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Dahn is just looking at the timescale more from the standpoint of technology development and innovation instead of through the eyes of an impatient investor who wants mass production to begin two weeks ago.

The statement I took issue with: That allegation is most certainly is a TSLAQ talking point and it's a false allegation because there has never been a Cybertruck tested under European NCAP protocols for pedestrian safety. We have zero reason to believe the Cybertruck would fail those tests and...

The Supercharger Network is one of Tesla's most valuable assets in terms of being able to leverage it to create more future car sales. And the best way to do that is to increase the user base to make an increasing number of out-of-the way Supercharger locations economically viable. The value of...

Obviously, the lawyers were in it for themselves, and I never suggested otherwise. The lawsuit required significant funding for expert witnesses. I don't have the value, but I think it was over $1 million for that alone. It's possible the lawyers invested the money themselves because they...

The discount rate refers to the rate of return an investor expects. So, by assuming an ending value, and the desired discount rate, an investor can theoretically determine whether they think a stock is fairly valued. Given a known starting value and ending value after a given amount of time, the...

I recommend not repeating TSLAQ talking points here as if they are credible.

The media will pan the initial Cybertruck for lack of range regardless of whether it's a 300 mile or 500-mile version. The media will pan it's aesthetic and everything else that is different from a traditional pickup truck. Not because those are bad things, just because they are different...

The Cybertruck is going to handle far better than any 1/2 ton pickup on the market. EV's do have lower body roll due to the lower center of gravity but going from 120 kWh (300+ miles range) to 190 kWh (500+ miles of range) is not going to significantly reduce body roll, it's just going to...

Good thought but I know sailboat racers pay huge attention to getting rid of that kind of waviness because it creates serious drag. Does the lower viscosity of air vs. water, combined with the higher speed of a land vehicle negate that? I don't know, perhaps. But it seems more like a by-product...

The other factor that argues for the 300-350 mile range version being the initial release version, is weight. Tesla has never released a light vehicle with such a large, heavy, battery (around 190 kWh). The release version of the Cybertruck will be extensively tested by automotive journalists...

My disagreement was with the sources who claimed the 500-mile Cybertruck would have a 250 kWh battery. It's either purposeful misinformation or extreme ignorance. Which version Tesla releases first, 300-350 mile or 500 mile is anyone's guess. That's a business decision Tesla will make. The size...

Remember, I'm comparing the relative lack of waviness of the initial prototypes to the distinct waviness that started appearing on prototypes about a year ago. I'm not trying to split hairs, I'm saying it indicates a change in production techniques, either how it's welded or, that Tesla is...

Forecasting the future has many potential pitfalls, therefore it makes sense to minimize the errors as much as possible. It doesn't make sense to purposefully skew estimates of things like kWh capacity of a battery pack because your estimates of other things have a bias to one side or the other...

OK smartypants, do you care to tell us what the actual discount rate of TSLA was in the middle of 2019, assuming a price of $223.50 June 30, 2019 (split adjusted $14.90) and we assume the current price of $190 is a reasonable valuation. Because it sounds like you are assuming the market price...

To be clear, I'm not one of the people who is worried about the waviness, even if Tesla can't tune the production process to get rid of it by production time. That said, I think the original prototypes without the wavy appearance do have a more uniform and higher quality appearance and I think...

It's way off-base to think there will be a 250 kWh version of the Cybertruck, especially as the launch version. It should only need 200 kWh to go well over 500 plus miles and I bet the launch version is the 300+ mile version with a battery capacity a lot closer to 155 kWH. I don't know which...

I don't believe aggrieved speculators instigated the lawsuit, they were sniffed out by lawyers working for people who wanted to harm Tesla/Elon Musk. Of course, they are going to join the suit when told they don't have to pay for the attorneys if they lose.

Last summer I posted the observation above, an observation that was precipitated by the sudden appearance of Cybertruck prototypes that had a waviness to the panels that was apparent when reflections in the panels were viewed obliquely. The initial prototypes, I believe including the one that...

The jury saw through the mainstream media's claim that this was a suit brought by shareholders. They saw it was just another attack by short-sellers and those who wanted Tesla to fail. The fact they only deliberated an hour is just one more example of Musk's ability to hire the right people and...

I'm not a fan of attributing big moves mostly to one whale or one big fund. That's not how the market works unless you're dealing with penny stocks, yet people love to construct realities they think explain what they are seeing. It's like personifying a storm, it gives them something to relate...

It's not hard, quite simple actually, but I agree, most people make a mess of it. The shotgun approach doesn't work as well as concentrating your investments in a very small number that have a low risk. Managing risk is key because it doesn't take many losses to wipe out some nice gains. But you...

You're worried how the paint and resale value of a Model 3 will hold up if you have to push aside some hedges on narrow lanes and get some micro-scratches in the clear coat?? Oh, my! I never knew I was hanging with such stuffy, straitlaced Tesla people! Have some fun and live a little! Tesla...

I retired at age 37 (from capital appreciation of growth stocks) and have been living off the capital appreciation of growth stocks for the last 23 years. Had I gone the dividend route, I would have had to budget my annual spending and I would still be living on a budget. I went the growth stock...

This post seems out of sorts with the general wisdom contained in most of your posts. Specifically, yes, it is a long strategy, that's the only way Elon runs any company, for the long-term vision. Why are you worried about how the market values Tesla's pricing strategy in the short-term? I would...

I can't blame you one bit!

I don't know, that depends upon the batteries. Unfortunately, we don't have very good visibility on that except for the positive forward-looking statements and general confidence management has been pretty consistent with. Therefore, without more reliable info to the contrary, I'm going to...

On the surface, it looks more like a strategy to make it easier for the CEO and the rest of management to continue getting performance bonuses and other compensation, even as parts of the business are bleeding money. Divide and conquer those performance bonuses. And, yes, I know the BoD is...

If investors were rational, Tesla would be green tomorrow, because Tesla was operating in the same business environment that everyone else was in. But that's a very big "if".

Absolutely not! First principles thinking does not dictate your goals or whether a personal decision is logical or rational, it is merely a method of looking at things that helps you avoid thinking you know more than you do. It's more a world view than a tool. There is no downside to using it on...

OK, then, you and I and a very few other very select people! ;) Anyone who thought Elon was going to ruin Tesla, or that it would even be more than a blip in the long-term, never made sense to begin with. And that was my point, they either knew better but just wanted to make negative noises...

OK, then. Carrier is regularly rated #1-3 in the US for heat pumps? Is that like GM leading the electrification of the auto industry? Hint: Yes, it is. Follow the money. Carrier has huge advertising budgets, of course it's going to place near the top of the heap when they have paid all the...

It wouldn't surprise me to see fewer than your guess this year and more next year. But it's almost impossible to guess because it will be all about the batteries. If Tesla gets the 4680 ramp dialed in, and has plenty of raw materials, expect to be surprised to the upside. If not, expect...

I had to fix that major mistake! Insignificant spelling error left alone.

Pointing out how deficient your Carrier heat pump is in cold weather is like pointing out how a Ford Lightning is a pain to charge on road trips. You can get a lot better cold-weather heat pumps from Japanese manufacturers. The design of the heat pump must be optimized for the climate it is to...

This is what happens when you don't have a structural battery: https://driveteslacanada.ca/news/battery-pack-ejected-from-audi-e-tron-during-crash-in-richmond-bc/ However, the most interesting thing about this story is the mainstream media's coverage of it as noted by DriveTeslaCanada:

In my observation, a majority of posters tend to have an unhealthy or overly critical view. They think Tesla is making serious blunders that they would not make if they were in his shoes. In other words, an overly critical view of Elon and Tesla that leads to lower investment gains then if they...

Holy cow! It sounds like there will be no demand problem for as far as the eye can see! Who woulda' thunk? o_O

I'm pretty sure the Model 3 single-handedly turned the shrinking sedan market into a growth market.

I guess that explains why the Model 3 is selling so poorly in Europe compared to much smaller EV's: The point so many are missing is that Tesla chooses the appropriate time to enter new market segments and the "hot hatch" is not a mainstream segment in Europe, even if it is much more popular...

A battery researcher at Dalhousie University battery lab discovered the polyethylene tape used in many li-ion cells degrades into compounds that increase the internal self-discharge of battery cells and this can be avoided simply by using polypropylene tape instead...

Oh, a premium small car. That will happen too but it's likely further away than a lower cost small car. Tesla's goal is not to cover as many market segments as possible, as soon as possible, they exist to carry out their mission in the optimum order, on a timeline that makes the most sense...

How high of a global market share do you think Tesla can reach without selling to people that need a car smaller than a VW Golf? They are at 2% global market share. I think they could easily double or triple that without even approaching the need to address that market segment. Tesla will do...

You missed my point. I'm not saying no one wants or needs a smaller car, or that it's only about a lower price, I'm saying that it's not necessary for Tesla to enter a lower profit margin market at this point in time. It will come in due time. I fully understand that Tesla's 4 models do not...

No, to grow from 2% of the market they need lower priced cars, they don't need to be smaller. That will happen, but smaller is not necessary to continue growing.

While I generally agree with most of your points above, the reason Tesla hasn't already rushed into small city cars is because their current sales of all models are only around 2% of global auto sales and city cars are low profit vehicles that will displace lower amounts of fossil fuels vs. cars...

Why would you assume that Tesla plans to reduce prices of the Model 3 by using "slight tweaks or software limiters"? That makes no sense, Tesla is on a mission to reduce the cost of EV's in fundamental ways by making the cars easier to manufacture and with lower assembly costs and lower parts...

I think people who think the cons outweigh the pros are thinking Tesla would open their entire Supercharger Network to other cars and lose control of their own network. But Tesla can only open the stalls it equips with CCS adapters and will retain full control over which stalls and stations are...

I hope so! I have a Ford F-150 and I'm not worried. Even if I wanted to keep it after I get a Cybertruck I would not worry about parts. There are so many of them on the road someone would meet the market needs. That's how capitalism works (if you are willing to let it work). People have such...

I think your analysis is overly dramatic and this is the same kind of thinking legacy auto has used for decades to justify government support for them and special tax considerations. It's the old "too big to fail" defense. Capitalism creates high standards of living and better lives for millions...

Opening the Supercharger Network will be a net positive for Tesla and for Tesla owners who are active road-trippers. The network is already the dominant N. American fast DC charging network and nothing will allow the network to expand and grow as quickly as opening it up to more EV's because the...