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  1. scaesare

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I suspect that over time, comparing your EV to a Tesla, and the charging experience specifically, will overall help sales. But, as the other posts mention, if it helps the mission, then it's net gain... and the greater adoption/acceptance of EV's will also be good for Tesla... a rising tide...
  2. scaesare

    SpaceX Starship - IFT-4 - Starbase TX - Pre-Launch Preparations Thread

    Weird. Nothing jumped out at me in my settings. I do NOT have my C/Twitter account associated with my account here, but that seems to only be for login. Dunno.
  3. scaesare

    SpaceX Starship - IFT-4 - Starbase TX - Pre-Launch Preparations Thread

    Forgot to post by screenshot of what I see in the post above... and I've had a page up for several minutes and no new data arrives (maybe I'll dig thru my site settings...): Kinda feel like they are on overtime trying to work with the FAA for mishaps... late May would be awesome.
  4. scaesare

    Wiki Super Heavy/Starship - General Development Discussion

    I wonder if Tom is a tad wistful:
  5. scaesare

    SpaceX Starship - IFT-3 - Starbase TX - Launch Thread and Post Launch Discussion

    I guess we could calculate what 1/2λ would be and figure out the degree of engine stagger would need to be.. but yeah, they aren't gonna do that.
  6. scaesare

    SpaceX Starship - IFT-3 - Starbase TX - Launch Thread and Post Launch Discussion

    Hard to completely make out, but it does look like there's a notch on the heads, but they are a bit spherical shaped on the bottom also:
  7. scaesare

    SpaceX Starship - IFT-3 - Starbase TX - Launch Thread and Post Launch Discussion

    If the engines were staggered, they'd still all be producing shockwaves thought, right? Are you just thinking that they wouldn't be additive and therefore less impactful to the surroundings? Couple shots of tiles recovered after the flight (presumably from IFT-3): Still at a loss for how...
  8. scaesare

    Waymo

    Not suggesting that they are necessarily constrained (well they are, because compute not infinite, and they do have paying customers), just wondering if we had a ballpark of what was thrown at it... but sounds like nobody outside Waymo really knows. Thanks.
  9. scaesare

    Waymo

    Sure, but what do they dedicate to it for a training session?... that infrastructure is shared amongst paying customers...
  10. scaesare

    SpaceX Starship - IFT-4 - Starbase TX - Pre-Launch Preparations Thread

    Hmm, I do, and am logged in. This is what I see for what @Buckminster posted. (and apologies if for whatever reason I'm the one not seeing context, when you are @Buckminster ...)
  11. scaesare

    Waymo

    So.. long thread, but was pointed here when I asked these questions: Any pointers to specific post/answers appreciated, as reading 189 pages might take a while :)
  12. scaesare

    SpaceX Starship - IFT-3 - Starbase TX - Launch Thread and Post Launch Discussion

    Also, an interesting thought: the Starship rolling/instability may have started with the prop transfer test, as significant mass within the ship changed locations at that point...
  13. scaesare

    SpaceX Starship - IFT-3 - Starbase TX - Launch Thread and Post Launch Discussion

    Somebody on NSF did count of missing tiles on a frame of video: Looks like 8 he could see... feels like less than previous flights...
  14. scaesare

    SpaceX Starship - IFT-3 - Starbase TX - Launch Thread and Post Launch Discussion

    Ahh that rotation just before the end of the video puts the side of the ship (the side away from the camera) down, where the plasma would then be coming up both the shielded belly as well as the unshielded top side... that can't be good. The video ending right after that is probably not coincidence.
  15. scaesare

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Do we know what kind of on-board compute Waymo has? And what they throw at it for training compute?
  16. scaesare

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Interesting discussion... it seems that the assumption is that the training data is only allowing the NN to watch the driving behavior of others, be it real-world video, or simulation data. But I don't see why the training data can't include the rules of the road, distilled into some form (from...
  17. scaesare

    SpaceX Starship - IFT-3 - Starbase TX - Launch Thread and Post Launch Discussion

    Interesting... is this where the exhaust plume is going from super- to sub-sonic and in essence a sonic boom? If so, it would seem that on the pad, the exhaust hitting the ground forces that slowdown, but once sufficiently in the air it's just the natural deceleration within the atmosphere...
  18. scaesare

    SpaceX Starship - IFT-4 - Starbase TX - Pre-Launch Preparations Thread

    It may be helpful to supply some context when linking to X replies here, as otherwise this is somewhat meaningless... Here's what Elon was responding to:
  19. scaesare

    Wiki Super Heavy/Starship - General Development Discussion

    Having those half a dozen Raptors out vs all of them lit really makes the rocket seem to leap off the pad rather than sluggishly struggle to gain altitude. How fast it clears the tower is significant...
  20. scaesare

    SpaceX Internet Satellite Network: Starlink

    I wonder whose making the imaging subsystem or if SpaceX is engineering them, and if so I wonder what imaging sensor. And if anybody can do it, SpaceX can:
  21. scaesare

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Is a $10 million dollar premium worthwhile to get a couple hundred tons of supplies somewhere in a couple hours when there could be hundreds/thousands of lives at stake? I could see that for some scenarios. Infrastructure for point-to-point terrestrial cargo would obviously need to be built.
  22. scaesare

    SpaceX Starship - IFT-3 - Starbase TX - Launch Thread and Post Launch Discussion

    Noticed this in watching Manley's video: Missing tile the middle there?
  23. scaesare

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Disaster response? Humanitarian crisis? Rapid military response?
  24. scaesare

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The desired cargo size doesn't have to be a container ship. 200 tons is a pretty good size, and not sure there are many other options for 90 minute delivery? Overnight Fedex can easily be 10X+ ground shipping... why can't this?
  25. scaesare

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Yup. The other thing is that, in order to tune the simulation, as well as the training model, it may be helpful to control the driver inputs in an example scenario. For example, where they position the car in the lane, what happens if they creep over the line, the reaction of other drivers to...
  26. scaesare

    Wiki Super Heavy/Starship - General Development Discussion

    Incidentally... I was thinking last night about the fact that in just about a year, Space has built and flown to destruction, over 100 of the most advanced rocket engines ever built. In over 100 years of rocketry, no person, corporation, or nation-state has ever built and flown a full-flow...
  27. scaesare

    Wiki Super Heavy/Starship - General Development Discussion

    Agreed... he tends to quote stuff they have either worked the math and principles through and see no obstacle to achieving, or actually have tested (like Raptor chamber pressures, Plaid 0-60 times, etc...). It's why when he says the Roadster w/ SpaceX pkg can achieve >1 sec 0-60 times I shake...
  28. scaesare

    Wiki Super Heavy/Starship - General Development Discussion

    Yeah... I suspect, based on the approach SX likes to take, as evidenced with F9, that there's room to grow and expand the envelope with many things in the current design... I'd bet adding Raptor V3 would allow them to hit 10K tons thrust with no size change. The stretch might require tower...
  29. scaesare

    SpaceX Starship - IFT-3 - Starbase TX - Launch Thread and Post Launch Discussion

    Yeah, I suspect that, upon breakup especially, the larger surface area-to-weight ratio slowing them and the durability will allow quite a bit to survive. Agreed, it would get to be an oven for that stuff pretty quickly. I was thinking of the Columbia disaster, where the puncture allowed the...
  30. scaesare

    SpaceX Starship - IFT-3 - Starbase TX - Launch Thread and Post Launch Discussion

    Yeah... we also saw the exhaust flame appear much more orange in some of the "high chamber pressure" Raptor tests, whereas previously they had been all purple... that color change likely due to increased film cooling. The Raptors on the booster appear to be much more purple, so I suspect they...
  31. scaesare

    SpaceX Starship - IFT-3 - Starbase TX - Launch Thread and Post Launch Discussion

    Yeah... may be... I took that to be rapid flap motion with control system trying to adjust to it tumbling.... but it also does seem to be a bit more abrupt thatn the rear flap the cam is aiming at... Upon re-watch, I also think that much of what looked like black material may simply have been...
  32. scaesare

    SpaceX Starship - IFT-3 - Starbase TX - Launch Thread and Post Launch Discussion

    Indeed... clearly stainless steel isn't going to hold up to that intense hot plasma... but it certainly seemed to hold up well given what it was exposed to... looking like a good choice for materials....
  33. scaesare

    SpaceX Starship - IFT-3 - Starbase TX - Launch Thread and Post Launch Discussion

    If so, it clearly... needed... more... cowbell... never can get enough cowbell!
  34. scaesare

    SpaceX Starship - IFT-3 - Starbase TX - Launch Thread and Post Launch Discussion

    Also, Manley posted something I saw briefly as well, but forgot to mention... looks like mostly tiles:
  35. scaesare

    Blue Origin - New Glenn

    Manley's latest video referred to the recent 60 Minutes Segment on B.O. where they said they are targeting to land a lunar cargo mission on 12-16 months. Color me skeptical.
  36. scaesare

    SpaceX Starship - IFT-3 - Starbase TX - Launch Thread and Post Launch Discussion

    Any thoughts on why the Raptor relight issues prior to splashdown? At that point the propellent would be settled... I wonder if the rapid grid fin movement implies there was some violent sloshing...
  37. scaesare

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Man, that energy per mile figure in a warm weather climate is about the same as my (admittedly vintage) Model S when chilly... Pretty impressive for that vehicle.
  38. scaesare

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I dunno... Elon's not the type to sell product at a loss just to grab market share... deliberately stay low-volume/high-price while they reduce cost, yes... but loss? Not so sure....
  39. scaesare

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    It also said "plate 'n' cup". It also has very human speech inflections. Perhaps it is a human reading the text responses, but that would seem odd given the relative ease of speech synthesis... although I've seen further replies that suggest current speech engines do some of these things... not...
  40. scaesare

    SpaceX Starship - IFT-3 - Starbase TX - Launch Thread and Post Launch Discussion

    Are you talking about the booster after it's initial boostback with all engines off? I saw this too and wondered, I don't recall seeing that kid of venting at that point with F9 boosters. Given the issues associated with dumping LOX last time, it caught my attention...
  41. scaesare

    SpaceX Starship - IFT-3 - Starbase TX - Launch Thread and Post Launch Discussion

    Thought I saw a 2nd light up on the graphic, but yeah, not as planned...
  42. scaesare

    SpaceX Starship - IFT-3 - Starbase TX - Launch Thread and Post Launch Discussion

    Ah yeah, I realized I misheard a moment later when I realized that couldn't be right. I still haven't had enough coffee (or sleep the last 3 days)...
  43. scaesare

    SpaceX Starship - IFT-3 - Starbase TX - Launch Thread and Post Launch Discussion

    So they just called Starship loss... but man another great test flight... so much more progress... Also SpaceX founded 22 yrs ago today (Pi day)... from a Mariachi band of a dozen folks to what we just saw, in a little over a couple decades... wow.
  44. scaesare

    SpaceX Starship - IFT-3 - Starbase TX - Launch Thread and Post Launch Discussion

    HOLY CRAP video during major plasma!
  45. scaesare

    SpaceX Starship - IFT-3 - Starbase TX - Launch Thread and Post Launch Discussion

    That was pretty awesome.... engine relight issues on booster, but gettin' there!
  46. scaesare

    SpaceX Starship - IFT-3 - Starbase TX - Launch Thread and Post Launch Discussion

    SpaceX now indicating their feed start at 7:52 (local) now. Prop loading commencing... cool thermal shot:
  47. scaesare

    SpaceX Starship - IFT-3 - Starbase TX - Launch Thread and Post Launch Discussion

    Ah right... coffee. :) The cool thing is that the delay will be after sunrise so we'll get much better video...
  48. scaesare

    SpaceX Starship - IFT-3 - Starbase TX - Launch Thread and Post Launch Discussion

    Whereas Tim Dodd's Everyday Astronaut feed is indicating ~8:10am local time @ Starbase (was opriginally planned to be on a job today,.. but finished a day early, so get to watch! wooohooo!)
  49. scaesare

    SpaceX Internet Satellite Network: Starlink

    Good question. Back in the dark ages of the late mid-late 90's we were doing geosync sat IP (with atrocious latency), and were one of the first to use the birds for backchannel (rather than dial-up)... and it was in the 10's of Kbps... and surprisingly that really was not an issue, due to the...