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I don't want to raise expectations, but I'm starting to see a very realistic possibility that Tesla posts Q4 deliveries far above my base case of 110k, possibly as high as 103k Model 3s and 20k S&X. Without any contribution from GF3. There are now many separate data points suggesting Model 3...

Grimes went to TeamLabs in Tokyo yesterday, presumably with Elon. Both TeamLabs Planets and Borderless are spectacular by the way, highly recommended

An 8k per week average pack production rate in Q4 aligns with Panasonic's chart showing 20% cell production growth. Assuming CleanTechnica's report is correct (and it appears to be backed up by Tesla's Q3 balance sheet inventory increase) then Tesla produced 79,837 packs for Fremont and 7,000...

Very hard to know what price Tesla could get it for. Tesla are definitely in the far stronger negotiating position. Maybe $2-3bn and then Panasonic would at least recoup its investment for a business that's likely valued at a negative valuation currently by its P/E multiple investor base. Maybe...

1: Maxwell tech covers <20% of the cell manufacturing production steps 2: I'm sure Tesla has internal solutions developed for the remaining steps, but I expect Panasonic has some steps that Tesla can't yet match for efficiency - so for these steps it would be better to buy Panasonic's tech. 3...

In Panasonic's investor day last Friday they appear to suggest Q4 GF1 cell production is up around 20% vs Q3. Looks promising for Q4 Model 3 production! Also, given Twitter reports Elon is in Japan, I think now would be a great time to buy Panasonic's GF1 business. It would far simplify rollout...

All Model 3s (SR+, AWD, P) are now sold out until February in all European markets.

As usual Tesla's only true competition is itself. Everybody is too slow copying GF1's 35GWh capacity, so Tesla moves ahead to build 2,000GWh annual capacity itself. I can't wait until battery day when we get more details of Tesla's TWh in-house battery production plan. I'm sure capex cost per...

So now Tesla is finished with product reveals for a while, it looks like Tesla has 10 new vehicle production lines to focus on bringing online in the near future. These production plans include estimates - we do not know full details of Tesla's plans. These dates are estimates for first vehicle...

Has anyone been keeping track of all the social media influencers/celebrities (and their follower counts) that have supported or ordered the CyberTruck? I'm sure I've seen at least 40 people with 50K-5+ million twitter followers saying they've put in orders. Also approval from Joe Rogan, Jack...

Any guesses on what these technologies will be? Seems likely: New cell chemistry New in-house cell design New module/pack design Dojo. New custom built chip designed for neural network training on supercomputers. FSD feature complete + rapidly reducing interventions. Possible: New next...

I think SpaceX foundry only makes Raptor parts for Starship currently. An Elon in-house stainless steel foundry was only a matter of time though. It's even more important to buy Nickel mines/production plants now too.

“The thing I am most impressed with is, what did you undesign?” Elon Musk How do you reduce manufacturing costs in the Stamping, Castings and Paint shops? Get rid of them. How do you reduce manufacturing costs in the Body Shop? Massively reduce welding requirements and reduce body shop size...

I really don't think they set out to build an armoured vehicle. They set out to re-design the car manufacturing process from the bottom up to save capex and COGs. It just so happened that the end result of folding stainless steel turned out to result in an armoured vehicle. And then they took...

"When Henry Ford made cheap, reliable cars, people said, 'Nah, what's wrong with a horse?' That was a huge bet he made, and it worked." - Elon Musk

Anyone think Semi could be moved on to this new straight edged stainless steel manufacturing platform? Semi customers will be even more focussed on cost of ownership and utility so the manufacturing cost savings from this new method could make even more sense than for Pickup. It would also...

How will a small community of 2k people accommodate a Tesla workforce of 5-10k people?

After more time for this to sink in, I'm growing more and more confident in my first impression that CyberTruck is Tesla's boldest move yet and has blown away all my expectations. CyberTruck is a paradigm shift in: Vehicle production processes Vehicle structural design Vehicle aesthetics...

After more time for this to sink in, I'm growing more and more confident in my first impression that CyberTruck is Tesla's boldest move yet and has blown away all my expectations. CyberTruck is a paradigm shift in: Vehicle production processes Vehicle structural design Vehicle aesthetics...

Where did you read 50k? The price points suggest they are going for very high volume.

To further elaborate. This is a complete rethink of how cars are made with the goal of making significant improvements to 1) Production cost, 2) Safety and 3) Functionality. Here Elon is making the bet that on average these three things will trump some people's desire for a generic looking...

6 months ago the consensus was that Pickup would be a Model S/X equivalent $90k+ car. Elon adjusted expectations that he was aiming for below $50k but few people believed him. Tesla just announced it will start at $40k, with better specs than Model Y for lower base price. How is some people's...

Do you think TSLAQ will still be preaching about panel gaps while pressurised CyberTrucks are driving on Mars and underwater? At some point maybe some will look back and think maybe they could have done something more productive with their lives than the 10k FUD tweets they composed in the same...

I guess CyberTruck is Elon’s hedge that he doesn’t manage to solve global warming in time. At least when we’re living in a futuristic war torn dystopia with half the cities underwater, we’ll still have an armoured CyberPunk truck that can drive the flooded streets in safety.

Actually I missed the VIEs impact from the above breakdown, but it is not a large cash flow driver (aside from non recourse debt repayment which doesn't impact change in net debt). VIEs cash flow impact is the sum of "Proceeds from investments by noncontrolling interests in subsidiaries"...

It is roughly: Free cash flow: $972m Solar purchases: -$98m M&A: -$57m Collateralised leases: -$518m Capital Leases: -$297m Stock options: +$243m Equity raised: +$848m Convert hedges purchased (net): -$302m. Issuance fees: -$42m Total debt increased $1.6bn to $12,475m while net debt decreased...

This is true, however, I assumed much of the building foundations for expansion are already in place at GF1. The same with utilities, road infrastructure, electricity supply etc. I think they also already have permits for significant footprint expansion given the current building still is only a...

Does anyone think there will be any comment on CyberTruck production location at the reveal? It would seem to make most sense to produce CyberTruck at the same location as Semi, because they can likely share a new US paint shop even if they are on completely different platforms. Given Semi is...

This probably all means a HUD (Heads Up Display) is coming. I'm not sure why, but it seems very likely.

Tesla configurator is now showing February delivery for both SR+ and LR AWD in Holland, Germany and Austria (and February for SR+ everywhere else). It looks like Tesla is mostly sold out of European production allocation half way through the quarter despite the increased shipments. It also...

Sorry there is so much wrong or completely missing the point here that I'm sceptical it is just misunderstanding. Among your various claims you are honestly trying to claim E-tron has better powertrain tech than Model X because the only relevant data point is base $ price of the car (and not...

The point is the stability of the standalone chemistry is irrelevant if the BMS/cell/pack designs mean it poses no meaningful fire risk in the actual car. NCA isn’t inherently less stable than NMC. NCA is normally less stable than NMC principally because NCA normally has higher Nickel content...

Not all NCA and NMC are created equal. Tesla has done a lot of work to limit the instability of its chemistry. Further to this, Tesla's choice of the smaller canned cylindrical format helps limit instability. The very precise BMS temperature management reduces the risks further. In addition to...

How are service centers full of engine mechanics valuable to an EV company? You need battery and motor experts and electrical engineering expertise. This a completely different skillset and it is not going to be easy to hire new staff with these skills. It only makes sense to hire these new...

I think Suminoe Japan was initially at 8/8.5GWh, but i think they were producing at a 9GWh rate in 4Q18. Simon Moores at Benchmark Minerals stated Suminoe capacity at 11GWh last year and Benchmark are one of the most reliable sources in the battery industry. I don't think that 11GWh would...

From 4Q18 ASP/margins it looked like Tesla had got mix close to 50:50. I'm not sure i remember seeing 80k/year guidance recently? The disclosure in the 3Q19 report is that Model S&X production capacity is currently at 90k per year. This would have to account for physical supply and equipment...

If they were producing 100k per year at 50:50 75kWh vs 100kWh packs, their current capacity with just 100kWh packs is 87.5k per year. Presumably they have enough cell capacity to make 90k packs per year otherwise they lied about this capacity in a public filings.

The empty cell was purchased by Dahn's group, but likely built to Dahn's specification, and the choice of electrolyte additives added by Dahn was the core discovery in Dahn's latest paper. Tesla and Dahn did not invent single crystal (micrometer size scale) NMC 532 cathodes but Dahn's group has...

I presume this "instant profit" is from valuing the 3-4 ZEV credits per car at their max fine value of $5k each - so $15-20k per car. I like the Mach-E performance specs and price and I'm glad Ford looks to be taking EVs more seriously than most other ICE OEMs, but the pack size/efficiency is...

I presumed the battery pack stockpile was in the raw materials line, I'm not sure what else would cause such a large increase and I don't see how Tesla would keep Work in Progress flat QoQ while building up a battery pack stockpile within this line item. Do you just not believe they stockpiled...

It is not meaningful to discuss cell chemistry safety without discussing how the cell design and Battery Management System deals with this. The three key advantages of Tesla's cell strategy are 1) ability to use stripped back simplified cylindrical cells, 2) ability to safely use the in...

Carsonight has actually stated that Tesla has a private aspirational goal (read impossible) of 15k packs per week at GF1 before expansion. I can't see this being possible this year though and there is no way Fremont could currently produce anywhere close to this many Model 3s per week. If the...

I hope Tesla has maintained flexibility to add further OEMs to their emission pool at short notice (or saved European car sales to add to a different pool) . By the end of 2020 Daimler are going to realise their EV sales are nowhere near enough to get them out of their huge EU emissions black hole.

Yes the odds of Tesla Semi production at Fremont seem extremely low. Tesla says Semi will be in production by late 2020. Hence a new location. Very likely at GF1 as it will be very hard to build anywhere else so quickly. I guess Lathrop is possible too. Pickup is less clear, there is a higher...

Just a small observation on “no longer a growth company” Tesla. Two months ago Tesla were producing vehicles at just 1 factory. In 18 months time they aim to be producing vehicles at 4 factories. This is not just a huge growth in capacity, revenue and gross profit. It is a huge amount more...

She persuaded her parents to buy an EV but to only use it when necessary. Given Tesla’s market share I would presume they own a Tesla, though I’m not sure I’ve seen it reported specifically.

I like the idea of a Quebec factory. I presume the rational would be access to Nickel and Lithium resources. This would be most important if Tesla is going to in-house cathode powder production as well as cell production. The Nickel Sulphate and Lithium Hydroxide cathode powder feedstock both...

The designs will all be in-house and i'm sure they're largely finished with the design aside from slight site specific adjustments. I can see environmental impact being a hold up but I'm sure Elon will set people working at Tesla speed. Presumably a lot of work has already been done by the local...

1H21 GF4 production target confirmed.

Just a reminder of the GF3 timeline below. I guess GF4 now is at a stage equivalent to somewhere between July and October 2018. So if Tesla really matches the timeline we could even get GF4 production by the end of 2020. This seems very unlikely though, i'm sure red tape will be harder to remove...