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This trendline is only 4 years old, is it any better?

hmm, my biggest account is Current 401k is similar Roth as well not counting my bitcoin, but tossing in my AMD stock in the fully taxable account I guess I'm at a similar ratio as you, but it's a present cash value comparison and a moderate uptick for TSLA would move it up to 99% of my...

There was a time when basic Auto Pilot cost extra. For example in 2019 it was $3,000 but now it is free, that isn't because FSD price is going to zero, that's because FSD is building on top of the existing layers, to new capabilities. EAP was until very recently a layer between AP and FSD with...

Well unless 12.4 comes out before May 6th I'm going to drop out of the FSD cool kids club and take other software update path. If this or another similar thread says it's worth it I might pay for FSD some day down the road but for now it's free or no FSD for me. Enough so that I'm willing to...

Similar here, much smaller town, shorter turn lane correct behavior for the left turn is to stay left of the gore, but as it approaches the FSD waffles between going left of it or right of it with a lunge to the right at the point so I disengage to get in the left turn lane before it's so...

Not the entire fleet, the new features in the UI require a Ryzen CPU. So those of us with cars older than 2022 won't see the new pretty UI and won't get some of the new 14.x features.

That's just begging to be an Urban set on a Stargate episode/movie one of these days. Very minor CGI to make it look like future earth or a city on another planet. Heck even non stargate SF franchises could make use of that with minor variations on a theme.

"Human Reaction Time in Emergency Situations October 1, 2021 Reaction Time For Simple Tasks: Reaction time is defined simply as the time between a stimulus and a response. Human reaction time is sometimes quoted as a constant number: 0.2 seconds. While 0.2 seconds may be the average measured...

I have 12.3.3 and I've never gotten a software update on the car since I bought it. Bank A 2.17 GB Bank B 1.82 GB 2018 Model 3 LR AWD

I've had that speed limit 5 mph bug in v12.3.3 so Chuck is wrong about it not being there. both 12.3.3 and 12.3.4 can randomly pick 5 mph as the speed limit and it will stay wrong in sections until you park and start over. I had it wrong in my entire neighborhood on 3 different streets, as...

I have a 3 ton HP so all I want is the cheapest Powerwall that can support my heat pump. I don't give a darn about days of coverage, if it can last through a KUB outage of several hours I can handle any down time on a multiday outage (like if the PV + PW can cover daylight plus a few hours I'm...

The majority of the cost is setting up new servers (buying chips, installing in racks, etc), once they finish scaling to the desired size the ongoing costs drop quite a bit. On top of that the servers can be repurposed for the humanoid robot training if FSD becomes a solved problem moving costs...

If they knew what they were talking about they'd harp on the fact that EAP/FSD isn't working on the delivered vehicles. That software issue makes them sound like prototypes, the delivery dates on actual hardware are a silly point to focus on.

How many free FSD trials have there been? How many free FSD trials between now and robotaxi day (Aug 2024) Note: I want all the free trial months they'll give me, but they haven't got me putting down $12,000 yet.

It's like you don't understand how a conversation works. Think of a party Person A: I like food, this party has OK food. Person B: I make food, I can make better food. Person C: Person A didn't say anything about making food you fool. Don't be person C. I did explain that I understood the...

That dude doesn't know what he is talking about. He said rust on a disc makes the brakes stop working. Reality is that rusty discs grab better than smooth ones. Your brakes don't fail to work, they work better with rust on them.

I don't see them doing robotaxis with drum brakes, it requires more maintenance per mile (the assuming being robotaxis will do hundreds of thousands if not millions of miles). I don't see any point in talking about literally no physical brakes, I just joined in to mention that the majority of...

You don't get rid of brakes completely but you get rid of quite a bit of brake weight. Look at the crazy big brake rotor on a Model S Plaid and the crazy big calipers and the pads even. Now compare those to a Toyota Tercel or a Nissan Sentra or the like. If you are designing the car for a...

Did another reboot, inspected the cameras all looks good. Went back to the same road and tried again. This time acceleration was much different. Strong but even acceleration from the stop to the speed limit. Then it failed to make a left turn at a light. I'll try more later

1. The software is 2024.3.10 with FSD Supervised 12.3.3. I'm sure that was installed by the service center as prep for delivery. I don't know if the prior owner paid for the upgrade, I know I didn't pay for the upgrade. 3. I did double scroll wheel reset yesterday when I found a bug in the trip...

OK, put more air in the tires this morning and took her out for a spin. Cameras went from 99% to 98% overnight (regressed while asleep) but made it to 100% while I was driving. Eventually I got to a side street, pulled into a marked space at the curb, put her in park and enabled Supervised...

positive spin a Tesla involved in an accident for once https://interestingengineering.com/culture/tesla-model-y-saves-driver-in-shocking-crane-collapse

Took delivery today and got a used 2018 with 12.3.3. The car was $24,600 before tax credit and the tax credit has a cap at $25,000. I couldn't get permanent FSD and still get the $4,000 instant credit. The car was delivered with FSD 12.3.3 installed. I don't know if the prior owner paid for...

The car was $24,600 before tax credit and the tax credit has a cap at $25,000. I couldn't get FSD and still get the $4,000 instant credit. The car was delivered with FSD 12.3.3 installed. I don't know if the prior owner paid for the FSD computer upgrade or if Tesla did it between owners...

I'm literally picking up a 2018 Model 3 today. I don't know if the FSD hardware has been upgraded or not. I'll be in one of the legacy camps in a couple of hours, and I'm not even sure which subgroup. That doesn't change the shape of the curve to come.

Change your though process slightly and you'll see that doesn't matter. production has been on a exponential curve. Just assume that all new cars sold after robotaxi goes live become robotaxi and zero existing cars become robotaxi and you still get a curve like he shows. Assume every HW 2.5...

OK, confirmed, poor label on the slide. See assumption #5 The assumptions: 1) Tesla sells their vehicles at cost and only makes money from FSD software subscriptions and Robotaxi revenue. 2) Tesla has sold a cumulative 4.9 million vehicles as of 2023 Q2 and will sell a cumulative 130...

I thought he meant 25% of the take is the rate Tesla would get, poor shortening to put it on the slide as "take rate". As in if they charge $1 a mile to the passenger, Tesla gets 25 cents per mile. or if they charge 30 cents a mile Tesla gets 7.5 cents per mile. Not as in 25% of the Tesla's...

This reveal is still 4 months and 3 days away. And that will still be less than 6 months every day between now and August 8th 2024.

The last time I checked 70-31=39 not 70. So the corrected statement if you aren't trying to mislead could be One particular tracker shows a drop from 70% consideration of buying a Tesla at the end of 2022, down to 31% consideration in Feb 2024. or One particular tracker shows a drop of 39%...

Are we talking about Mobile Eye cars or just HW 2.x cars that didn't get HW 3 yet or is there a group of HW3 cars with an orphaned branch?

Oh and truth vs fiction vs simulation my reservation number has nothing but 1 2 3 4 and 5 in it, very close to looking like someone made up a reservation number on a lark.

OK, years ago I expected TSLA to beat the Stephenson indicator (not smoothly but I was expecting progress). To date I haven't sold a single share, and I've avoided buying Tesla's with money I could put into TSLA. I've finally done it and put ~$21k into a 2018 Model 3 Long Range AWD. Still...

So I'm still looking for a used Tesla to replace the totaled car. But let me give some color on FSD / EAP you may not have seen if you aren't shopping. I can find used cars with FSD, with EAP, and without either. On the cars without there is no option during the online purchasing to add EAP or...

Cybertruck 1, Nissan 0 At least I'm assuming the Tesla will be repaired and stay no the road and the Nissan is totaled. Happened today (Sunday) in Florida around 3pm. CT needs new tires and multiple trim pieces, maybe just leave the stainless steel alone after that? Can't seem to paste images...

Chuck Cook got his Dual Motor Foundation Cybertruck yesterday (the 22nd) in Florida because someone declined their order. He only got notified of the vehicle on the 20th and that's in southern FL so they must be shipping them around pretty far.

only a couple of percent of their gas stations, but the transition is happening.

Wheel load rating requirements are determined by dividing the vehicles heaviest gross axle weight rating by 2 It isn't right to do math of the whole car / 4. You can check your car with 19" or 20" wheels and see what the door jamb label says, note the number we want is the GAWR RR for both 19"...

It's not an issue for the people that drive around with minimal load. It is an issue for those that haul cinder blocks in the hatch or haul trailers full of stuff or do the equivalent of packing the car inside and on top with people/cargo. Curb Weight* Long Range Battery, Dual Motor: 4,416 lbs...

So you may have seen that I'm in the process of replacing a car. Doing research I got information that the $4000 used ev credit was NOT point of sale (not an instant credit) for Tesla (delivery locations weren't going through the online process to do the instant rebate). Today that changed...

the person that posted the URL left 2 characters off the end, it's html not ht.

I don't have a solid source for EV numbers so take this one with a giant lump of salt. I have no clue how accurate the green portion of the bars are and on top of that I'm guessing on future market growth. Wild shot in the dark of EV 50/50 happening in 2026 just by eyeballing the slope as I...

OK, 2023 OICA numbers have been published, still below the 2017 peak. 2017 73,456,531 2023 67,133,570

That's the whole point of using a service like keysavvy. They do the paperwork and send it to the IRS for you. Which means if you use them they are going to be getting your SSN and VIN to put on that paperwork (even if it's all electronic).

TIL, apparently somewhere in the last few years (I checked and in 2020 I couldn't send BTC to them) Robinhood started accepting incoming bitcoin so I can now just send BTC to robinhood, then send it to my checking from there without dealing with an overseas bitcoin exchange or bitpay debit card...

there are some companies that facilitate the transaction (for a fee) to make sure it qualifies. keysavvy.com, for example, charges $160, but unlocks the $4k tax credit by being the dealer between the two of you. https://www.keysavvy.com/pay-private-seller/ev

Yeah, but is it 3 laws safe? ;)

If you plan on keeping the car for more than a decade don't charge over 75% SOC ever when doing daily charging. Ignore that rule on infrequent trips like a vacation or a special errand that isn't part of your weekly routine. Charge to 100% infrequently just to let the BMS figure out what full...

As mentioned in another thread, I'm replacing a car that was damaged in an accident. If Tesla would accept my BTC with fees for the conversion below 3% I'd buy a Tesla car right now. I'd pay cash for part and use the BTC for the remaining amount, something like 50/50 or similar just to hedge my...