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This is why I think Tesla will likely mention they left the quarter with production at a record pace (probably over 1.5m annualized). That’s the more important number going forward.

But what does a store that sells rifle butts have to do with anything? 🤓

As I’ve said before, they’ve been saying “VW is gonna be bigger than Tesla two years from now” for over a decade…

Looking at Cali’s “duck curve”, that 6.9GW of stationary storage would almost eliminate it provided that they are rated for four hours! Take a rough look at the values on the left… will brownouts and the recent unreliability soon be a thing of the past?

BTW, that EIA source lists under construction & planned battery capacity as well, here’s what that looks like: https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/xls/table_6_05.xlsx (Annoyingly it’s listed in peak power in megawatts rather than storage capacity) 6,859 California 3,103 Texas 1,493 Nevada...

https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/ According to this, these are the planned solar capacity additions by state (MW): 12,606 Texas 7,145 California 4,198 Nevada 2,711 Ohio 2,398 New York 2,367 Florida 1,799 Colorado 1,732 Virginia 1,681 Illinois 1,489 Wisconsin 1,466 Oregon 1,262 North...

The number one state for renewable energy isn’t California… it’s Texas. And it’s not even close. If Texas were it’s own country, it’d be #1 in the world for wind and solar generation per capita, beating out current leader Denmark by a large margin. Texas produces 2.5x more electricity than...

Believe it or not, but we’re probably at the point in the mission where the people who don’t believe in climate change but will actually allow you to build factories/mines/etc in reasonable amounts of time will advance the mission more than the people who believe in climate change but will...

TBH I’m constantly surprised Reddit is still used… it has one of the worst formats on the internet.

“A study by Bloomberg Intelligence expects the German giant to double production to more than 2 million battery-powered vehicles in 2024, overtaking Tesla” LOL Tesla will be at an over 2m production rate in just a few months (Q4 this year), not 2024.

See what Cramer is saying and assume the opposite… about a 90% success rate. 🥸

Yep. Then my very rough guesses are 400k for Q3 and 500k for Q4, with $4b and $5b in profit.

Weekend tidbits… Solar electricity production, GWh: Graph, solar electricity generation per capita (KWh) over time:

I suspect we’ll see something along the lines of “Tesla exited the quarter with production at a record 1.5m annualized rate” in the P&D report.

-First company to $10t market cap in 2030s -First company to $1t in revenue Watch.

They play “Yakety Sax” on the loudspeakers and the workers can’t help but move at 2x speed.

How on earth is NKLA still a thing!?!?

They will probably have a write down almost as large as the Q1 write down. I think it’s 50/50 Amazon even makes any profit at all this year. If they’re lucky profit could recover to ~$20b next year… which means trading at over 50x next year’s income even with the recent drop! I think Amazon...

Yes, Tesla is the outlier

Operating income has been declining at Amazon for over a year now, and Rivian doesn’t even factor in to that. It’s down by about half over the last year. Recession and $5 gasoline hasn’t even factored in yet either! Facebook? In decline. Apple? Plateauing. Probably declining if inflation is...

Earnings could certainly decline at tech. It’s already happening at Amazon and Facebook, and if people decide to wait on their new iPhone because it costs $150 to full their car up it could happen at Apple too. A lot of the smaller companies lose money or barely make any at all. TTM Growth...

Earnings will decline for most companies if a likely recession occurs (will be temporary though). Tesla estimates are low though. On Q2 earnings you’re probably gonna see a whole bunch of companies guide lower. I mean, the market is estimating $40 billion in profit next year for Amazon, which...

P/E ratio is about middling. If recession comes profits for the market as a whole will probably temporarily decline. PEG ratio for Tesla is probably around 0.75-0.80 now. Strong buy.

Gwynne is IMHO one of the best managers in the country or perhaps even the world.

I saw this chart a few days ago and I think it’s an increasingly likely scenario: Basically market is reverting to it pre “make it rain” trend. By end of year recessionary data should be reversing too.

😔

This happened back in 2000 tech bubble too. A lot of stocks went from being worth tens of billions to having negative enterprise value in the space of like 12-18 months.

For comparison, The NASDAQ is around 10% above its pre-COVID high, which is slightly below inflation since then. Tesla is ~3.5x it’s pre-COVID high.

~25x next year’s earnings.

🤓

Everything’s getting hosed…

S&P500 is now below it’s pre COVID peak adjusted for inflation

I know, I know… I didn’t know how to do it on my Google sheets phone version.

Heeyyyyo! 🥳

VW would never be disingenuous! VW has been promising to pass Tesla “in two years from now” for over a decade now.

Volkswagen’s EV growth it saw in 2021 is petering out. Last year VW sold 451k EVs to Tesla’s 936k. For Q1 this year VW sold 98k to Tesla’s 310k, so from roughly double to roughly triple. VW’s ICE business is also getting kicked in the nuts...

Lol, I needed a good joke, thanks for the belly laugh.

Here’s a 5 year rolling average motor Vehicle production graph for European countries: (1954-2021)

Little chart tidbit, motor Vehicle production since 1954 smoothed out using 5 year rolling average: Blue = Western Europe (EU-15 + Norway and Switzerland). Interestingly it looks like the US will produce more motor vehicles than western Europe this year for the first time since 1968.

Housing is less affordable than its ever been. It needs to come down. It’s really screwing the younger generations.

German automobile industry ain’t doing too hot… Motor Vehicle production, 1950-2021 (red area is East Germany)

Fixing the inflation problem is worse in the short term but a far better option in the long term. This is not something you want to get out of control.

Closer to a 100 mi square, not 100 square miles EDIT- here’s how it compares existing land use:

😳

Some good news for today though:

ARK is down 9%… 😬😳

I think people here have been a bit insulated towards the inflation problem because of being invested in Tesla, and owning an EV shields from high gas prices, but for everyone else real wages are currently declining at the fastest pace in a very long time. Real wages are declining so fast that...

Yield curve inverted deeply.

Everything’s down like 3-5% in premarket… 😬