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Technically this will be robotaxi unveil #6, after the S unveil and then the X unveil and then the 3 unveil and then the Y unveil and then the CT unveil right

Something needs to counter the people posting that they're buying, or you might end up with a view distorted to one side Like some big names on Twitter posting when Aunt Cathie is buying TSLA but crickets when she talks about selling on stock price spikes much less when they're actually selling.

Tesla has already been producing cars without steering wheels — some have yokes. Thinking that would happen any time in the foreseeable future, people should keep in mind that Elon wanted the Model Y to not have a steering wheel.

I think FSD is a demand lever for sure, you have all these people who sunk upwards of $15k into this and maybe they would have stuck with Tesla regardless but those sunk costs are a good motivator to, when allowed to transfer. And it helps encourage upgrades and fresh sales, because plenty of...

Hopefully you caught it after the $18.5k price cut going into the final month of Q3 Pretty gross behavior IMO

Ah yes FSD transfer, the one-time amnesty from 2Q23 so make sure you lock in your orders in Q3 or else because won't be happening again except for every single quarter since then

This is exactly why I want to hear about the ramp issues, because to me it doesn’t even make a lot of sense that such issues would exist when they already did the dang thing at Shanghai and it’s not like it’s a brand new vehicle or something. It might be the ol’ chicken and the egg, there might...

It’s 100% a correct comparison for the Chinese market yup, where BYD operates almost exclusively. I think we know what Ross believes the board problems are, whether accurate or not, and they are not applicable to the market within which BYD operates almost exclusively. Can only imagine Ross...

Both Ross’ and Elon’s tweets need more context. Elon’s comment is obviously only applicable to the Chinese market where BYD sells almost all of its vehicles, and I’m not sure that is what Ross is referring to. Now we can talk about the issues at Fremont, and I’d love to hear why that ramp is...

Delivery numbers are down YoY, not just QoQ. But Tesla at current valuation is doing fantastically for a car company. Tesla as of today’s close is worth 10 Fords, 10 General Motors, or five of each. Tesla today is worth more then Toyota, Ford, General Morors, Rivian, Lucid, and 313 Fiskers...

It might come down to volume and training data, HW3 Model 3/Y are where all the volume are and training the system depends on massive amounts of data. Each vehicle has cameras in slightly different locations, and each hardware configuration will also differ, so its all different training sets...

Q220 and Q222 drops were related to COVID shutdowns, and the inventory trends were quite different at the time

As a general rule, red days are for buying and green days are for selling not the other way around. Problems can emerge when people refuse to accept reality, however, or even consider viewpoints that conflict with their core beliefs and this can be disastrous when combined with risky investing...

Who is Tim Cook, does he have any relation to Tim Apple? Maybe Elon needs an alter ego like this to provide some separation. The scary thing is, Elon probably already uses burner accounts for his most controversial Twitter posts and then, after getting that out, switches to his official...

Before COVID I believe the target inventory on hand for the big automakers was more like 90 days, that was a pretty standard number. However for Tesla to move from its historical level of inventory to 70-90 days is an absolutely massive amount of money spent with zero revenue for those...

Every time the Troy haters have come out in full vocal force, he ends up being too optimistic.

As usual with a quarter freshly in the rear view mirror, expectations going forward are what will likely drive valuations. My expectation is that more and more people will come around to what Elon has been saying for years now: autonomy is what will determine whether Tesla is "worth a lot of...

4” can make a very big difference for some things but not sure it does here. I was coming up with a 19” average on Google.

San Francisco is classified as semiarid yup

Even with LiDAR and radar on top of vision, Waymo today operates only in arid climates and literal deserts lol Then again if the planet continues warming as it has, more of North America will gradually become desert and precipitation (especially the riskier frozen variety) might become less of...

Retailinvestor has a lot on the line, their account is 4 full weeks older than Troy's tweet

Assistant to the ASSistant regional manager To take liability I think it needs to be safer in every situation and that anything less will be problematic. Overall mileage will be an interesting metric but I’ve often thought they would end up breaking it down into more granularity by road type...

Exactly the progression Tesla described to the California DMV four years ago, it just took longer than anticipated.

The shift out of Beta and into (Supervised) makes complete sense to me and totally aligns with what Tesla told the Cali DMV four years ago: a *final* wide release to the fleet will still be Level 2. Couple tidbits I found interesting, this is currently the only mention I see of (Supervised) on...

I don’t really see that type of thing being a problem when the system is the multiple safer than humans necessary to unlock robotaxis, but certainly nothing is unpossible People might not even notice the small stuff when they’re a passenger in the vehicle being autonomously driven from starting...

Accepting liability at all is already an extremely high bar, Elon has thrown numbers out there in the March of 9 spiels like needing to be 1,000% or even 10,000% safer than the average human. When you get there, I don’t know how much further there is to go? Guess I don’t picture Tesla taking...

I'm not sure that changes the affordability equation until people can secure more financing based upon projected robotaxi revenue like it's a business plan Who knows, maybe that's in the works directly from Tesla. But then Tesla might not even need to sell the cars and split the profit, just...

How can Hardware 4 be better than Hardware 3 if Hardware 3 unlocks robotaxis? That is peak FSD. Will Hardware 4 take even more liability? I don’t know what this means.

I think the only people buying FSD are shareholders and extreme tech enthusiasts. The next big thing is supposed to be the $25k car, and people shopping in the $25k range are likely not paying an extra $12k for a software option lol. I don’t think even people shopping in the $40k range are...

Good to see FSD is out of Beta now!

He’s a man of extremes for sure, his tweet history is full of other things that we can maybe just say he’s not so optimistic about lol

Tesla won an appeal to still use the “Full potential for autonomous driving” name but needed to add disclaimers and change wording etc. Oh Elon

Is there a tweet or something of Elon saying the goal for v12 is unsupervised operation? The OEDR hasn’t changed, all the limitations specified in these 2020 letters still exist four years later. FSD is better at doing turns and navigating roundabouts, but those were never part of the...

This is the one that I always come back to, and it feels pretty unambiguous to me but I understand people not wanting to believe it. There is tons of scrutiny of Level 2 systems, the regulators have been pretty far up in Tesla’s business along the way. It’s Level 2 because Tesla can’t accept...

Tesla was already sued over FSD's naming years ago in Europe and needed to modify a bunch of the wording on the order page and in advertisements, though the Cali DMV is likely going a step further because those modifications have also existed on the US site since those changes were made in...

At this point it seems like "regulatory approval" would be more applicable to deploying FSD as a Level 2 ADAS with hand-free functionality, it feels like the regulators are directing a lot more scrutiny towards that type of thing where these advanced driver assist systems are operating in cars...

Here's Elon describing the process back during Autonomy Day 2019, this starts at 2:45:38 if it doesn't timestamp properly So you have the following three steps (at that time): Feature complete Feature complete to the degree that Tesla thinks the driver doesn't need to pay attention Feature...

I still very much think the goal is to get to robotaxis…. in some future hardware/software iteration, just not the one that exists in vehicles manufactured to date.

Pretty fly for an AI

Analysts have been voicing concerns about China overbuilding EV production capacity for some time now, so there's an easy obvious implication here. Shanghai as of Q4 had >950,000 production capacity. Of course it's hard to extrapolate based on just Jan + Feb data, with New Year thrown in there...

Adding more cameras, or any other sensors for that matter, opens up a whole other can of worms in then requiring training data from those new camera locations and sensors. But I’ve been convinced FSD in its current configuration was always intended to remain Level 2, the human is there to...

It’s a Level 2 ADAS and drivers should be intervening/disengaging when it is about to do stupid things.

I’d be wondering if this is affecting the Model S/X rollout outside of areas in California where the vehicles are less numerous and thus data are lacking.

I'd be curious what impact Nvidia's new product has on Nvidia's own autonomous vehicle and robotics efforts.

You’d hope solving autonomy would do a lot more than just bring the stock back to under where it was a week ago

Are you wishing for price inflation after all this? Autos are one of the components in the inflation metrics most closely watched by the Fed. Car prices need to not go up, for everyone’s sake

A SAE Level 4-5 system needs to be much, much better than all Uber drivers and much, much better than regular everyday drivers. It’s promising to hear that v12.3 is excelling in smoothness and such, this is critical for wide release as a Level 2 driver assist.

Tesla’s test-running this left turn far predates the current saga. Chuck was doing this turn and posting it on YouTube for a long, long time with little appreciable progress until Tesla first sent people there to specifically work on it and that’s when the creep barrier appeared, the car...

Yup, Toyota is the vast majority of that comparison Mercedes’ Level 3 Traffic Jam Assist functionality sounds like it would be particularly good in this situation, where you can actually stop paying attention to what the vehicle is doing.

Tesla at the moment is worth more than Toyota, Ford, and GM combined. In terms of comparisons with car manufacturers, that seems not so bad. The stock price was also $60 lower just over a year ago