Search results

The pride that people have at insulating themselves further and further from level-heading commenters is really a saddening effect, especially as many of these very same people belove Musk who would abhor the very same actions. The signal to noise ratio is being heavily reduced by ad-hominem...

Um, accepting Israel as a sovereign state and agreeing on borders with small land swaps? I don't like settlement expansion (though keep in mind a few of those settlements were there pre 1948), but they aren't a dealbreaker for establishing a state. All the disconnected ones would be gone in a...

1) UNRWA doesn't have to be part of Hamas to have negative effects. Hamas is siphoning money / materials off them either way. 2) As for belligerence...I don't know. The false premise I think most westerners operate is thinking that Palestinians would leave peacefully if Israel just left them...

This is a good point. Tesla's profit per car is down a bit, but it's not terrible. A bigger issue to loss of operating profit is large capex and opex. Operating profit is down much more due to funding battery development, AI, etc... As an odd parallel, I was bullish on Meta 18 months ago...

If you legitimately don't America to be part of it, then you would also support defunding UNRWA. Hamas siphons "aid" money which should be enough reason alone, but there are also dubious aspects of UNRWA itself like it teaching material, complicit knowledge of Hamas building tunnels under them...

What's the inverse of FUD? Hype? Because we need to call a spade a spade here. Either you are not paying attention, or willingly misleading. The capacity will be boosted over some time, not over the next year. There is no 50% YoY growth being maintained. It's 50%... over a few years. For...

Nice post. I'm struggling to see how all the data coming in doesn't indicate to most people in this forum that the growth of selling consumer EVs has been and will continue to be slower than it was a few years ago. And slower than the old 50% YoY (on average) growth target. It's all there...

The compact "next-gen" car is gone. The next-gen thing is now the robotaxi. The "new" vehicles built on the Model 3/Y platform are apparently just a slightly smaller SUV. Probably like the HRV to Honda's CRV for the Model Y.

LOL. Definitely not the same thing. He dismissed some managers, not the entire team. So please find a better example. If he let go of the entire supercharger team, is there a historical example in Musk companies of that team being rebuilt?

You are making a tenuous assumption that those incremental revenues come without incremental costs being recognized at the same time.

2023 Levelized Energy Costs. Solar + battery is better than many but there are still some cheaper options. Battery costs for purchasers will have to come down signficantly (meaning lower ASPs) for the levelized costs to start making more financial sense for solar + battery systems.

Remember, there is simply a delay between delivery and revenue recognition (in stage). If you plot them both over time, there is generally just a shift to the left for revenue recognition. That's it. I would advise people not to separate deferred revenue components in their modeling as it just...

Sure I agree it’s a great business. And there will be massive growth long term as combination with solar is the long term future of energy generation. But people keep ignoring that that volume expansion will only make sense if battery ASPs come down significantly for the consumer. And they will...

Sure I agree it’s a great business. And there will be massive growth long term as combination with solar is the long term future of energy generation. The comparison of behavior is really pointed toward the TSLA investor mentality repeated, not the technology. Megapacks are a relatively...

This is the sort of dangerous assumptions that got TSLA investors into trouble in 2021 - 2022 when share price assumed massive automotive margins would be maintained with volume expansion. Demand is not infinite. If demand was infinite right now, Tesla would be able to sell megapacks from much...

What, exactly, do we think the "new EVs" on the Model 3 / Y lines are going to be? Are they / we counting Model Y refresh / Project Juniper as one of these? Is there going to be a compact car? Or a van? What do we think the breakdown and timelines are going to be? This was too vague from...

Except everyone knows from the data that EVs have been hurt much worse than "Autos" in general. Not just Teslas, all EVs. I'm ascribing that to "uncertain macroeconomic environment". If you want to separate it from "macro environment", then the CFO should have said "weakening BEV demand". We...

I'm still digesting the earnings transcript. Overall positive, but I think does not change earnings estimates for 2024 and 2025 too much in my first guess. First question though, I keep seeing people making excuses that Q1 was down due to supply constraints. The CFO literally said...

I think Tesla Energy margins should increase a bit, but hard to see much revenue growth the rest of this year. There will be some from deferred revenue, but Lathrop hasn't expanded 2nd line yet. That means no additional production capacity until 2nd half of this year at minimum, and no increased...

Nope. That’s projection.

This is not the Elon Musk thread. There’s one for that. This is not the SpaceX thread. There’s one for that too. This thread is for analyzing Tesla as an investment vehicle. People are interested in both the success of the company and making money. It’s the American way. The company doing...

Now this is funny coming from one of the most over the top YouTube accounts. What happened to Model 3 Highland being a single piece casting? 🙄🙄🙄

Since I have moved to a more conservative phase of investing, I sold last at $200 almost all of my position (i keep some shares for sentimental reasons) when I mentioned in this thread my analysis for why the stock would drop to $150. Yes the guarantee of $2k has now turned into a *maybe*...

Musk has chosen war. War on profits in order to push volume. It’s a bold strategy, getting close to the point that Tesla ends up break even on automotive cash flows. At this point I can’t see institutional investors buying into the robotaxi narrative from a risk-adjusted investment...

Speaking of simple math, have you figured out yet that Tesla's gross profits have actually decreased?

The denial of demand issues is getting totally absurd. As @Troy states, Europe already had plenty of inventory. And the trajectory is still flat along all the other quarters (which didn't have supply chain issues). Since Q1 is always the weakest, doesn't really make sense it was somehow "held...

What do you really not think?

Elon Musk changed his profile picture to one with the word "auto" underneath. And intentionally: Auto = automobiles? Auto = autonomous? Auto = autoeroticism?

Apparently the head of the cathode factory project has been let go too.

Would be pretty funny if Elon Musk scales training compute 1000x and uses all the electricity in the United States, raising prices wildly, and forcing everyone to stop buying EVs. "It's for the mission" repeat the lemmings after taking their sedative. P.S. - as I may have to explain for...

Yeah it's just common sense applied to previous experiences. Don't know why people would radicalize your vanilla conjecture. What's interesting of note is that at both SpaceX and Tesla, highly valued employees are emphatically offered a 3-4 month sabbatical if they resign. Many take up on the...

Who said your investment won't be fine? Who said to sell? It seems you are projecting some PTSD of past FUD on things I didn't say or imply. I didn't say the is going bankrupt lol. This is why we can't have a rational conversation. Many people here are ready to hit the nuke button as soon...

Layoffs are normal at every company. Layoffs at a company valued for high earnings growth (PE ratio of 60!!!) while earnings are shrinking, is not normal. Well not normal for a healthy company. Long term, investors need to be wary of what long term gross margins are operating margins are...

Yeah Rohan also made it sound like it was his decision. As we know both didn't suddenly make their decision this weekend, do you think both let Elon know months ago they were going to leave, and he told them to hold on until a certain date? The way the layoff news came out, I doubt Elon knew...

Everyone here has opinions. You just don't like some and want everyone to quash them. I suggest people think for themselves and not caving to peer pressure on who and who not to listen to.

#1 I thought about posting these layoff rumors this weekend, but hoped someone else would as I am paid off by Bloomberg and Reuters. Not surprisingly, no one posted anything. People are totally fine with posting bullish rumors, but everyone afraid to post not so nice rumors. That is a danger...

I have driven in FSD v12.3. It drives extremely natural, human like! I could totally imagine it already being smooth enough to drive as a robotaxi, as I was totally comfortable with how it was driving as I was a passenger. Lots nuanced tendencies that it picked up to drive like a competent human...

They can squeeze efficiency out, but not a > 100x reduction anytime soon.

I believe geofencing can definitely reduce the error rate and thus reduce the need for how big the models would have to get.

My "agenda" is to assess when Tesla's robotaxi approach might actually become viable, and make investments based on that assessment. What is wrong with those statements? Do you not believe it is currently 100x worse than a human? Does that statement feel aggressive to you? The current software...

Who said zero? Who said 10x better than human? Right now, it's about 100x worse than human, and I'm inferring based on some data on how these models scale that getting to human equivalent may take more than 100x in data and model size. Compute too, but part of that can be solved by training...

This is one of the most important posts on this forum given the high importance FSD robotaxis has suddenly become in supporting any future apprecation of share price, so it's surprising there's not much discussion. You have given some good evidence for why it's quite likely the models are...

Critical disengagement. That rate is somewhere between 200-400 miles right now, up from 100 miles last year. I expect the rate of improvement to increase from V11 before because of end to end and increased compute allowing bigger gains as the "easier" stuff gets picked off. 3x in 4 months is a...

So the original poster claimed S3XY will be autonomous robotaxis by 8/8/2024 with no data or anything, and not a peep from you. But me being more conservative --> "I'd prefer that more of their posts avoided presumption and included background to support their statements." lol :rolleyes...

Factually incorrect. The average residential rate for PG&E customers is now $0.45!!! (citation though I don't need one since I live in SF Bay Area) https://www.solar.com/learn/pge-electric-rates/#:~:text=The%20average%20bundled%20electric%20rate,and%20the%20time%20of%20year. But it's not...

:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

I know, any attempt at not-over-the-top estimations are not only mocked here, but immediately labeled as FUD. But hilariously if you looked at my projections over the past year (many of which were disagreed with and mocked), I ended up being overoptimistic. Just much less so than most others...

Well over 35% of Tesla's U.S. sales go to California alone, by far Tesla's largest state, where electricity rates have absolutely gone up like crazy. And I've heard plenty of people mention it as a factor, so yeah I'm considering it is a contributor. Not the only contributor to weak EV demand...

LOL. At this rate, by 8/8 everyone will say, "this is pretty cool tech demo that gets 1000 miles / critical disengagement, which is neat and all, but looks like years before it will get to 100,000 miles per critical disengagement. So won't buy the stock on some soon to happen robotaxi hype"...

One main reason demand (price adjusted) for EVs is down across the board in the U.S. The problem is that the current rapid inflation in electricity prices isn't going to correct itself anytime soon. At best, the inflation will slow to zero, and allow wages to catch up but that would take a...