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Currently at 202 days here and 10 days in June Jail. 🤦‍♂️

Hate to make already frustrating matters worse but...with the distribution being almost certainly right tailed the mean is higher than 212. Our 200+ days to wait are probably less outlier than we want to believe. 😞

Well...aren't all observations in this thread simply anecdotes? We COULD determine some sense of pattern or schedule through the data except that the distribution is far from normal. Every interruption of the queue for an MYP or FSD order represents an outlier that clouds any insight for MYLR...

If only that were a large enough sample size to glean any hypotheses from. Though I totally respect the work put into it.

I would agree, the average time to VIN has definitely slipped to at least 7 months if not 8.

Any jailbirds out yet? Officially 9 days of June here. Not expecting an update until at least Tuesday and terrified of what it will say. 😬

So for people who have been without a car while this insanity continues. Realize this: There ARE other options out there. I spoke with Hyundai today and they actively prohibited people from ordering online to avoid the same chaos that Tesla has created (this is the difference between a company...

I think the correct statement is *some* deliveries are close to the original EDD. And I definitely wouldn't try assuming which deliveries those are. Some seem to get their car close to that, others seem to have to wait weeks to months after. Some have ordered base cars with no options, some...

Maybe things were different before but adding options seems to have done absolutely nothing past August/September 2021. The only thing they seem to care about is pushing out MYP and FSD earlier. If ordering today I'd say the best you can do is order what is assumed to be the most commonly...

Ordered on 10/23 and with white interior. Was originally March.

MSMs DO still exist! 🤣

Damn...I...am...sorry. You've had it rough.

Don't see a lot of Ys with enough options to match an MYP's price going out either...

This exactly. Buy a loaded Model S or X, get it in weeks, buy FSD, get it in weeks, buy a performance model, get it in weeks to months. Buy anything else? Tesla: "Go f yourself."

LOL yeah Tesla has a parts shortage until you buy FSD or one of their most expensive models. 🤣

Their market share has already dropped from 79% to 66%. I don't think the demand will stay the same at all. Especially if the media ever gets ahold of the fact that March orders with FSD or MYP have already gotten VINs while hundreds of thousands of people from last year are still waiting.

So true. At some point all of this is gonna lead people to go elsewhere. In fact, Tesla's market share for EVs has already dropped as other makers ramp up. The continued line cutting for more expensive models and horrifying customer service is going to bite them sooner rather than later too.

How far past?

Officially at a week of June Jail. Not envisioning this ending in a VIN. 🤦‍♂️

June Jail is actually when your EDD updates to simply "June". At least you still have a date range.

Has anyone else accumulated a 7 day window, 2 - 14 day windows and June Jail? Has anyone had more than three 14 day or less windows? I'm just wondering if I should buy New York Avenue, Tennessee Avenue and St. James Place so I can have better luck actually landing a VIN? 🤣

Yes it is June Jail. Some prophesize it meaning the arrival of a VIN. For others it comes and goes, being replaced with yet another date range. Most seem to agree that it is a "placeholder" while something is being recalculated but what that something is and what the calculation is nobody knows...

Great question. I'm starting to think Tesla is part of the simulation. 🤣

Welcome to the start of a new week of nonsense. Strap in for the latest roller coaster ride y'all. Hope everyone copes as best they can.

Was hoping to see raining VINs again this weekend like a couple weeks ago. Maybe tomorrow? 🤞

Still in jail. Day 5. Starting to suspect a VIN is not imminent. Even the VINs that were assigned have had delivery pushed til June so guessing unless you're on the West coast it's gonna be August for us.

HAVE they issued any?

Guessing we need to settle in for the long haul with all this part shortage talk. I'd love to get a Sunday update but also preparing for it to be updated to sometime in Q3. 😐

A lot of weirdness seems to have come up in the past month. Were people getting to their EDD window before getting pushed before? September Jail is the new "it" place to be for many but there still a handful of June Jails. Have made it a habit to never assume anything means anything but...

We all have different colors though. Don't they batch in singular colors? I'm wondering if they've held VIN assignment for this part shortage...

Still in jail as of this morning. Hoping something happens for some of us today.

Congrats. Party on indeed and be excellent to each other.

So how much evidence has amassed that actually points to jail meaning something?

Be thankful you both have more than one car. Over here living like it's the 1930s...

Anybody watch the simulation documentary (A Glitch In The Matrix) on Netflix? It's starting to feel like Teslas are a part of the simulation. They are all over the road and stories abound about deliveries yet it never comes. Hmm. How many of you on the forum have ever brought your groceries...

Austin 😕

Based on SA experience I propose Tesla change their slogan...so many choices...

I'm in June Jail but I'll join!

BNSF has rails from Denver to Austin and to Chicago. Hopefully Denver's not the only stop. Railroad tracking...this is what it's come to y'all. 🤣

Thanks everyone for the constructive feedback if you gave it. You know who you are. I'm still not sure but am going to wait until I have time to go dealership hopping at the least.

Thank you for a very thoughtful response. Weighing your points with sincerity. Not sure why every time a logical decision to forgo buying this car turns into a weird "you didn't want a Tesla" or "you can't afford a Tesla". Making an informed financial decision and purchase decision is really...

And the fanboy white knighting starts. I have several other expenses contributing to this potential decision. The act of buying a Tesla doesn't exist in a vacuum. Rising taxes, purchasing a home, other loans, etc. It's not like this has been an experience that feels worth the money in any way...

So with the Fed raising interest rates and the continued delays it's starting to feel like a good time to just give up on the idea of owning a Tesla. It was a fun idea to be on the relative forefront of an automotive revolution. The technology is obviously tempting but it just doesn't seem...

Can you clarify this a little more? The website doesn't have an option for paying via ACH? Or the site you are picking the car up from doesn't accept payment? That I would believe with Texas dealer laws. I was under the impression that you could do the down payment (if financing) on the...

Well as expected EDD changed yet again. But now I'm just placed in June 2022 jail like others. Hoping y'all are right about it being a sign of VIN but I don't know what to believe anymore.

Not being sensitive. I really don't think about you at all. You made a statement that isn't blanket true and I called you out on it. Get over it dude.

Petty much? It's not an opinion. Just as many 7, 10 and 14 day windows have come and gone as have resulted in VINs. Take a look around...

I'm thinking the VIN handouts for anything but CA and maybe OR orders are done for the quarter if history is anything to go by. Maybe we'll get one more week, we'll see.

Patently false. We had a 7 day window in Feb for a March delivery. Have had that taken from us and 2 14 day windows since. Please don't spread misinformation. People are going thru enough as it is.

How TF are these bone stock cars getting VINs and EDD before people who put $3k-$7k in upgrades??? I would love my $5k back Tesla...or just my friggin car! WTF???