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Yes. That theory is beyond pie in the sky. I know people working on the infotainment systems for big OEMs (Daimler, BMW) and the designs and production are auctioned off with the lowest bidder winning it most of the time. They use off the shelf processors that are available in volume and have...

That's not true for the vast majority of the cars sold now. For several reasons: 1. Most legacy manufacturers don't run latest Nvidia chips or even Nvidia chips at all. They prefer older processor designs as they're cheaper due to volume. 2. The integration required to run a car autonomously...

Isn't this exactly what was being said about Tesla though? That they won't be able to manufacture cars as efficiently as the legacy manufacturers. Tesla can't afford to be this arrogant on a market that's just in the process of being developed. There are a lot of companies that have incredibly...

I think FSD trial and take rate is what this quarter hinges on. And any seemingly good news on the autonomy side will rule over any bad/good news in terms of deliveries / quarterly profits. It will be very interesting to see the real-world improvement of 12.4 vs 12.3 and if it's anything close...

D1 is underperforming Nvidia's offerings and wouldn't be competitive when offered as part of a cloud service. Not to mention Tesla hasn't moved an inch towards implementing any sort of cloud as a service solution and doesn't really have the expertise nor can do any sort of integration with...

Uh, what do you mean? Dojo?

What does moving AI away from Tesla actually mean? For better or worse, FSD is the best AI play that Elon has and that's tied to Tesla in every other way. Optimus is early in development, but everyone is demo-ing the same things there, safe to assume there's no moat to be had.

I think it would be worth asking the people running the tracker if: 1. They are removing the outlier data collected. I'm not a statistician but that's pretty normal to do. 2. If they publish individual data collected, filtered by individual testers.

I don't disagree, but I think a 5-10x improvement will shin through. There's not enough variability in the way it's collected to be able to mask such an improvement.

True, but the FSD tracker should provide some clarity on that. I'm expecting to see the average number of kms between interventions go from 100km to 500-1000km. I don't see any scenario in which the CEO of a company employing ~140 000 people gets angry at one person and ends up firing 500...

No, as I was still waiting on clarifications. Again, we don't know how good the Yipit data is. My personal take is that the number isn't impressive, it's the same story as it was with the Model 2 Gen3. Technically the original news gets one piece of the puzzle wrong and you can call it a lie. In...

I'd wait until we get actual data from Tesla before celebrating this. Technically 4% is double what that survey said which would count as "much higher than 2%", but at the same time I don't think anyone would celebrate it. Saying that, if Tesla is able to get 100x improvement on DE frequency...

So people tend to assume the current trend, be it bearish or bullish, will continue indefinitely and just pile on? Colour me surprised :)

Why wouldn't they have kept them from the start?

Waymo objectively operates better than the Tesla since it's actually autonomous. People will say Tesla's approach is universal, but at the moment is not autonomous, As I said, IF Tesla can pull it off, given how cheap their technological solution is, they'll have a significant MOAT at least for...

It's not correct to compare Tesla with the other manufacturers. Their valuation has tens of percent of yearly growth rate built-in. That's a very naive thing to say and believe when: 1. The companies actually operating autonomous systems managed to do so without "millions of cars". 2. There...

I'm not disputing most of your points and I don't think the ones with which I don't agree actually matter to the point I was trying to make. :) Let me rephrase it. If you're Elon and on the cusp of turning on a money printing machine on 8/8, your company has 25B in the bank, there's no logical...

Factually, unless you believe that Fsd 12.3.6 has a critical disengagement frequency lower than 1/ 17000 miles, then Tesla's costs will be similar. If you're looking at the loss that Google's "other bets" is reporting, then we just don't know what comes from operational losses and what comes...

Do you genuinely believe that firing an entire department and tens of percent from others is good for morale? This isn't a question about bulls and bears, but common sense.

They get kickbacks from the seller. My company offered (through klarna) 0% 12 month payment plans for our products (1000-4000 € sales) and we, as the seller, were paying klarna 18% of the sale price back. That's with reference interest rates in the 0% range.

It puzzles me why you're so confused and aggressive about this. Without going into the validity of the data, why would you outrightly assume the right axis' maximum value should be 100%. If you want to represent time-based evolution in the single digit percentage, there's no logical reason to...

Why do you think the FSD tracker is flawed? (I also partially share this thought, but always curious to get another perspective) But as a broader point, if Tesla is just about to turn the switch on a robotaxi moneymaking fleet, with 25B in the bank, what's the logic behind antagonizing and...

Legacy OEMs have a pipeline delay measured of at least 3-4 years. My 2023 bmw 5 series has pretty much perfect lane assist and can easily handle highways with any sort of bends you'd normally find. My previous 2017 Mercedes was hilariously bad. Essentially any manufacturer that is happy to pay...

They are not comparable and winning at chess seemed impossible only for people outside CS. You can build a pretty strong chess algorithm quite early while learning to program (I did it as part of a homework in my second year of university), how it fared against a grandmaster was mostly a...

It will be soon enough. Germany has a huge say in EU regulations and German carmakers have a huge say in German politics. Arguably, with most R&D on ICE engines stopped, their profitability from old tech cars will increase. It's just a question of how fast will Tesla and the Chinese...

Where do Elon's 50% CAGR targets fall under? :)

It's really puzzling to me how being well below the bear case (based on the Ark projections of 2019) in terms of car volume and margins is seen as an achievement and proof of good execution by some.

Fair enough. There was another poster who made a very good comment yesterday on this conundrum. They have the best data for California, but launching there would invite permanent comparisons to Waymo. Which, at least initially, might be underwhelming for Tesla.

Not at all. Please read the regulation posted on the California's DMV website where it contains all the definitions related to this. Also have a look at Waymo's reported disengagements, where all cars had safety drivers present. Essentially a safety driver in an autonomous test vehicle has a...

I mentioned this before. When you're priced for double digit CAGR, you can't really use companies priced 10x cheaper as a yard stick. This is Chinese companies eating everyone else's lunch. Same as Elon predicted.

Are they though? BYD showed high double digit growth in pretty much every category for April. Source: https://insideevs.com/news/718208/byd-global-plugin-car-sales-april2024/ If I were to bet, I'd bet on doing it outside of California and then releasing cherry-picked statistics, same as...

Do you think Waymo would go as far as saying their cars can handle construction sites if they couldn't in any situation? I don't think the potential benefits of them saying this outweigh the risks. Secondly, I don't think it's feasible to imagine that they're able to map construction areas in...

Seems like they can now handle un-mapped construction zones without having generic issues (I'm sure there are situations when it still fails):

And to clarify, since they'll need to report disengagements to the DMV, your expectation is that, as soon as they start rollouts with safety drivers, their official disengagement data will be on par with Waymo?

If you give a "yes/no" answer, like the poster you're advocating for, then it means your knowledge and status in the field is such that no other explanations are required. I always added extensive arguments to my points.

Allow me to discard your opinion, unless you're an expert in AI and self-driving, your opinion is merely based on hopes and dreams. :) And when do you think the driverless rollout will happen? Just so I can set a reminder to come back to this topic.

It's pretty clear that nobody on this forum (and only a handful of people that post online) have the required background and inside knowledge required to comment with such certainty. Just think for a second that if they were that tied to pre-processing, they wouldn't be able to handle any...

I don't think it's valid to compare a solution that's currently level 4 with one that's level 2, but which promises to jump straight to level 5. Promises are cheap. Also, without knowing Waymo's algorithms in detail, nobody can say how specialized / how much high definition mapping their...

We've been over this a number of times. They're obligated to report how many times that happens and it's roughly once in 17000 miles, as per official data submitted to the DMV. I think that's pretty good. PS: As per the information available and which was posted on this forum a number of times...

Wouldn't the fact that Waymo is able to run cars in L4 with no major issues be a counterpoint to that?

Thanks! There's a nuance in there: "Multiple tasks", not "all tasks". But it's better than I expected and wouldn't consider it a major problem. I think the major problems with all humanoid robots are: 1. If the task is supposed to take 100% of the bot's time, then there's a decent chance that...

I'd take another slightly different angle on this. Before a humanoid robot, there are two other options for any job: 1. Have a human doing it. Pretty obvious. 2. Have a specialized automation doing it. This is actually what Optimus will be competing with. A good small team from a reputable...

In the context of AGI it's pretty close to 0%. But percentages mean nothing if we don't know the target.

It doesn't contradict what Troy is saying. It also doesn't mean it's not impressive. I don't know why people only think in black & white when actually everything is in a gray area. Yes, the robot learned the moves from a human, that's pretty much how a human employed to do the job would do it as...

You hit the nail on the head. The core of their business with these AI chips is selling the compute time to other companies. The problem is (and I've heard it from a lot of sources) is that most non-tech companies are still struggling to find use cases for this "naive" AI that Chat GPT and the...

I think that's not entirely accurate. For several reasons: Both of them sell AI compute directly via Azure and GCP. Google has been using AI to power their search and Ad businesses for over a decade. Microsoft is selling Copilot as well as selling various levels of AI-based products through...

Fair enough, when you put it like that, 40k cars is not that massive. Agreed. For what it's worth, I much like Tesla's model (and to some extent the Japanese way of building cars) than the European way where you can customize (and pay through the nose) for even the most basic functionality.

Arguably Apple shouldn't even tried to get close to autonomous cars. There were much lower hanging fruit like Cloud or AI for them to do. I mean at this point Siri is a disgrace and that gap will only grow bigger.

What market would've had excess demand in Q1 though? Prices were dropping everywhere and there was inventory present to satisfy that potential excess demand

Over here, in my corner of Europe, the SC network was a huge reason why people switched to a Tesla. Most other networks were implemented almost to tick a box and companies didn't care about them because there few people using them (chicken and egg problem). People are saying there are some...