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Check out Eos Energy: EOSE. It’s the first non lithium ion battery grid storage solution to scale. Great for 4 to 12 hour storage where lithium ion is not optimal. Massive TAM. First production line is going through acceptance testing right now.

I don’t believe Tesla has ever had a down fundraising round as private or public company. Rivian went public at around $70. It’s now raising funds at $10. That is a huge disaster.

Negative ecological effects regrettable as they may be do not change the fact that hydroelectric power is renewable. It just means the power source is self renewing on a daily or seasonal basis.

NVDA literally got to a $3.3T valuation by selling generalized AI chips supported by their proprietary software ecosystem. https://www.visualcapitalist.com/nvidia-revenue-by-product-line/#:~:text=powered%20by%20Syntax.-,Advertisement,fourth%20quarter%20of%20last%20year. Nvidia makes more...

Nvidia makes its living selling chips. Its huge margins come from its HW business. It’s just starting to dip its toe into cloud services. I seriously doubt Tesla will ever get into selling chips.

Tesla should exit the solar business. All it’s doing is causing reputational damage and wasting money. If the future really is Optimus and robotaxi, wasting resources on solar makes even less sense. It seems Musk would rather keep up the charade than admit the Solarcity acquisition is a bust

You are leaving out a critical detail. Musk had to grow valuation from $100B to $650B or he didn’t a single dime. As for the “founder” nonsense, only people who know zilch about startups find it interesting. Adoptive parents would find your quip about adopted children offensive.

When has pushback ever stopped the march of technological progress ?

The 300 mile version possibly. 500 mile no way

It’s not so far fetched. A hundred million cars are sold every year.

Fun fact: Bill Gates held 40% of Microsoft at IPO. During the decade of stagnation he divested his Microsoft shares and holds less than 2% today. Without divestment, he’d be worth around $1T

If there was going to be a mass exodus, wouldn’t it have started already ? Most companies require a shareholder vote to redomicile. Don’t see too many boards preemptively calling for a vote because Elon Musk didn’t get his $56 billion

I on the other hand would perfectly fine with Tesla getting out of the power wall business. Same with solar

Tesla is actually pretty good at keeping things locked down. Far better than most car companies. The model 3, model Y and cybertruck were all unseen before reveal.

There’s literally zero chance of that happening. Tesla is not even trying to do that. Tesla’s chip only has to better at FSD training to be worth the investment.

The Daimler eActros is a 300 mile clean electric design that is supposed to go into production this year. It’s a cab over design for the European market. Daimler owns Freightliner and a U.S. version without the cab over is expected in a couple of years. That’s the plan anyway. Agree it could...

Their current offerings are short to medium range and based on diesel chassis. It’s the 300+ mile offerings on designed from the ground up electric platforms that they plan to debut in the 2026 to 2027 that will give the Tesla semi real competition technology wise and cost wise. It’s obvious the...

Not a valid comparison. The leaf was a short range city car. The model S was the first long range EV of the modern era. Tesla was a first mover in the long range BEV market and held a cost advantage for a long time. No one currently makes electric semis at scale but the incumbents are gearing...

At the rate things are moving, Tesla will not have a first mover advantage. The incumbent truck manufacturers are developing their own cell supply to scale up EV manufacturing.

TSLA is down 56% from ATH. Does that qualify as a crash ? I for one have a hard time seeing NVDA do that.

It should be clear from my post that I understand that distinction. This post actually buttresses my point. State of incorporation is not meaningful as a measure of economic impact. If it was, Delaware would be an economic heavyweight. Most non banking companies incorporated in Delaware have...

Tesla is not Texas’ first big company. 55 Fortune 500 companies including Tesla are headquartered in Tx. Virtually all have significant operations in Tx. Austin metro is the second biggest semiconductor company cluster after the Bay Area. State GDP at $2 trillion is #3 after CA and NY. Tesla...

Nvidia has less exposure to the Chinese market than Tesla and TSMC is adding capacity outside Taiwan. In the event of war in Taiwan, I’d worry more about Tesla. Chinese buyers will reject American brands and in 2024, nothing is more American than Tesla.

Uncle Sam has perfect credit and he is offering 4.5% for 5 years. The customers could all have 800 credit; no bank will give them a better deal than treasury rates

Warren has missed the boat on lots of things and is still one of the most successful investors in history.

Why is it a sad thing that the nation’s largest retailer leads in any areas of sustainability.

Unfortunately, the law does not work that way Neither do uninsured drivers.

Tesla can only cut margins so much. It still needs cash to fund its growth. There is a lot of capex between now and meaningful FSD revenues.

The starting point in any comparative analysis of robotaxi vs Uber should be gross bookings not revenue. Uber gross bookings from mobility were $19B last quarter. Mobility revenue was $5.5B. About two-thirds of gross bookings were from North America. The gross bookings break down almost equally...

If you think about it, it might make more sense for employees at the nearest service center to pick the sites since they are local.

Back in 2018, Musk announced at an earnings call that Tesla would be closing all galleries and moving to a strictly online sales model. It felt impulsive and abrupt. Musk would reverse that decision within a few weeks. This feels the same way to me. I don’t get how you blanket fire an entire...

Inductive chargers also need people to handle the installation. If anything it might even be more work. And yes, I know Tesla mostly uses contractors

When Musk says Tesla is “worth zero” without autonomy, that is obviously just hyperbole. Today’s valuation is justified based on future cash flow streams from auto, energy and charging. Plenty of Tesla bulls on Wall Street do not have autonomy anywhere in their models. Anyone buying Tesla today...

Tesla could only advance their storage business as fast as cell availability and market readiness allowed. It is only in the last couple of years that those factors have converged to create the environment we see today. Last year, Tesla deployed 14.7 Gwh out of a total 97 Gwh globally. That is...

Tesla’s competition in the stationary storage space are the big, vertically integrated Asian cell manufacturers; BYD, CATL, LG and Samsung. No western entity other than Tesla is going to achieve the scale needed to compete in that space. We should see a shakeout in the next few years. Many Tesla...

The stationary storage business inherently has better operating leverage than the auto business. Operating margin at 200 Gwh scale should not be much less than gross margin. There’s also the recurring stream of service/maintenance and SW revenue that will become very meaningful as the deployed...

Be careful with words like “quasi infinite”.

Competition from CATL and BYD is not compatible with long term “ridiculous” margins. They are far more vertically integrated than Tesla in stationary storage and are used to competing on price. The good news is volumes will explode so much so that even gross margins of 20% will move the needle...

There are plenty of use cases that will probably always need a human. Some Uber riders need luggage assistance and request it when booking a ride. That’s obviously not going to happen with robotaxi.

The real question is what the unit economics of a fully autonomous, electric ride sharing network will be ?

You do have to wonder why alphabet cut waymo loose if it is on the verge of scaling robotaxi ? Today’s $30B valuation is not so impressive given at one point Waymo was valued as high as $200B. Tesla still has the inside track on scaling autonomy. It’s just going to be a lot more painful than...

Waymo is currently the yardstick for autonomy. Can their approach scale ? No. Commercially it’s probably a dead end. But the fact still remains that Tesla would have to reduce disengagements by an order of magnitude to match waymo.

You get to vote one share. Not exactly going to move the needle.

It looks like a good sign. He knows he can’t just call into this one. Hopefully he”ll take it seriously enough to prep

This is a call like no other in Tesla’s history. All the indications are that Tesla has made a hard pivot to autonomy. Wall Street would want to know exactly what that means for the legacy auto business. In my opinion, Tessa would better off just telling the truth; let investors know if next gen...

If they give a non answer to number 5, the stock is heading south. Wall Street does not believe in FSD.

Osborning across price points tends to be exaggerated. Model S/X sales did not crater between model 3 reveal and launch. I “ve seen no evidence nextgen holdouts are affecting model 3/Y sales. Osborning because of model updates or new body types on the same platform is much more common. As soon...

No western company is trying to compete at the $10k price point. Japanese and Korean companies are not trying to compete there either. There is a pretty significant difference between $10k and $25k. BYD already has BEVs that serve the $25k price point in China. That is the competition that...

Twenty years ago, the idea of $1000 cell phones finding a mass market was unthinkable. Sure, it helps that the carriers shield their customers from the upfront cost but it’s still a lot of money. If FSD delivers the utility, it will sell for more than $99 a month. Tesla can offer reduced...

It’s rarely that simple. Many times the person making the decisions does not know the employees very well. Often times, the older and more expensive employees get the shaft. You can be a stellar performer but be deemed not as critical as someone who is not as high performing.