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On the other hand, it might cut down the rate of mutiny from other departments in the future... Maybe a small price to pay long term... Compare this to VW etc where the entire company will fight change from Herbert Diess etc and how much it might cost long term. Imo if you see someone doing a...

Another hint at v12.4+

Guess there will be a market for non-physical labor robots also.

Must read article: This time, we are the horses: the disruption of labor by humanoid robots

This neural net is running entirely end-to-end, meaning that it only consumes video coming from the bot’s 2D cameras, as well as on-board proprioceptive sensors, and produces joints control sequences directly. It runs entirely on the bot’s embedded FSD computer, powered by the on-board battery...

(it's a Quest Pro VR headset) I wonder how it feels to do jobs in VR... And will customers be allowed to do this? Could be neat to do tasks from inside and not have to do the heavy lifting all day. But what if someone controls the robot to use a gun? Should we send it to the battlefront in...

I hear a few people misunderstanding what Tesla and Elon are saying. In ER Elon said they aim to do useful work in the factory in the end of 2024. In this video the show the bot "useful" work in the factory now. Tweets confirm that multiple bots are doing "useful" work in the factory. So what...

Over the past couple of months, our awesome manufacturing team has built more bots for us to work on, and collect AI data from! We’ve trained and deployed a neural net allowing Optimus to start doing useful tasks, such as picking up battery cells coming down a conveyor and precisely inserting...

All those years of hard work by large teams of human engineers will be duplicated by ASI in days so any software moat will be moot. Likely future neural networks will be a lot more efficient at learning from small amount of data, maybe on the same or better level than expert humans today. ASI...

Microsoft today is largely a b2b company. They have the entire software suite for companies including Windows, Outlook, Excel, VS Code, Github, Teams, Dynamics, Azure etc. Imo they will insert AI into every step and integrate it all, making companies using their software much more efficient...

Excellent post. However with GPTs etc it's becoming increasing easy to quickly generate well sounding posts that are slightly difficult to argue against. The trolls are evolving... I will give you one example. This text below is a troll answer to your post above generated by a troll AI: A...

Another post from 2 years ago that I cannot quote as that thread was locked: I get the feeling that this is coming true for the rountable thread. I don't mind bears who are here to debate. But I do recognize the change that is happening, they are not here to debate, they are here to cause...

Some meta debate about Elon being wrong: There are many ways to be wrong. There is being wrong by disagreeing with OP on some philosophical point. Imo that doesn't make Elon wrong, he just has a different view. Then there is being wrong about facts. Community notes will correct these, this is...

IF Metall eases the Tesla blockade on May 1 IF Metall eases the blockade against Tesla. The trade union confirms this for Di. The reason is that jobs are outsourced to workshops that do not have a collective agreement, and IF Metall wants to avoid that. "Of course we don't want our conflict...

I look forward to controlling an optimus or two with a neuralink.

Regarding the Chuck Cook turn: V11 was doing decently on this turn using the median. V12 has had ups and downs, visualization from V11 not corresponding to V12 actions etc. Imo it's pretty impressive that they even try it at and that we've gotten to the point where the basics is solved and the...

What strikes me most is how well Elon is received by China and how sad it is that we in the west are not cheering for our guys anymore. Even if you disagree with Elon on some issues, which most Chinese do, we want the innovation to be happening here... Europe has lost it a long time ago...

I remember when he presented it. What a crazy insane feat for a car company to have done all it took to get to the point where they could abstracted it so the customer(the FSD team) only had to change one line of code...

So I was wrong about FSD revenue recognition due to sFSD no longer being beta. But seems that Autopark released some revenue: I am gonna guess ASS will recognize some more revenue in Q2.

$25k car early 2025 or late this year! CyberCab!

130% QoQ compute growth. If we extrapolate it, that's 28x/year. Well above the 10x/year that seems to be standard nowadays. But it came a pretty hefty price. But the reason Tesla decided to do that was because they thought the decision to do it had a positive EV. Given the uncertainty the...

This was a nice interview. Here another leading AI robotics company is tell what strategy they are using. You can interpret this how you want, but my interpretation is that they are validating Tesla's approach: If you are an investor you want Tesla to give away as little information as...

The main advantage of Tesla having a lot more compute is that their engineers can iterate faster and that they can increase the dataset. Meta who has tons of compute has released their newer GPT version and performance has improved a lot compared to last year: Just look at the score of MATH...

We are close to the bubble. Tesla has pushed allin, but their stack covers the others player so they will not be eliminated even if their hand doesn't hold.

They have a list of milestones when they will have certain % in deferred revenue. Going from beta to no longer beta likely happened as they thought that they had accomplished some goals which likely correspond to the goals for recognising deferred revenue.

Doing the layoff in Q2 will add costs to Q2 for severance packages and restructuring. I think deliveries > production in Q2 as they had lots of cars in transit in Q1 which will add a benefit. I have a feeling they will recognize a lot deferred FSD revenue in Q2 as sFSD is no longer Beta. In all...

4680 is NMC for the high capacity batteries that they need for Semi, Cybertruck and future products such as Optimus, eVTOL etc. CATL are doing LFP and Sodium for stationary storage and mass market models such as 3/Y/25k etc. Tesla has realized that they need more LFP made in the US due to IRA...

I wonder if Elon's Auto in his profile is related to AUTO in Wall-E: Maybe Tesla are building Auto?

Learning from Tele Operation works:

Haven't seen any news about the attack on Tesla Fremont:

Auto- (prefix): "Auto-" is a prefix derived from Greek, meaning "self" or "same." It is used in various compound words to indicate self-operation or self-action, such as "autonomous" (self-governing) or "autopilot" (a device for steering an aircraft or ship).

Drew started as a junior at Tesla back in 2006. It was a very high risk startup and most people only do these startups for a year or two. He has been massively incentivised to stay with stock options that has since then gone to the moon. His salary likely was in the millions and his stock...

One nice thing with the trial month. People will not buy any other brand:

FSD choosing the wrong lane:

Milei greeting Elon:

I have. But I do recognize this kind of discussion, it doesn't end well... So let's end it before mods get annoyed.

1. It's true that we currently need more data approximate what humans can do with artificial neural networks 2. It's also true that in many domains we can exceed what humans can do by using lots of data 3. Tesla has lots of data FSD currently has driven >1B miles with 0 deaths. This...

If your neural network can solve it, expect an artifical neural network to solve it. You don't solve it using magic...

1. you input the GPS position into the neural network, train it on a diverse dataset and the neural network learns what regulatory rules are active at different GPS positions 2. you preprocess the GPS position to figure out which jurisdiction you are in, for example "california = 1 ... china 623...

He talks about end2end object detection, not end2end control. His argument is that you will have objects right in space but wrong in lane and that this is problem. Didn't Tesla solve this by having a single neural network doing all the predictions. If not can you just solve it using language of...

Just chance unit from mile to meter and you can add three nines. Imo it's just a figure of speech, probably based on six sigma. Six Sigma is a set of methodologies and tools used to improve business processes by reducing defects and errors, minimizing variation, and increasing quality and...

It's easy for us to pretend to be CEOs of billion dollar companies, but let's face it, we would likely make a lot worse decisions. I think it's better to try to understand why they make the decisions and what it implies rather than trying to figure out which decision had the highest EV. Elon...

So basically supervised FSD has saved many lives and prevented many injuries. And it's been getting better.

Good luck getting all the photon counts from all the cameras to be identical over a few hundred frames from two different time points of a vehicle moving. Even getting the car to move two identical paths is hard enough even without worrying about the light. It's called probabilistic robotics...