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That doesn’t seem to be anywhere near your normal learned pattern.. BET FIVE to possibly MAKE ONE?

The data/info is the data info, but I’m not really buying his interpretation, but that’s just me. Just because there are a ton of calls that MM are willing to sell at ZERO premium, i mean these are cheap as .. calls.. FOR FRIDAY. It’s too much to explain entirely, but it reads to me more that...

I guess we have our NEW wall $150… Not going back over all the backdata, this seems to be the biggest wall ever. someone once again really wants to either protect position or capitalize significantly from below that level. We’ve seen it all year, 185/180/170/165 and now here.

Under

It’s gain vs. projection to use… so you did better from the cars need to maintain whatever temp, than it would have projected.

Certainly possible that’s what makes a market. I have the feeling that earnings will be bad for Q1 (we pretty much know this) and earnings are looking even WORSE for Q2 (which we are IN), sales projections are probably down for Q2, so reduce overhead - human capital now, early in the quarter...

135-138

I’ve had that one happen with v12. And with a biker coming down the right side bike lane going straight when the car wanted to turn right. Had to disengage for sure. Granted. Stupid biker. But still.

At this point is just a buck for a buck… almost no premium. So if you continue to want a buck as the stock goes down, hold it, otherwise it’s a sell on the next little drop.

Yoona, can you change your Avatar to the one with the surprise face?

Thoughts? Could this be possibly some sort of overall and significance PIVOT to possibly more solid state battery design.. I mean CATL seems pretty confident with what they are putting out there and ready to start producing in higher volume. They are really putting their money where there...

Count? For what? Wait, did I bet that I’d eat a shoe again AFTER having had my scotch? ;-)

As I said yesterday, I think it’s no likey till likey.. @KTD, I know 10% of X IS Y, but having worked for many years directly in Automotive, 14,000 just sounds like a LOT. YTD, that’s pretty much the BIGGEST “tech” layoff by at least 50% and I think probably even back six months.

Wow, 14,000 workers laid off?… that’s a TON. More than I would have estimated. To another posters comment about possible factory shifts, that sounds a bit like a SHIFT at each factory? Or maybe a whole factory? I guess we’ll know soon enough.

I think todays action might be the trend for the next couple days..assuming no big geo-political action overnight, morning rally, afternoon sell off and risk off. Probably a couple days at least assuming no kinetic activity in that time frame.

Nice.. looking at the longer term chart it appears that the OVERSHOOT late 2021 compared to SPY, was very similar to the UNDERSHOOT in 2023 to SPY.. similar to Jul 2023, so I wonder what that portends for whatever “correction” the SPY is going through now, if it IS going to repeat similarly, it...

Nice chart, and what point can all this just be automated? ;-)

Fear of global geo-political escalation, OIL rising (though not today, it would) and overall E not pulling us out of high P/E levels for the time being. Ain’t it grand? With yields rising, and $DXY rising, it usually means investor’s big ones are selling their bonds (thus yields rising) and...

PSA: mkt doesn’t always give you much time to sell.

zero chance they could shut down Fremont and move it to Tesla and be back up and running with similar production volume in 1Q, let alone 2Q. IF they did that, it’s another story of consolidation - but not a good one, and would be a much greater indicator that they see VERY low demand and most...

Maybe they CANCEL this just in time to ANNOUNCE that anyone WITH FSD at this point gets to KEEP FSD for any future vehicle… for a small fee. “You get a car, and YOU get a CAR!”

I saw some posts, what Fri/Sat.. I didn’t know they had been “confirmed”,, but if they are, I think it will be more negative than positive. Normally, companies get props for right sizing, doing the 5% thing - this IS the year of “efficiency” but for a manufacturer mostly it means they just...

We’ll know in a couple hours. Could be they simply threw a bunch of volley balls over the fence and Israel may do next to nothing. At that point I doubt we’d get too much vol. oil will most likely to $90 and $95. $DXY increasing in strength. You wanna see some vol. check out $BTC

Like many ppl of this ilk they think they are so smart, that they can just wing it and do better than ANYONE… and that’s truly not always the case.. SJ, spent sometimes WEEKS working on every last word, where he wanted to be on the stage, timing of the slides, etc.. and it paid off. Two hours...

You’re right, it’s probably ~ 45K x 6-8K average.. so much closer to 300M, not including compounding or adjustments.. I still think that any monetary settlement would be higher than just average amount paid, and to be paid back, refunded or credited towards a future purchase. So, I’m thinking...

Question… now that Iran has launched drone attacks against Israel, will that be covered here, or will we need a NEW WAR thread for Israel Iran War?

This is something I commented on when V12 first came out.. the rumble bumps, those little round disks on the right or left side of a lane, or the groove carve outs in the asphalt that are meant to make a vibration and noise to indicate to the driver that they are OUT of a lane.. sometimes these...

Yeah, it was definitely before that.. pre Jan 2020, since I was IN the GYM and I have’t been IN a gym since then (built one at home, saves a TON of time). I know where I was standing and what workout I was doing, can see the mirror and the Roman curl stand. I was listening to an afternoon...

Informative as usual.. thanks for the work. I wonder if there is ANY way to estimate what the transfer to new vehicle rate is.. 50% sounds high, 10% sounds low, something like 20-25% seems most reasonable - but as you say we really have no way of knowing.. But at least we know the universe of...

Wasn’t there a pre-covid times company number of FSD take rate that was 8%, from either a conference call or some scrappy extrapolation of FSD deferred revenues, vs. FSD capable vehicles sold that someone came up with and then essentially got EM or the CFO to ‘confirm’?

Well now at least I have my Sunday morning homework. TIA

This one at least, WHY would you do that one? What does it get you? Other than a wild card hedge against the STO for the same expiry?

Indeed, and I’ve said since Sept 2023 “it will be back” and in the end, it’s never really gone away - so yeah, they are sort of just doing it. But yes, it’s probably not more than 15% of NA owners, and probably LESS than 10% of EMEA owners, if not in the mid to high SINGLE digits of EMEA I’d...

It’s an interesting report, and not unexpected nor unreasonable… and I’m NOT intending to spread any CS or FUD, or anything like that.. but the highest risk, and this applies to MANY vaccinations (note, I don’t say VACCINES) is within 30 DAYS of vaccination and not 100 days. Technically, covid...

Technically, for what it’s called FSD it’s worth more than $99, but right NOW I think that’s all it’s worth IF RT is real and could be utilitized, it’s worth a. LOT more than $299 a month, probably 2x that at least TOTALLY, the 15K fee IF lifetime, that would be totally worth it.. I would argue...

I am not buying any TSLA right now… today I deployed $$ in PFE, UNH, BAC, JPM, ADBE, GOOGL and RIVN (oh the horror)

Well, and JUST enough not to piss off TOO many ppl who paid 15K for something, that hasn’t materialized yet, with a car out of warranty but with a 10 year battery warranty. $99 a month, ~ $1200 a year, unless one can come and go as the please.. Whereas the poor schlub who paid $15K at some...

I looked up “calibrated” in the international terrorist dictionary and it says… “how do I attack my intended target WITHOUT PISSING OFF THE USA!” There’s probably some terrorist AI that works on these problems for them. I wonder if it’s running on AWS, or something more local. ;-). It’s...

Mkt loves #FBI

Mkt loves #FBI

Go’s into the pantheon of investor mantra.

Lots of tech breaching 50’s. Some in death cross too. ABDE looks sickly. I guess my. May 625 -calls aren’t being called away.

Staircase up. Elevator down.

Honestly, if you drive 61 in the rain or night on FSD you’re braver than I am. Or even just 378 on Maui in the dark. I can’t imagine it.

Yeah, they would have to find a way to keep ppl from easily moving in and out.. so price, for 90 or 180 days minimum, or can only cancel and restart once every 12 months.. something like that. Otherwise, it’s just here and there, and not modelable FBI

I hate to be THAT guy, but frankly putting it at this time and date (and the move of earnings call back six days to 4/23, and AFTER the monthly options expiry) - smells like Tesla wants to have some new possibly market influencing news to deploy BEFORE the E day.

ZOOX does a ton of testing in our neighborhood, I could predict where they would pop out by time of day and dow… about six months ago I had to pull my wife over to the shoulder as the zoox highlander was coming right at us while in the bike lane/walking lane.. granted, we are walking INTO the...

Most likely IRAN attack on Israel over the weekend, $DXY has been too strong (flight to safety and no rate cuts soon), making most things cheaper - expect GLD as a geopolitical hedge and OIL as a supply reduction hedge. War bad, peace good. $VIX up ~ 45% in four trading days.

Now THAT makes more sense.. I will say, I have noticed something random and I need to test it out more… but do you remember when one was able to tap tap tap on the speed limit sign and it would automatically take the speed to the speed limit,, either up or down? Well, I was tapping around...

Totally makes sense and with the NHTSA crack down that is what they should do. But, that isn’t what one of the above posters was indicating was a restriction and that they were ABLE to use the scroll wheel to go ABOVE what was posted as MAX, which is what I said - I was NOT able to do.