Search results

There are plenty of use cases that will probably always need a human. Some Uber riders need luggage assistance and request it when booking a ride. That’s obviously not going to happen with robotaxi.

The real question is what the unit economics of a fully autonomous, electric ride sharing network will be ?

You do have to wonder why alphabet cut waymo loose if it is on the verge of scaling robotaxi ? Today’s $30B valuation is not so impressive given at one point Waymo was valued as high as $200B. Tesla still has the inside track on scaling autonomy. It’s just going to be a lot more painful than...

Waymo is currently the yardstick for autonomy. Can their approach scale ? No. Commercially it’s probably a dead end. But the fact still remains that Tesla would have to reduce disengagements by an order of magnitude to match waymo.

You get to vote one share. Not exactly going to move the needle.

It looks like a good sign. He knows he can’t just call into this one. Hopefully he”ll take it seriously enough to prep

This is a call like no other in Tesla’s history. All the indications are that Tesla has made a hard pivot to autonomy. Wall Street would want to know exactly what that means for the legacy auto business. In my opinion, Tessa would better off just telling the truth; let investors know if next gen...

If they give a non answer to number 5, the stock is heading south. Wall Street does not believe in FSD.

Osborning across price points tends to be exaggerated. Model S/X sales did not crater between model 3 reveal and launch. I “ve seen no evidence nextgen holdouts are affecting model 3/Y sales. Osborning because of model updates or new body types on the same platform is much more common. As soon...

No western company is trying to compete at the $10k price point. Japanese and Korean companies are not trying to compete there either. There is a pretty significant difference between $10k and $25k. BYD already has BEVs that serve the $25k price point in China. That is the competition that...

Twenty years ago, the idea of $1000 cell phones finding a mass market was unthinkable. Sure, it helps that the carriers shield their customers from the upfront cost but it’s still a lot of money. If FSD delivers the utility, it will sell for more than $99 a month. Tesla can offer reduced...

It’s rarely that simple. Many times the person making the decisions does not know the employees very well. Often times, the older and more expensive employees get the shaft. You can be a stellar performer but be deemed not as critical as someone who is not as high performing.

If there was ever an earnings call that Elon needs to prep for this is the one. Unfortunately it is not in his nature. He “ll say something stupid like “automomy margins are irrelevant” and that will be the headline the day after

Tesla without autonomy is not worth a whole lot more than today’s price.

Robotaxis are useful in every scenario that an Uber is useful.

Elon needs to be able to explain his vision for robotaxis without crapping all over the existing business. No one needs to hear Tesla is worth zero without autonomy or that auto margins don’t matter or gen3 is irrelevant. That is my biggest fear for the robotaxi event; that the biggest...

We”ll get something roadmap-ish which will probably be revamped within a year. At this point, you either trust Elon or you don’t.

Even with the IRA, I doubt Tesla will eke out much of a cost advantage over CATL and BYD.

You don’t “need” the unboxed line to build the robotaxi. A regular line would build it even if it’s not as efficient. Elon may very well have decided that speed to market trumps efficiency. If you believe like he does that Tesla is worth zero without FSD, everything that is happening makes...

Gwynn Shotwell is an engineer by training and she certainly started out her career doing engineering.

No one remotely knowledgeable about satellite communications would think that starlink would have a problem working in cars. Satellite terminals work on aircraft. GM cars have had onstar for decades. Starlink is the densest satellite network ever built. It can keep up a high speed link in the...

I suggest you look up videos of what IEDs did to MRAPs in Iraq or what drones are doing to tanks in Ukraine. The cybertruck is a civilian vehicle. It wouldn’t last two seconds on the battlefield

Speaking of the zoox robotaxi, it is currently running an autonomous shuttle service between zoox offices in Foster city CA. I think the ideal form factor for a robotaxi would look something like that. They appear to have the manufacturing part down some but are going down the same Lidar dead...

I seriously doubt they’ve been working on it continuously for a decade. It’s not that hard a problem once the car parks itself in the right place. It’s probably been solved engineering wise a long time ago. Tesla has to decide if it’s the approach they want to take.

The truth lies somewhere between Reuters and Musk. I seriously doubt Reuters made this story up completely out of thin air and I do not completely believe Musk’s non specific denial. Something has fundamentally changed about the program. If I had to guess, Reuter’s sources are in Asia and...

Tesla would never launch a service that had an accident every 10,000 miles. That’s way worse than the average driver.

Troy did very well. I never understood the anti-Troy vibe on this forum. For anyone that truly believes in the long term outcome, this is a buying opportunity.

How about they make a billion in revenue first ?

They ‘re not even set up to collect the data. A serious competitor could collect a million video clips one year after reaching the starting line. They are all several years from that.

No auto company is catching up to Tesla in self driving; technologically or commercially. Nvidia and Google will probably eventually establish some kind of foothold and set up an iOS/Android style duopoly with Tesla being iOS. Tesla can forestall that some by licensing its software. Tesla has a...

There are only so many people willing to beta test self driving software and they already own Teslas.

It does not have to increase revenue by much initially. The very notion that this is becoming a product with appeal outside the Tesla/tech enthusiast community is a big deal. Once regular people start signing up for subscriptions and raving about the product, Wall street will notice. They love...

The current “production line” is really simple because the current semi is hand assembled. There is a reason Tesla has never shown it to the public. The volume production line will not be simple.

Has Tesla ever said that they will offer full autonomy outside of a company owned or company operated fleet ? I think what you are describing - privately owned vehicles in full autonomous mode in private operation - is decades away. Sure an individual can choose to sleep while on FSD but I don’t...

FSD does not have a 19% take rate. It’s somewhere around 7%.

He’s optimistic it’s solvable

I would suggest that when it comes to rare corner cases, Tesla has barely begun to scratch the surface. There are an almost infinite array of possibilities. Tesla will be finding them for decades. The good news is that it will be not be worth anyone’s while to try and catch up. It would take...

Compute may not be a constraint for the amount of data they currently have but data still needs to increase by an order of magnitude for full autonomy. Current compute gets them to reliable FSD which increases take rate which brings jn more data. So yes to get to the point where disengagements...

Dojo is never going to beat Nvidia across a wide suite of applications. It lacks the software ecosystem to be a general purpose solution. It’s not going to be the “undisputed leader in AI hardware”. If all it ever does is be more efficient at FSD training than Nvidia it would be a huge win for...

Nvidia’s GPUs are general purpose AI devices. They are not as efficient as google’s TPUs at doing certain things. Google tailors its TPUs to its internal workloads. Likewise Dojo should be more efficient at video training because it is optimized for FSD. Nvidia chips are incredibly efficient...

Those are foreseeable and solvable problems. What happens when a passenger walks away and leaves a door or the trunk open. I ‘m sure a robotaxi will be able to close a door or trunk automatically. Today’s model 3/Y can’t. If you’re giving a million rides a day, that only has to happen once in...

The truth lies somewhere in-between. If it was purely an advertisement, the cybertruck would have come last.

There is no semi production line. The semi is manually assembled. There is nothing in any of those pictures you wouldn’t see in the workshop of a large truck fleet. It makes no sense for Tesla to replicate that especially since a high volume production line is slightly less than a year away.

I was referring to the initial cost of deploying at scale. A trial is a necessary step but I don’t think it will move the stock as much as people think. The market needs to see the path to profitable scale. That will take time and money. Those cars have to be cleaned, maintained, charged and...

It does need to be cheaper. $100ish a month. It does not need to be good enough to take a nap. It needs to be good enough that Tesla owners find it a compelling value at that price. A robotaxi trial will not move the stock. It’s a trial. Logistically, it will be a slow, expensive endeavor. It...

We may be approaching the moment when FSD becomes a sales driver.

The point remains that there is not enough sufficiently urgent and valuable cargo in the world to make it worth anyone’s while to build space launch infrastructure to transport cargo by space. “Hours = millions” situations is not a business opportunity that scales enough to justify $250 million...

I actually think the high cost was a way to limit uptake to the most motivated buyers while the tech was still in development. A reduction in price would be very bullish

While they are gearing to up to do all that, they need to improve the FSD take rate. Unlike robotaxi, FSD is zero cost and instantly accretive at close to 100 margin. No safety drivers, app or logistics needed. Serious improvement in FSD take rate instantly re-rates Tesla as a legitimate AI...

I disagree but I will be very happy to be wrong.