About 5 months later, I think I'm still underproducing.
My project advisor at Tesla broke down my 21,887 kWh expected annual production by month and emailed me the result. They broke it down as:
Jan. 32kwh, Feb. 44kwh, Mar. 57kwh, April 73kwh, May 78kwh, June 85kwh, July 82kwh, Aug 77kwh...