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$NVDA I think we might actually break that support, my AI target was very short term and $967, but I don’t we’ll get there in this run.. could still happen, but I think it’s going to be sub $880, before $960+.

Still holding it, it wasn’t a full position and I still have insurance on my house and cars. ;-). I may move the SPY level up a tad 495/500, but I’ve got sunscreen in my eye at the moment and can’t see the options charts. ;-)

Finally coming over to the dark side.. - wringing hands emoji -

Welp, the next level WAS 5200, and now we’re through that.. I still think it’s going to be rug pull, but not before a blow off top. IF CPI next week WEDNESDAY at 05:30 PST, is anywhere near AT or BELOW expectations it’s going to be a very nice call selling day and or ATH in various places. I DO...

Put/call ratio for SPY May 17 is pretty high, yet VIX is falling.. I think the PUT buyers are going to win, but it could have just been MM taking advantage of fear.. Hedgies still taking money off the table, in some large amounts so maybe they are just freeing up some powder for the impending...

Maybe this is what you say, when you’re CLOSE to being de-listed? Maybe acquisition target? Even if they didn’t use them/it, they could probably sell the tech to someone else for more $$.

“The change puts fresh emphasis on the need to improve ventilation indoors and stockpile quality face masks before the next airborne disease explodes. Far from a remote possibility, measles is on the rise this year and the H5N1 bird flu is spreading among cattle in several states. Scientists...

Wow. I guess I was pretty spot on. Assuming the 50b is some amount of the legacy 56b deal

Yeah, I don’t really know where the other 130B is coming from, 40% of SpaceX might be worth 70B, I doubt anything else is worth a total of another 60B, but who knows. Dead Bird his ownership MIGHT be 8-10B. But, I do also think that his actual ownership of TSLA is higher than the 12% you list...

Not to be pedantic, but the entire company is only worth 571B TODAY, so how would - even if he had 58% - of 571B be 500B? Are you also adding in some portion (42%??) of SpaceX ~ 170B as well to these maths?

Yes please..

There is indeed NO uncertainty who ‘Bad Cop’ is within the federal governors space.. “I don’t see sub 2% inflation ANYWHERE on the horizon, let alone even 2%” “Frankly, we undershot for so many years sub 2%, that we needed to overshoot 2% for several years. Now, we’ll have to see SEVERAL...

Yes, but, For me, I’m often in this type of ALL IN target (and that doesn’t mean what it means in Texas hold’em)..because that is where I see total value for X at Y timeframe with Zed risk. But, for the most part I’m doing this all in relatively large TAX deferred accounts, so IF I get my all...

Well, nothing is ever truly safe, but we’ll be past Q2 earnings most likely then (7/17/24?), and Q2 P&D, so unless everyone is just assuming BAD/BAD again, we could rally. All these job cuts won’t add TOO much to reducing negative earnings - since everything pretty much comes with 1-3 months of...

I’m more confident with higher volatility between now and July, than in Dec.. Most elections years REGARDLESS of outcome - but this time really could be different, markets rally or at least stabilize post mid November. TWT.

Maybe you missed this post last Friday Update after posting: And It’s now pointing to 967

100% agree.. IDF was literally on the top of the fence…why wouldn’t Hamas just say “uncle, ok, we agree”.. and they change it all a week or two from now. I’ll take it though, time for selling more July calls.

Well they certainly wouldn’t do it all at once, but as for Lease that has nearly as much capital cost as a used can buy back.. actually more. The company is essentially financing what isn’t paid for. It is lower than a retail cost, since it’s only essentially the COGS wholesale cost that much...

This is something that I have brought up for a few years now since the big RT announcement (and been ridiculed for of course) but based on Tesla saying that RT is the future and that a Tesla in the fleet will “earn” easily 30K+ a YEAR for the owner, at SOME point Tesla should/will want to have...

So, you MAY have had a transition this past weekend, but the big one is NEXT weekend 5/10-5/12.. I’m still able to use TOS and TOS apps with my legacy TDA credentials. OT: What scared the BEJEASIOUS out of me last week was logging into my Schwab account where there is apparently a HIDDEN...

Technically the auto market is doing pretty well. Last year was 15.6 million total. This year we’re at a current run rate higher than that. Nearly 5.5m just in the first four months of the year. So something is working I doubt we’ll ever see the 17m years from half a decade ago but 15.5-16m...

Yeah, nobody believes this. We’ve heard it for half a decade now. I don’t care much about RT, but I would pay ~ another $5000 if I could drive to the airport and then just send the car home. More reliable, less stress, less chance of UBER cancellations - even with Reserve.. but sadly that...

There should be a poll with this thread.

I’ve seen a bunch driving around here lately. They do look really nice and sharper in person.

The numbers about EV “on the road” are a bit of a misnomer and I would argue much higher than 1%… while there are ~ 280M vehicles REGISTERED in the USA, there are roughly ~ 100-110M that are DRIVEN each day. We have four cars, ONE gets ~ 5 miles a day of use on avg.. (ok, technically I have a...

True but I thought @thenewguy1979 had contracts for next week not earnings week.

If they were cheap, probably a decent bet. IF we get a run, TAKE the money… as that level probably won’t happen - but it could.. you know, DBG.

My AI is telling me ~ $935 for NVDA in short order. I’m going to look to sell more calls again if we get up there. It would take quite a lot to get us back under $800 in the NEAR term.

5130 is strong resistance.. we’d have to have ppl really change opinion about Fed cuts (which HAVE changed a bit today for July/Sept cuts probability). Then 5180 is pretty strong resistance.. so getting past 5130 and filling that whole gap to 5180 I think there isn’t enough juice for that. I...

For $AAPL it’s NOT the WWDC that is in June, but rather next week just most likely new ipad release (which is LONG overdue) and possibly some other items. It will be most likely just be recorded videos of new products.. June 10th this year is the next BIG event catalyst which is WWDC and we are...

I was just about to post this, saw it earlier this morning. It SEEMS like a pretty big deal for sector at least, I wonder when/if someone will derive which auto’s were to date excluded and which will unlock the $3750 or $7500 credits again...

Medal for LONGEST POST EVER is this commandment four or five. I've lost track Jim. Whatever you did back in the day. I'm sure you did it well

Well 22,000 shares isn’t 210,000 shares… but I see your point. foruntately (unfortunately?) it didn’t happen but I’ve had my nose to the grindstone for the past 30 years (with the MBA and MS that my apple shares paid for) so maybe it was all according to the markets plan?

Nope. It’s not about absolute macro destruction/decay and more about seasonality, sentiment, timing and opportunity. All happy moves up in inidividual, sector or overall index moves are ripe for rug pull mkt movements. There is a lot of happy over reactions here, that ends up decaying within...

Well they do have 20B plus in C/CE and I’m sure they are getting 5%+ annualized on those reserves.. assuming there is still someone working in Treasury.

That’s not really apple… they don’t really do large expensive acquisitions, and they are not really CapEx intensive in what they DO develop.. no new large factories required, or ”gigapresses” or land, or real estate.. so yes, once the pile becomes sufficiently large (I’m seeing an image of...

If they had gotten over 500B in C/CE I would have been banging the table for a special dividend… 2.7 TRILLION would be a lot of cash to keep in C/CE It’s days like this where the juvenile investor in me with AAPL shares at a s.a. 12 CENTS who sold the postion at 60 CENTS says - you stupid idiot...

It’s possible.. but since I use TOS for 99% of my interaction with TDA, and will continue to use TOS for the same interaction with Schwab, I hope that it won’t be too bad. I’d had to deal with SCHW for a while now for 1099 and the like for some accounts I’ve had there through other...

PSA: I just spoke with my friend/contact at Schwab about TDA account migration. For those of you/us who use TOS and TDA, the “last group” to be transitioned is happening on 5/10 which is the NEXT Weekend. As I understood a while ago this was mostly for heavy TOS users, options, futures, forex...

Yes, noted.. thx

I’m guessing orders..I’d like to see what has actually happened to the reservation backlog.. I’ll look elsewhere.

Survey says Not likely. Quick crowd source question: Anyone know if it’s true that ppl ordering CT literally 1-2 months ago are receiving confirmed VIN for delivery now? Anyone here have that experience? I’m not sure WHEN exactly @BornToFly put their order in, but it was most likely YEARS ago.

I do NOT see the 10 yr regaining 5%, or 4.95%, but I did see it going back over 4.3%,,,and well here we are ~ 4.6%.. I think we could top tick again at ~ 4.7% (with some stretch built in) but higher most likely not for more than a day.

Remember futureguy? $185, all that GEX attraction up there what 2-3 weeks ago… we hit a new low. If the pattern always worked, none of us would be here. After the week we had, I’m not surprised there is a lot of net GEX up above $190-210… that was trajectory just what 60 hours ago? No REAL...

this most recent gap up, and then failure to hold and lower low than the initial gap - is not a healthy doji/dojo/domo/grey poupon We’ve seen gaps like this before and they have nearly always failed to hold, and have led to a newer recent/near term low - before being able to stabilize and...

Patience is not inaction.

THAT WAS CRAZY! Sadly (and somewhat predictable) MM and other large positions holders just wanted to get clear, 2-5% higher.. so thesis intact.

they’re slowing balance sheet roll off, this is most likely step one of easing.

Hmm, twitters peak value from purchase is down 66-75% depending on whose mark to mark metric one uses.. Tesla is currently ONLY down ~ 45%, so maybe a bit more to go?

Dude, they are coming to your HOUSE!… but seriously.. this could be back over $1000 by mid June July…if you’ve got something against them for cover that is.