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  1. Z

    Supercharger congestion problem ideas.

    Tesla introduces fee for lazy owners who leave their cars at Supercharger stations
  2. Z

    My prediction of autonomous vehicles

    How about everyone banned from driving and everyone shares vehicles from a state provided pool. Each vehicle is the same color.
  3. Z

    Rumor: Hybrid Power Train

    Flywheel?
  4. Z

    When a driverless car can't handle the situation

    The point is that some situations require actual reasoning to make sense of complex situations rather than trivial tactical reactions such as those. Avoiding hitting something is brain dead AI, and can be taken for granted. Interpreting gestures, seeing atpyical pedestrian traffic or street...
  5. Z

    NHTSA sets 'Quiet Car' safety standard to protect pedestrians

    This idea seems like we're going backwards as a society. Tech should be less and less intrusive and distracting in our daily lives. I can think of only a few places where this would be potentially useful: at cross walks, in parking areas, and in residential areas where oblivious kids play in the...
  6. Z

    When a driverless car can't handle the situation

    Not that simple. The AI simply can't learn when context is not determined and cause-effect relationships can not be associated, That level of sophistication is way beyond where we'll be for many years to come! That's why "strategic" aspects of driving were left out of the autonomous driving...
  7. Z

    Model 3 immediate resale value

    That was my whole point it still stands. Simple supply and demand. Folks this is not that hard to understand.
  8. Z

    Model 3 immediate resale value

    Focus. The whole point is resale value in a market where they make as many as market demands?
  9. Z

    Model 3 immediate resale value

    What car with this production volume has ever gotten a 30% markup? Does not make sense.
  10. Z

    Has Tesla changed wording about full self driving capability?

    Absolutely not. "in almost all situations" means that the vast majority of time the car will be able to handle decision making. This is simply because the vast majority of time and distance travelled for trips made by all cars do not involve situations calling for a strategic level of decision...
  11. Z

    Model 3 immediate resale value

    No supply problem with a ridiculous amount planned for production. There will be some willing to pay a premium for earlier ownership, but with many available that premium goes down. 10% at most over MSRP for first 6 months, then below MSRP.
  12. Z

    Has Tesla changed wording about full self driving capability?

    The key is in the qualification of "Dynamic Driving Task" which does not cover many necessary decision making abilities.
  13. Z

    Can level 5 Autonomy be achieved with Hardware suite 2.0?

    The types of decision making, when confronted with unidentifiable situations, that would be required to make progress. That decision making is not considered part of the level 5 "dynamic driving task". For example, a human directing traffic, parking garage navigation, or entry to roadway...
  14. Z

    Has Tesla changed wording about full self driving capability?

    If you think about the sophistication of artificial intelligence required for a car to figure out appropriate action to take in all driving situations, the limitations agreed upon in the standard are not surprising. A level 5 car will drive better than most people, but only within the limited...
  15. Z

    Has Tesla changed wording about full self driving capability?

    SAE has carefully distinguished what qualifies as a "Dynamic Driving Task". Level 5 notably does not cover strategic aspects of driving which are trivial, common, and sometimes necessary for a person to handle. Nonetheless a manufacturer may offer some strategic capability - it just has nothing...
  16. Z

    Can level 5 Autonomy be achieved with Hardware suite 2.0?

    You might want to take a closer look at what they are defining as the "Dynamic Driving Task". They have intentionally separated the "intelligence" required to drive a car into tactical and strategic roles with the latter being outside of the scope of even level 5. This makes perfect sense from a...
  17. Z

    When a driverless car can't handle the situation

    of course the car would pull over if there was such a place to do so. However, in many cases the problem is recognizing that a road is under human traffic direction. This happens all the damn time for various reasons - events, weather, malfunctioning light, a broken down vehicle, construction...
  18. Z

    When a driverless car can't handle the situation

    You could take control remotely, but full sense of suroundings and feel for car behavior will be way too limited without a lot of additional gear installed. Prob need some VR setup with an external mic. Can't rely on that to work reliably over today's wireless networks. Also can't wait for a tow...
  19. Z

    When a driverless car can't handle the situation

    Of course there will be few situations it can't handle when compared to those it can. But for the ones it can't, it's potentially a huge problem right? You don't really need to even speculate about there being situations it can't handle, as those will be the ones requiring much more intelligence...
  20. Z

    When a driverless car can't handle the situation

    Being pulled over for a light? Be serious. You need to address the most serious problems first. The situations which call for immediate "rescue" need to be addressed first and quickly. When the car becomes a hazard, someone should be able to drive it to a better location. And not "remotely".
  21. Z

    Can level 5 Autonomy be achieved with Hardware suite 2.0?

    The problem will be not so much due to the car's inability to handle "difficult" situations, but rather not handling the situations that occur only 5-10% of the time, but nonetheless will always occur. The consequences of a car hampering traffic flow will be anywhere from a nuisance (can move...
  22. Z

    Can level 5 Autonomy be achieved with Hardware suite 2.0?

    I had a totally different conception of what a fully autonomous car should be capable of vs what the industry has already decided is sufficient. I now can easily see that Tesla can deliver a "Level 5" car in a couple of years.
  23. Z

    Can level 5 Autonomy be achieved with Hardware suite 2.0?

    $80 to get the full J3016 spec apparently. But if level 5 lacks the strategic routing and rerouting capability, how can it deal with reading a detour or road closed sign?
  24. Z

    Can level 5 Autonomy be achieved with Hardware suite 2.0?

    Tesla dictates what capability is deemed sufficient. For the consumer, the question will be is there a better alternative. If not, then what are you betting against? Being first to market with something a few years ahead of the competition gives them a monopoly. What would be the reason to "bet...
  25. Z

    Can level 5 Autonomy be achieved with Hardware suite 2.0?

    I think what you really mean is will there be a better alternative available within a certain time period after which you won't feel like you were screwed? There will always be better hardware required to improve a car's driving ability for the scope of "full autonomy". It's an evolution and all...
  26. Z

    Can level 5 Autonomy be achieved with Hardware suite 2.0?

    Right, by "better" they mean safer. But you can have a safer vehicle that doesn't result in injury as often, but will block traffic when even an inexperienced driver would not do so.
  27. Z

    Can level 5 Autonomy be achieved with Hardware suite 2.0?

    Agreed that it would have to give up and be rescued, but the rescue location could easily be in a location that's blocking the flow of traffic causing a huge problem. In that case, maybe the car should at unlock doors, put on a special hazard light and let any person move it out of the way...
  28. Z

    Can level 5 Autonomy be achieved with Hardware suite 2.0?

    What if that situation was along the route of a "summoned" vehicle?
  29. Z

    Autonomous - the regulatory and legal hurdles

    Mercedes, Volvo, and Google all said over a year ago that they would accept responsibility.
  30. Z

    Can level 5 Autonomy be achieved with Hardware suite 2.0?

    Here's one: if there is water on the road after/during a storm, can the car adequately gauge its depth?
  31. Z

    Can level 5 Autonomy be achieved with Hardware suite 2.0?

    May not necessarily be even "level 4", and he's also only "thinks" that it will be available in 2018. But that's their roadmap and the implication. I wonder how the car will find a numbered parking spot? Can it read numbers directly below it on the ground? Do you manually train it to park in...
  32. Z

    Can level 5 Autonomy be achieved with Hardware suite 2.0?

    L5 hasn't been defined yet, we don't know what limitations are acceptable until the public weighs in. That's a red herring. For example, you can avoid an accident by having a car needlessly block traffic. And that may be preferable. But it's a failed system as far as substituting for a human.
  33. Z

    Can level 5 Autonomy be achieved with Hardware suite 2.0?

    The levels are vaguely worded. People can and will accept 90% autonomous capability as being the same as "fully autonomous". The many incremental changes provided above that 90% will provide "enhanced" full autonomy, thereby making it seem a bonus.
  34. Z

    Can level 5 Autonomy be achieved with Hardware suite 2.0?

    Hopefully, no one in their right mind would be surprised by such an obvious necessity.
  35. Z

    Can level 5 Autonomy be achieved with Hardware suite 2.0?

    I wouldn't argue against the utility of "whitelisting" regions where or conditions when the car is most likely to function properly. But we can't also refer to such a system of caveats as being "fully autonomous". The industry will wind up needing to qualify what "fully autonomous" actually...
  36. Z

    Can level 5 Autonomy be achieved with Hardware suite 2.0?

    If the "infrastructure" needs to change to accommodate the shortcomings of a so-called "level 5" vehicle, then by definition the vehicle is not "level 5". Folks, it's really as simple as that. This is getting silly!
  37. Z

    My take on Tesla's current position in the industry.

    The vast majority of driving requires no advanced AI at all. What is "good enough" when a circumstance occurring maybe 10% of the time/distance, but nonetheless occurs, requires the car to make a decision when it simply cannot due to some design limitation? What do you think the consequences of...
  38. Z

    My take on Tesla's current position in the industry.

    Look, it is silly to say all tasks can handled by some the black-box neural net. Level 4 autonomy is the goal which has new requirements as they are identified and understood, and thus requires new design work and yes, new algorithms. It's questionable whether the existing collected data...
  39. Z

    My take on Tesla's current position in the industry.

    Not sure what you are arguing. There are inherent limitations in any given problem approach, regardless of your data set size. In other words, sure the number of miles driven improves the NN training but only within a limited scope determined from the start by how those NNs were used by the...
  40. Z

    My take on Tesla's current position in the industry.

    Providing sufficient driving data is important. But again the most important thing for industry leadership, as far as full autonomy, would be the actual capability of the car which is dependent on the functionality provided by algorithms.
  41. Z

    My take on Tesla's current position in the industry.

    Training data is helpful, but I'd argue the AI algorithms are the essential tech and what would ultimately differentiate the industry "leaders".
  42. Z

    My take on Tesla's current position in the industry.

    They are certainly leading the industry in rapidly deploying what driving assist tech they do have, which is great. But I don't see how Tesla can be ahead in autonomous driving AI, which is the most important component for practical full autonomy.
  43. Z

    Model 3 Deliveries via "Summoning"

    The first part can be addressed by historical precedent: how likely same or similar situation was handled w/o incident by people. What needs to change as far as people's behavior, signs, etc... Legislation to accommodate the autonomous vehicle limitations is going to come from social pressure...
  44. Z

    Model 3 Deliveries via "Summoning"

    How about the city of Rome, in general? Or even London. Good luck with that. Mobileye has it right on. In many circumstances, you'd need the car to inch forward or swerve occasionally, when merging or when negotiating cross traffic without aid of signals, to express intent to nearby drivers...
  45. Z

    Model 3 Deliveries via "Summoning"

    I wonder if there will be standardized tests for various possible driving conditions. The easy scenarios may constitute most driving conditions, but performing as well as a person in all cases is well beyond a few years.
  46. Z

    Elon Confirms 10/19 Announcement is Model 3 Part 2

    Why did that announcement need to be delayed?
  47. Z

    Elon Confirms 10/19 Announcement is Model 3 Part 2

    Watching live stream now
  48. Z

    Oct. 17 - Model 3 Reveal Pt. 2?

    Since the announcement was delayed in order to present a better demo, I'd expect to see a key feature of the demo to be something live and interactive.
  49. Z

    Deep Reinforcement Learning for Driving Policy