 kWh with 74 kWh of usable capacity. Modifying the pack size used in the calculation up from 75 kWh to 80 kWh moved the total GWh used for 7k/week for 13 weeks (all LR packs) up by 0.4 GWh...

I don't think that is true. Tesla Model 3: Exclusive first look at Tesla’s new battery pack architecture I think there is zero chance that they produce 74 kWh packs and software-lock them to be 50 kWh packs. Zero. Would kill margins unnecessarily. I completely agree that it would make sense to...

They significantly overautomated, had to rip out the parts conveyance system and other equipment that was not working consistently, did not properly test and benchmark the battery module production equipment whose development they outsourced, continually pushed back timelines for their...

Why did you not quote the rest of my post that explained why I was still an investor? And are you going to dispute any of what you quoted from my post?

Cell constrained for the future? I mean sure, but they aren't going to start producing Model Y or Semi cells at the start of Q2. I'm assuming Panasonic brings more battery cell lines online in Q4 specifically for the low-volume Y production in early 2020.

That is not what my username means. And I hold just over 200 shares of TSLA. The point of my posts isn't "to drag down the company", it's to set realistic expectations, goals, and unannounced plans for the year. People cannot pretend that Tesla hasn't royally screwed up Model 3 production. They...

They were cell-constrained in early-to-mid Q3. Then Panasonic added several cell lines since then, and is guiding for 35 GWh annual production capacity by the end of March. Again, just doing simple math together with Tesla's guidance is giving me significant excess capacity. Either they have...

Or their current production equipment cannot handle much more Powerwall/Powerpack production than their stated guidance.

Why would Panasonic publicly state an installed capacity that they knew could not be achieved? I don't buy that at all.

You keep misreading what my posts say. My calculation of excess capacity includes the assumption that they produce 3 GWh this year specifically for Tesla Energy. Please understand that I have already accounted for this when calculating the excess. I am not outright stating that the 2170s are...

From the Earnings Call: Semi production does not begin until 2020, and that response from Jerome did not sound like a "it will start 2020Q1". If 10% of cells have to be scrapped, then Panasonic does not know what they are doing. And again, Shanghai is down the pipeline, it would be extremely...

Well that was a nice formatting fail. EDIT: Fixed it in the previous post.

Straight from Tesla's guidance: Reading that, why is it unreasonable for me to think it will take them until Q4 to achieve this, but it's reasonable for you to think they will achieve this in Q2? The point of these estimates is to make conservative assumptions. Even when I included the...