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  1. D

    Model 3 SR+ LFP Battery Range, Degradation, etc Discussion

    Unfortunately that may be true because as the SOC estimation in LFP is not easy, probably the full pack energy estimate in LFP is not easy either, and any algorithm other than a full discharge and recharge will probably be inaccurate. And then people will panic when the algorithm shows a big...
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    Range Loss Over Time, What Can Be Expected, Efficiency, How to Maintain Battery Health

    There is little actual physical reversal of degradation (a slight amount if plating is reversed, but none of the dominant mechanism of lithium precipitation at graphite anode), but most likely the BMS estimate has changed. The might have been 73.1 an underestimate and 75.4 is closer to truth or...
  3. D

    [Two] New rear tires and now autopilot weaves

    There is a tire size reset menu. Try changing to a wrong tire size, let it reboot, and then back to the right one, and reboot after that. It may do a calibration after that.
  4. D

    What do other EVs do in terms of consumption, range and charging speed compared to Tesla?

    I agree. I think they should offer a "tour" package that is Performance motor and exterior but with comfort wheels and tires and adaptive suspension. Directly target BMW Neue Klasse.
  5. D

    What do other EVs do in terms of consumption, range and charging speed compared to Tesla?

    The manufacturers still haven't fully gotten this message---they still always make less efficient larger wheels standard with the upper trims. GM is still doing it like it's 1992, except average wheel size is 20 instead of 15. The Chevy Equinox has 20" or 21" wheels with 21 only on all but the...
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    Need a new tire on 2024 M3LR already - okay to get just one Michelin Primacy MXM4?

    On the subject at utires I see lots of availability for the Hankook Ventus S1 AS in 235/45R18 at very low prices for tires with decent tread life left. That's one of the two new 2024 Model 3 18" OEM tires, the other being the Michelin Primacy A/S (without Tour, or MXM4 in the name) which is...
  7. D

    Highland Front Styling, Better or Worse?

    The nose is weird, but the rest of it--lights and sides and overall proportions of the old one is better. Better visual rhythm, especially lights. Could have fixed it by having a slight sharp crease in the nose like the S. To me, new one from the front looks like a completely generic 1990s or...
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    What do other EVs do in terms of consumption, range and charging speed compared to Tesla?

    Possibly. VW is introducing a Scout brand which would be 'adventure trucks & SUVs' directly paralleling Rivian. The simplest way to start that would be to rebadge Rivians with a styling change. but Lucid is the one with the best efficiency technology, even higher than Tesla. That means...
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    Need a new tire on 2024 M3LR already - okay to get just one Michelin Primacy MXM4?

    buy a really cheap used tire and use it for a week and then get the official Tesla T0 part. Put the fix a flat goo into your damaged tire and see if that can hold for a week. but not necessarily better.
  10. D

    What do other EVs do in terms of consumption, range and charging speed compared to Tesla?

    I'm sure Porsche does understand very well, but they aren't able to accomplish it yet. And all reports are that the Taycan has excellent handling feel despite the mass. It's not a sports car like 911 or 718 but very good for its size. They are making an electric Cayman class so they will be...
  11. D

    What do other EVs do in terms of consumption, range and charging speed compared to Tesla?

    I've always thought/said something like "Electrical efficiency is the most important parameter buyers will want for their second EV"
  12. D

    Need a new tire on 2024 M3LR already - okay to get just one Michelin Primacy MXM4?

    FYI: Tesla part numbers here: https://service.tesla.com/docs/Model3/ServiceManual/en-us/GUID-92AB1F42-7358-45AD-BACC-90A41BB3E715.html
  13. D

    Need a new tire on 2024 M3LR already - okay to get just one Michelin Primacy MXM4?

    Ask for a replacement tire with the parts department, pick it up and pay to have it mounted at DT. But first I would go back to DT and have them attempt a second repair. A more experienced tech might do a better job. Which size, 18" or 19"
  14. D

    Has anyone realized how profoundly FSD will disrupt Real Estate?

    which is where? The second is going to require AGI (interpreting human behaviors). There is nothing like those two in the vast areas of California in the training data, where most Teslas drive. I think that will require human intervention for at least 15-20 years, and a better system with...
  15. D

    The Good the BAD and UGLY experience Of Cross Country Trip

    I'm surprised then, as a sudden shut off when the display shows the HV battery still has significant charge left is a symptom of a 12V failure. There is some other rare failure I guess. The older model S may be different, but all current cars have a buffer below zero so that 0% displayed state...
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    The Good the BAD and UGLY experience Of Cross Country Trip

    Unfortunately the drain patterns of an EV computer & charger on a 12V lead acid seem to result in more battery wear and failures than a typical ICE car. On an ICE car the use pattern is a strong discharge for the starter motor, and then immediate recharge back up to maximum. Apparently that...
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    Has anyone realized how profoundly FSD will disrupt Real Estate?

    What area were you testing? This is not my experience---but my experience is in clean roads in Southern California. I think there is much more training data for California and so far I conjecture it performs significantly better there. Machine learning systems have a habit of picking up on...
  18. D

    The Good the BAD and UGLY experience Of Cross Country Trip

    I don't think the trip planning was a problem, I think you had a 12V battery failure.
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    Goodyear EcoReady

    https://www.tirerack.com/tires/tests/testDisplay.jsp?ttid=327 There's a new test from Tire Rack. I think for EVs the ElectricDrive 2 is going to be a better choice. I suspect the ED2 is going to be designed for heavier EVs, and the Ecoready for economy ICE cars generally.
  20. D

    FSD tweets

    I agree entirely. Using customer's owned car hardware for this task is lots of work for little gain and much opportunity for public backlash. Like Oscar Meyer using customer blenders to make hot dogs. The labor of high end developers needed to make that work is much better spent making their...
  21. D

    FSD tweets

    If they're using copies of the on-board hardware then that's probably an inference only phase. E.g. they research and train on large nVidia based supercomputers with strong interprocessor very low latency hardware and all the tricks that nVidia has brought to bear over 20 years. Then there's...
  22. D

    Make your robotaxi predictions for the 8/8 reveal

    its possible these are fakes. But it makes sense too to not have any new platform for robo. It was idiotic to delete the low cost platform production you want a low cost platform for human and robo driving to be shared to have the highest possible volume, high reliability and low incremental...
  23. D

    Make your robotaxi predictions for the 8/8 reveal

    I hope at least the engineers can convince Elon to at least let them use stereo cameras and infrared. Lidar will be a never but maybe imaging radars I hope. And Robotaxis is a great example of where Elon hype and bullishness will clash with reality. Waymo had superficially great driving 7...
  24. D

    Has anyone realized how profoundly FSD will disrupt Real Estate?

    Septic cleanout and electricity and vehicle registration will equal rent costs then
  25. D

    Make your robotaxi predictions for the 8/8 reveal

    let's remember the promises on the Battery Day, and DOJO, solar roof, and all that and then the reality of what came afterwards In a nutshell the in house stuff is mostly a bust and they're still buying batteries 95% from other suppliers, and they're buying ML systems 95% from other suppliers...
  26. D

    Make your robotaxi predictions for the 8/8 reveal

    And other than the M3 (which is a long time ago with less Elon ego) none of those meant that production engineering was anywhere near complete or production installation had even started.
  27. D

    2024 Model 3 LR AWD is now eligible for the $7500 tax credit [posted 06/17/2024]

    Do the ones with the credit have more range? The Panasonic packs have a bit more energy than the LGs. I suspect the difference is more bureaucratic paperwork than a change in battery.
  28. D

    2024 Model 3 LR AWD is now eligible for the $7500 tax credit [posted 06/17/2024]

    No, the Treasury department loosened the interpretation of regulations to allow more Chinese graphite.
  29. D

    The Good the BAD and UGLY experience Of Cross Country Trip

    I wouldn't recommend that. The newer cars have a different electrical system to accomodate the lithium ion accessory battery, which is a nominal 16V CATL NCM, not LFP. LFP has different voltage-current curve than lead acid and it wouldn't work right in an older car---the ohmmu has problems.
  30. D

    The Good the BAD and UGLY experience Of Cross Country Trip

    Agree. I don't know the full algorithm, but when the lead acid is spontaneously losing charge the main battery will come on more often to charge it. But when the SOC of the main battery is low it probably stops trying to top off the 12V, and now the 12V runs down quick and died. Or the power...
  31. D

    Artificial Intelligence

    Potentially but distributed parked computers don't have that much value. The cases it could handle are limited---and useless unless there is at least high reliable download bandwith. The tasks have to be trivially paralellizable. The value would be large scale scoring/evaluation of models...
  32. D

    Artificial Intelligence

    High latency low reliability network connections aren't so useful for very large scale training. There's a good reason the highly intimately linked supercomputer NVidia boards binding coprocessors very tightly and other connections binding boards closely are preferred and most useful. This...
  33. D

    Artificial Intelligence

    He said that AI will not learn spatial reasoning purely from text and he is correct. The LLMs can sort of guess at some proxy to spatial reasoning when expressed through text on simple examples---and the GPT-4 system is opaque how it is trained but it is not only on text. LeCun does not...
  34. D

    18” photon (highland) wheels on M3P??

    tire compound, tread design and internal construction (and shape, i.e. wheel diameter a bit) influences rolling resistance. Amount of open area on tire + wheel strongly influences aerodynamics. Tires are always fully closed so going to smaller wheels improves aero unless your wheel is flat...
  35. D

    FSD tweets

    unless there's some sort of emergent property breakthrough (and that would be on training data size first) I conjecture first order scaling is going to be logarithmic in compute performance: like log(mistake_rate) = A - B*log log flops And you need the clean dataset size and model memory size...
  36. D

    Make your robotaxi predictions for the 8/8 reveal

    Worried this might be like Elon doubling down on the Cybertruck, he's going to push on what he personally thinks is Cool but not appealing to the masses.
  37. D

    Hankook Ventus ION A vs ION EVO (A/S versions)

    https://www.hankooktire.com/us/en/tire/ventus/s1as-h125.html Material Code 10300060, 98V is the Tesla tire with foam and 8.5 tread depth. Material Code 1028523 98W is the non-foam generic tire with 10 tread depth.
  38. D

    Hankook Ventus ION A vs ION EVO (A/S versions)

    Which specific tire model? Hankook Ventus S1 A/S? There are indeed two distinct Hankook part numbers for 235/45R18. Only one is Tesla OEM with the foam---and lower tread depth for efficiency. So that can't be foam that is added after manufacturing.
  39. D

    FSD 12 causing flat tires (right rear)

    My theory: it's trained heavily on Model 3 data (most numerous) and doesn't adjust for car model. People who complain about hitting curbs seems to be Model Y, S and X, which are wider. It's taking the centerline as learned from human 3 drivers. It's been fine for me, but I have a 3.
  40. D

    Make your robotaxi predictions for the 8/8 reveal

    Not good for taking luggage inside. Those upswing doors are expensive and prone to abuse damage and will hit a neighboring car or pole. And why low profile tires? Why not 16" with big fat rubber like in the old days? A traditional London Taxi is near the optimal configuration in the...
  41. D

    Hankook Ventus ION A vs ION EVO (A/S versions)

    I believe these are the same as the iON EVO---just the earlier name. I think you got an earlier manufactured tire at a giant discount.
  42. D

    Hankook Ventus ION A vs ION EVO (A/S versions)

    I'm disappointed the summer iON have no treadlife warranty at all. Even if were 35k or 40k vs 50k I would consider it. I drive in southern California and have no need for any snow or cold weather performance ever. That the summers have no treadlife warranty is Hankook signaling to me that...
  43. D

    Artificial Intelligence

    It's never a numerical issue. The issue is the type of people applying for those. History shows by far the best don't work at an environment with aggressive nasty leaders. They work at Bell Labs type or Los Alamos Labs with real scientists running the place and insulating the creators from...
  44. D

    Artificial Intelligence

    His personality and management is dissuading the high end ML scientists who have options. Who would choose Tesla over OpenAI, Anthropic, FAIR, Microsoft or Deep Mind? Particularly with Musk's ill informed hot takes and aggressive firing and chaotic demands. With musk running things more...
  45. D

    Artificial Intelligence

    My problem is that he changed, very significantly. Before about 2020 I thought he was a good business leader and worth investing with. Now I fear he will seriously damage or kill the only new Western car maker that has a chance of defending against the upcoming Chinese. I fear that he's...
  46. D

    Artificial Intelligence

    Being wrong isn't the problem. Being wrong and aggressively advertising it on Twitter is a clear sign of lack of personal discipline and judgment, consistent with similar behavior over the last 3 years. A proper way for someone in that position would be write a note privately to Apple...
  47. D

    Artificial Intelligence

    This is your CEOs brain: 🥚 This is your CEOs brain on drugs: 🍳🍳😵‍💫 Any questions?
  48. D

    Question: Best OEM or equivalent Tires for Model 3? - 05/2025 -

    Which size wheel? It's possible that Tesla has multiple suppliers competing for the business.
  49. D

    Hankook Ventus ION A vs ION EVO (A/S versions)

    the All Season version should have a tread life warranty. The discount tire website seems to have a glitch. Look on tirerack.com (which is owned by DT now).
  50. D

    Question: Best OEM or equivalent Tires for Model 3? - 05/2025 -

    The Michelin Primacy MXM4 has a "T1" annotated to its name technically for the Tesla specific one. The Hankook Ventus S1 AS, in 235/45R18 has a 98V load and the Tesla specific is the only one of that line with the "Soundabsorber" foam...