Recent content by troym

comparison of Nasdaq and Tsla charts around noon when the latter surged would suggest not “regular movement”...

I believe TSLA rose 6% the day prior to Elon’s “all out” Semi comment and then another 7% the day of. Since, the “announcement” provided no concrete details, I thought the reaction was obviously overdone. IMO, TSLA’s frothiness began that week, in the $950-1050 range. Talking about a bubble...

I took a break from this thread the past week and so only read from Friday afternoon on, but one explanation for Friday’s absolute tear (which looks to continue into today, given pre-market) that I haven’t heard, is the price action of TSLA itself. In other words, it is being bid up simply...

Are/will 3/Y cannibalize S/X? What will happen to S/X? Revived with Plaid? Could levels once again reach 30k combined/Q? Or even more? From Hypercharts, Model S deliveries. 20 Q1 was 6.115k. 20 Q2 would be 5.3k with S/X split evenly. Model S upward growth trajectory ended 17Q4. 18 Q1/2...

Forgive me for my ignorance, but could you explain how producing 82k/vehicles Q2 vs 102k/vehicles Q1 affect COGs, if at all? I assume higher volume production in Q1 would equate to lower COGS/vehicle (Ceteris parabis) than Q2 due to fixed costs being spread over more units. Am I thinking about...

The macro dip I’m referring to will be easy to identify when it happens. If COVID induced, it will be preceded by an exponential rise in hospitalization/deaths. Deep out of the money protective puts would be my choice.

I agree with all points here, but to carry the discussion further... The chances of Tesla falling because shorts re-enter the stock is far greater than Tesla rising on short covering. Obviously, shorts have much more to gain with the SP at ATH's than anytime before. Ironically, historically...

Any reports of Y being delivered outside BC? Or is Tesla keeping its focus there given its proximity to Fremont and Q2 end approaching?

To elaborate, Jack theorizes why battery day has been delayed multiple times from 12:00 - 20:00. His argument is that they can't hold the event until the new batteries are already in vehicles being shipped for fear of Osborning sales of vehicles with the old batteries. He cites Model Y/3...

I’d wager Battery Day will be when Tesla is relatively the weakest (as per Autonomy Day). This could be after delivery/prod or earnings, with me favouring the latter. I’ll go with August. What is your definition of a bolded perceived low p and d?

Any confirmation that Silver Ray unloaded Tesla’s in Zeebrugee?

Thanks for the link. The short answer seems to be “a lot”.

@Mr Miserable, thanks for all your great work. Any idea how much more it would cost to ship to Europe via rail to East coast vs straight from San Fran?

Agree - this seems more likely to be the case than China regs as CPCA estimated 11095 a week ago vs Reuter’s 11 565 today. The move seems overdone for an extra 470 units.

I’ve been searching for the thread with Q1 delivery predictions and which members were closest but can’t find it. Anyone have the link? And same for Q2? Tks