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Hey all, long time no see - just an FYI that I've had multiple Jan 2024 BPS short legs assigned in the last week. The latest were 533.33's yesterday after hours. I'm going to exercise the 516.67 long legs on Monday morning since the spread is bigger than the extrinsic value lol. If you have that...

We popped back into the channel and just retested the bottom line. If we close above 864 that'll be great - means the bull trend is intact

Yes, exactly! It's the same for me haha, I'm a lot more impulsive with my trading than the trades I help my partner place or the ones I place in my IRA. When TSLA rocketed to 1200 I had her stop selling weeklies because I assumed we'd tank back to the bottom of the channel soon - whereas I kept...

I just had an idea and can’t believe I didn’t do it before. I’m just going to open another account. Investing (main account): 90% of my money - leaps, shares, safe BPS with low margin Trading: Cash secured higher return BPS for compounding Reasoning: - Caps risk - Keeps things clean /...

This morning looks like capitulation to me. We broke out through the bottom of the declining channel and reversed hard. 700 support goes pretty far back - looks strong. Buy the news makes sense with how much we sold off ahead of this. I missed the dip but just re-entered with some 680/670's for...

Tbh it looks like we’re in a full bear trend now that the channel, 200d, and previous low were taken out. I’m looking at the 720 level (bottom of declining channel) if we don’t bounce here, but there are a lot of horizontal resistances you can draw from last year. It’s not as clear cut as when...

Very interesting bounce here - could be a double bottom / bear trap. I want to see us get back above the 200 day and back in the channel though

Aaand the conversion to leaps spreads is done 🎉 I chose 1300/1600 for better volume. Breakeven is 1370 and full recovery at 1600 by Jan 19th 2024. Tax funding secured. Still have some other positions and stock as well. Feels good. Now time to sit back and watch with some popcorn. Let's hope...

Yeah pe compression is the big risk. But since theta decay is so low, as long as we’re at least flat in 1 year I’ll be able to roll out another year without paying too much. ATM leap call spreads are a super viable strategy IMO. You can beat returns from stock pretty easily. The reason I’m...

So I've decided to make a pretty drastic change to my account since after rolling things for months, converting to IC's, adding new BPS, rolling those, and trading, I now have a pretty messy spiderweb of positions. Going nuclear Tomorrow I'm going to close all positions including stock. With...

Finally some good news: "Putin and Macron agree to try to secure ceasefire in eastern Ukraine and urgent summit" "The two leaders spoke on the phone for 105 minutes, and the outcome, broadly confirmed by the Kremlin, suggests Russia might be willing to step back from the brink of a full...

I think we'll still close above 856, but I rolled my 850's to next week just in case. But yeah I don't like seeing it below the channel 😬

Taking a look at high growth stocks across the board, it looks like the correction is over. Some stocks were in a bubble. Tesla was in a bit of a bubble too - the pop to 1200 on not much news wasn’t really warranted. But across the board look at where things are sitting - Tesla back at the...

We've got decent support at 895, some support at 880, and big support in the 850-875 range for this week. I sold some 850/840's for tomorrow after closing them out yesterday and will add more if we test 875. Seems like increased fears of a Russia invasion today 🤔

Fed minutes were released - apparently, the market likes em 👌

This is also good to factor in when deciding whether to allocate money to cash-secured puts vs Leaps or shares. Multiply the weekly gains by .65 (roughly the difference between 50% and 20% tax rates on your gain) Similarly, if a goal is effective margin use, factor in the margin your broker...

Haha, yeah it's Tradingview. Just edited my post to include it

I'm trying out a new charting site (Tradingview) that allows me to be more accurate w/ the lines. (Yahoo finance likes to shift the lines around randomly 🤦‍♂️) And it looks like the channel is holding up better than I thought. Nice. I don't know if it'll happen but a close above 905 would be...

Good article about the US strategy regarding Ukraine. TLDR is we’re releasing more information than usual to intentionally create an international response and disrupt Russia’s strategy. This makes me think that the impact to markets will be a very short-lived dip. Fear being created on purpose...

Tbh I think filling the gap, and TA in general, is more of a self fulfilling prophecy because humans try to make sense out of randomness. If enough people hold off on buying because they’re waiting for the gap to get filled, it can tip the odds. I’m not sure what the original reason for it was...

We closed the gap, created the second shoulder, and poked out of the channel a bit. My best guess is this is the bottom. Not placing any bets though since I'm overextended already.

I wonder how bad of an idea it would be to convert my March spreads to Iron Flys (1000 midpoint) and use the proceeds to sell BPS for next week at 860/850 for around 45% RoC... It's under the trendline, under the 883 resistance... Trying my best to sit on my hands and do nothing, but this looks...

Closed some more IC call legs just now for decent profit since 905 is resistance. I'm expecting a recovery, but if we decide to test 870 I'll close some more

Closed some IC call legs this morning for some beer money - I had sold 1020/1010/840/830 on Monday but pretty quickly regretted the call strikes. Happy to be able to close those out today. I'm feeling pretty bullish with the price action this last week and the reaction to today's CPI numbers...

Tryna read some tea leaves here - seems like we're heading towards 940 for the next few days, and then either hug the bottom of the channel (860-960) or continue upwards (960-1010). I sold a couple call spreads yesterday and bought back a few put spreads. Just closed the calls and re-sold the...

The channel has been tested many times, so I think it’s the more reliable thing to look at and the intraday dip below is more irrational capitulation than a breakout. But if we were to close below for multiple days or macro got much worse I’d re-assess it. The other thing is Tesla is growing...

So I could be wrong with this prediction (3rd blue line), but look at the similarities to the last two big selloffs. TSLA rallies away from the channel, and then drops right back in, where it then grinds higher in the lower portion of the channel until the next breakout. Macros are worse than...

Wow, wasn't expecting to see green today but this is great. Kindof looks like we're forming an inverted head n shoulders, and if we close above 928 we have an engulfing candle. Also, yesterday I noticed a lot of shorts & FUD on Twitter. Contrarian indicator? lol

One thing to note- Diagonals and calendars gain if IV goes up, lose if IV goes down. You can throw it in optionsprofitcalculator and tweak the IV Change setting to see how it reacts

Nasdaq futures up over 1%, S&P only .5%. Looks like more rotation back into growth. Tomorrow should be fun 👌

Lol, sales down 15% while the stock is up 5%, and up 60% over 2 years. And this is only with Tesla making up around 2% market share. Should be interesting to see how legacy does now that Tesla’s 50% growth starts eating bigger and bigger chunks of their business. 2.2% in 2021, then 3.3, 4.95...

Yesterday I sold some far otm CC’s on strength Today I closed a few call spread legs of an April IC during the morning dip and sold a few 1100/1110/850/840 for the 11th. Still taking it easy while I wait for my rolled spreads to recover, and trying my best to be disciplined and play both...

Same. That's by far the worst part for me. Everyone, promise to set aside your tax money from your gains as soon as you get it lol.

Tbh I pay more attention to price levels than volume, but yeah the high volume on both Friday and today is good to see. The main things I’m looking at are the trend line / channel, pennant, similarities to last May, and macro sentiment. I’m thinking we’re going to bounce around within the...

We're not out of the woods yet - hitting resistance right here. But I think 850 is locked in as the floor now that we're back in the channel. I converted a few of my rolled put spreads to IC's today. I'll convert more if we test the medium-term downwards trendline at 1020ish, and will close some...

If I get out of this with less than a 10% hit, I'd consider that a good price for the lessons learned TBH

Nah I’m not making this trade right now haha, all of my buying power is tied up in rolled spreads. But I’m thinking for the future, doing something like this on 12.5% of my total account rather than like weeklies on 50%+ will be a lot safer for the long term. I don’t mind rolling, but where I...

Yeah, I would close both legs it if it hits the calendar’s strike price, otherwise I’d let the short leg expire and keep opening a new short leg each week. So if the SP stays above, you get 4 weeks of short puts backed by the long leg. It probably won’t fully pay for the long leg, especially if...

Yep! The credit spread would be something like this: TSLA Put Spread calculator Paired with a calendar spread hedge like this: TSLA Calendar Spread calculator

I’ve been thinking about safe strategies for put spreads, and I’m starting to realize further OTM weeklies isn’t the answer. Once you’re so far OTM that your return is less than 5%, you’re still making more money than stock, but with massive risk (95%) in a big downturn. And with such low RoC...

Some thoughts on earnings & Tesla's future: Conference call: Initially, the focus on Optimus and FSD made me uneasy because it sounded like Elon was putting a lot of eggs in one basket with his reply to the analyst regarding FSD unlocking demand. But after thinking about it, it seems more...

Some thoughts on earnings & Tesla's future: Conference call: Initially, the focus on Optimus and FSD made me uneasy because it sounded like Elon was putting a lot of eggs in one basket with his reply to the analyst regarding FSD unlocking demand. But after thinking about it, it seems more...

If we close above 856 (getting back into the channel after touching 200DMA) I think there's a chance that the bottom is in. 🤞

Something I read on twitter made me think: There are 3 possible reasons for the earnings reaction (in terms of what analysts heard) - No new models in 2022 - Lingering supply chain issues - Focus shifting away from EV Based on all EV stocks selling off in tandem with TSLA I think the biggest...

We touched the trendline. Just replaced my AAPL position and some TSLA shares w/ Jan 2024 1500/1950 leaps spreads

One of the best opportunities I've seen in a while 🤯 . If you believe the channel, 850-860 ish is the floor.

Earnings was solid, I think the reduction in P/E will help put a floor in, but I don’t see this rocketing back to 1200 in the next few weeks. Hoping for a slow and steady climb now that we’re back in the channel. My game plan I think will be to sell safe put spreads under the channel, and use...

I like these words I’m hearing 🚀

You should be able to close both legs in one order. It could be the price - I start at the mid price and if it doesn’t fill in a few seconds I bump the price up a few cents at a time until it fills. Sometimes on expiration day if the spread worth like .02 it gets hard to fill because of low...

Feb 25 and beyond have much lower IV, so you could roll (same / similar strikes) to one of those expirations before the crush happens If you have a lot of buying power, rolling down to OTM for this week or next week would also make use of the high IV One approach I sometimes use is to roll my...