Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Search results

  1. eloder

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The Tesla subreddit has become a cesspool of FUD lately, an echo chamber of false statements that are easily disproved by watching raw FSD beta videos or even just by reading the car manuals. You can't get me to believe that this experience is true, because it simply does not show up in hours...
  2. eloder

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    If you have a spread, it's hard to get out ahead of time because both legs go up. For example, back in January I had a fully ITM spread that would expire in June, but if I sold it then I would have only realized about half the profit. In this particular case, it is possible I may not get...
  3. eloder

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    It's probably a worse experience overall though if the waitlist for a Tesla grows to 12+ months. Imagine the dissatisfaction of delivery hell from when Model 3s were first starting to ramp, multiplied tenfold. More revenue from Tesla can translate to cheaper, non-subsidized cars from increased...
  4. eloder

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The big problem for me is that it usually means we're going to be flat/dropping before ER, and flat/dropping after ER. I can barely remember going up after ER short term. Just wish I had more time on my June 800 calls. I feel like they're going to expire worthless.
  5. eloder

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Nah, there's a near-zero chance of any really positive EV legislation passing in the current political US climate.
  6. eloder

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I'm pretty happy. Back around these levels earlier this year, I sold OTM covered calls at my retirement exit level for Jan '23. In the past few trading days, I bought back or coverted 80% of them into debit spreads. This is crazy. This dip and rise may let me leanFIRE later this year on...
  7. eloder

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    After the last couple of weeks of down action, I just have to remember how the competition is shaping up: Apparently, the VW ID4 offers a pretty awful road trip experience compared to Tesla. (Spoilers: The ID4 doesn't have in-car navigation to Electrify America, will recommend 10 hour...
  8. eloder

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I believe my TD Ameritrade is broken from the call bid/ask volatility explosion from the last minute :rolleyes: (Deep green ITM call debit spreads over the past several months as well as some covered calls, so everything is actually fine).
  9. eloder

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    For those who are doing some short-term option plays around inclusion: Need a not-advice: To keep my June 800c's as-is (to the moon bet), to turn them into a vertical spread on Friday (lock in fantastic profits+some room to run ), or to see what happens on Monday?
  10. eloder

    How much $ to retire and how to fund your lifestyle in retirement

    I don't think I'm in the right forum to be asking this, but is there anyone who retired early with expenses under $30-40k a year? If so, when did you retire and about what was your nest egg / withdrawal strategy like? I'm in a moderate COL city but have a low-cost lifestyle. No other people to...
  11. eloder

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I've begun selling covered call LEAPs because them triggering would be hitting my sale targets that I expected in the year 2025+
  12. eloder

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I think this deserves to be repeated for people who think not being included is a good thing. Also I think it's important to keep in mind that we were at about 200 post-split before the prospect of the 4th quarterly profit (and thus, inclusion) was solidified. We weren't even at 300 post-split...
  13. eloder

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    TD Ameritrade is definitely having some issues calculating options post-split. That, or it temporarily switched my account with one of the shortzies. (Discrepancy is that some legs from my options are not calculating properly yet)
  14. eloder

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The insane short interest (by dollar amount, not float) indicates that many people aren't expecting it, and are willing to bet tens of billions to support their viewpoint.
  15. eloder

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    People with lots of money can do both. If you double your money in 7-30 days from the stock price skyrocketing and the covered calls trigger, you win. If you pick up more shares at a big discount from periodically triggering your put contracts, you win. If you don't trigger the covered calls...
  16. eloder

    S&P spike - when to sell and when to re-buy?

    I guess it all depends on your risk tolerance and if you have other things to spend it on. Vague answer but that's probably the only accurate one anyone can give you. Trying to time peaks is a sure-fire way to lose money in the long run, and we're still a fraction the market cap of other big...
  17. eloder

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Man, the FUD really is trying to stretch for new fantasies... Tesla Downside If China Arrests Musk
  18. eloder

    Coronavirus

    You are going through extreme normalcy bias. Life has changed drastically for Italy, one of the largest economies in the world. In a span of three weeks they went from completely normal to the most extreme peace-time western martial law in generations, a state in which they will continue in for...
  19. eloder

    Coronavirus

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/03/09/coronavirus-live-updates/?fbclid=IwAR2EGxfNCqiA8yXugz--g_1jWB7Dzg5dnDCYcb0yHwoAvySEGz773yhwpfg&utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook
  20. eloder

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Just another small data point for those who might be interested: my HW3.0 upgrade is being performed at the Columbus, Ohio service center. (And I got a mythical P85 loaner!). Not proactively reached out to, but they didn't cancel my appointment when scheduling.
  21. eloder

    Coronavirus

    Humans don't grasp exponentials or S curves that well. I'll stop being worried when new cases in the developed world stop growing exponentially. Keep in mind the difference between us and Italy is 9 days; between us and Iran is 2 months (at current level of seriousness), between us and China...
  22. eloder

    Coronavirus

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/02/28/coronavirus-live-updates/ More info on the new case. Two separate clusters possibly of community spread in Cali now.
  23. eloder

    Coronavirus

    To be fair, if you've been following this thread, it was also cautiously optimistic or outright positive up until just a few days ago. Some people voiced concerns early, but most did not until this week. I think the first warning bell sounded here was the possibility that Iran dropped the...
  24. eloder

    Coronavirus

    I don't think we've heard of any concrete evidence, though so far factories appear to be normally busy thanks to all the drone people. Tesla is more vertically integrated than other auto companies, so they would probably be hurt the least by disruption. But the impact of the rest of the market...
  25. eloder

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I'm fully cost averaged out on my shorter term leveraged positions and non core holdings. I fully believe Tesla will be one of the best places after these fears subside, so I'll be averaging back in if we drop down (and may open a call to rebuy at these levels or under). If we turn around...
  26. eloder

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    This market has a lot of pumping in general that any end to the Trump presidency will cause a drop. Extended QE, heavy corporate tax cuts, and soon-to-expire personal tax cuts for wealthy individuals are likely all candidates to be reversed with the blue wave. I think TSLA will still fair...
  27. eloder

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Friday has more risk thanks to the weekend, thus IV goes up Fridays and usually drops back down Monday absent other factors.
  28. eloder

    What to spend new TSLA wealth on (out of main)

    My mid-range and EAP/FSD package was pretty much purchased for <15k thanks to a combination of the tax credit, a lucky January call, and the amount I sold from TSLA for a large down payment. Unfortunately this means I'll probably be more open to upgrading unnecessarily in the future, since I...
  29. eloder

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    It must be insider trading* *brokers are coordinating their margin calls all at once!
  30. eloder

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Not all options have infinite losses. Selling a naked call for example is infinite. If the strike is 100 and the stock price goes to 10,000, you're responsible for buying 100 shares at 10,000 and only get $100x100 back. Your example is a covered call where you already own the stock, so that's...
  31. eloder

    Snippiness 2.0

    Hopefully not getting too OT, but I think it's important to frame the potential impact this may have to Tesla as far as bad press or in case people do try lawsuits. The Monroney sticker in the US is only valid on new cars, not on used cars. Used cars require the Buyer's Guide. Apparently the...
  32. eloder

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I need to buy another Model 3. It has given me the luckiest string of sale timing ever. Sold ~20k above 350 in late 2018 for down payment (bought it all back after Q1 with tax credit and savings), sold a $1.3k option for $29k yesterday minutes before the flash crash simply because I had a limit...
  33. eloder

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I couldn't resist some profit taking today. But a $2000 options play in mid-January was enough to buy a decked-out performance Model 3. Sold one of the three options off 20 minutes before close (July with 800, 900, 1000 strikes). I fully expect to regret this play tomorrow, but at least I have...
  34. eloder

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I had far OTM July options that are now / will soon be ITM. How would other people play these in a squeeze situation? (One was already up 17x yesterday) Random side note, I breached a six figure net worth last month. This morning I'll breach 200k. I'm flabbergasted. I never thought I would come...
  35. eloder

    Options trading strategy/advice

    I'm looking for some not-an-advice from more experienced option traders, as I've historically only been a "buy and hold only" type of person: My 2% options bet from a few weeks ago has now become ~14% of my entire profile's worth. The positions expire in July, with strikes of 800, 900, and...
  36. eloder

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    To be fair, I think every single day in 2020 has been within a 2 to 5 day period following immense gains and thus subject to margin calling :cool:
  37. eloder

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    My TSLA holdings are 3x greater than my 401k, and I have the equivalent of 12% of my salary going into the 401k for the past ~7 years. As a youngling, I'm beginning to think the idea of an early retirement isn't so crazy after all, and that it may even happen within 10-15 years... Without this...
  38. eloder

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    So I've always been a buy equity and hold type of person, but I decided to buy my first option ever and throw a $80 lotto call at this play. Probably going to end up evaporating, but it'll be interesting to see if it doesn't.
  39. eloder

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Deliveries Of The Made-in-China Tesla Model 3 Start: Videos Does anyone have a secondary source for this? Inside EVs reports that Model 3 MIC production is already at 280 a day or near 2000 per week. Big ammunition if true, especially with most media still thinking the factory is making 15 per...
  40. eloder

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Personally, I wouldn't be surprised if every public Model Y timeline has been referring to "late 2018 Model 3" production levels--meaning the revised timelines would put the initial vehicles (and the initial slow-ish ramp) as many as 3-6 months beforehand. If they're shooting for summer volume...
  41. eloder

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The Prius was market-leading even with its looks. Any business who cares in the slightest about money or profits will be buying this at that starting price, period. I think that members of the general public will warm to it. I have a feeling this truck will do pretty well.
  42. eloder

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    https://www.motortrend.com/news/tesla-cybertruck-electric-pickup-photos-info Motortrend had an advanced look at the Cybertruck. It looks really awesome--there are a lot of features not mentioned in the presentation. (Check out the video they have if you don't have much time)
  43. eloder

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Pushing 308. This is too entertaining.
  44. eloder

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I think this was a given, due to the repeated stress on "volume" production in their timelines. I would take it with a grain of salt, though. Keep in mind how long it took volume production to happen on the Model 3, despite hitting their deadline on starting Model 3 production. I wouldn't be...
  45. eloder

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Pearl white multi-coat as default seems like it'd be a huge margin hit. This color is by far the most popular Model 3 in my city. Definitely seems like a typo given Elon's statement, too.
  46. eloder

    16.2 Near Collision w/ Auto Lane Change

    I agree, it seems like the car very logically made the decision to abandon. It just should have braked for the other car in the original lane. As always, AP should still always be done under supervision. I like to keep the follow distance relatively high so I know very early to take control...
  47. eloder

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    My higher-ups (I work for a fortune100 company) make really stupid internal communications, too. It just doesn't get the media attention that Elon does.
  48. eloder

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    These forums are in maximum panic. Time to buy. People are fearful :) As always, not an advice, don't touch options unless you are prepared for heavy loss, cost average buys steadily, etc etc.
  49. eloder

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I can't wait for my Sentry Mode Auto Insurance discount, to be honest. I think it's an extremely good news. Insurance companies in general seem to screw over EV drivers. (Even when driving econo-EVs, I had insurance quotes that were 4x higher than what I am paying with my Model 3 now--only...