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Data point: When Tesla issued a recall to the NHTSA for the 10.3 beta, there were 11,704 vehicles recalled. That was Oct 23, so I think your 20k estimate is valid.

From my personal experience, it doesn't seem to be deploying in order of score. A bunch of people with 98s got in on the big push on Wednesday. I had 100 for 14 days exactly, and just got in today. As far as how the queue works, maybe they opted in before me? Or sustained a 98 for more than 14...

Within 10 minutes of my post I got a push notification that there's an update available! It's for FSD 10.4 (2021.36.8.5), so maybe the 10.5 minor version update (36.8.8) will come right after.

I opted in two weeks ago before a 100+ mile road trip, I've had 100 since then and still have not received beta. I feel like they've cut down a lot on the acceptance rate.