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  1. CorneliusXX

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Bit of a perfect storm for people who bought their vehicles during Covid New vehicle price was high and has dropped considerably since = pushing down prices of used vehicles EV incentives = further reducing price differential of used vehicles compared to new Higher interest rates = less...
  2. CorneliusXX

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Have you seen the stock price lately. It's all caused by the breakdown in these societal rules. I should tweet about it.
  3. CorneliusXX

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    If Tesla does get out competed by this Chinese smartphone maker they can simply ask Apple for help.
  4. CorneliusXX

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    I just saw this tweet about rebels in Myanmar 3d printing drones in the jungle. The cost reduction and manufacturing simplification of drones vs legacy weapons systems is remarkable.
  5. CorneliusXX

    Bitcoin, Cryptocurrency and Blockchain Discussion Thread

    Yeah, it feels like winter is well and truly done and we'll get a few months of crazy due to ETF + halving. I'm looking to sell down some BTC in this next run when thinks look a bit nutty.
  6. CorneliusXX

    What other tech stock to consider?

    The all-in podcast did about 10 minutes on it a couple of weeks ago. They were fairly negative on it for similar reasons to you. It's lined up below. I use Reddit quite frequently and think it adds a lot of value to get a wide range of views, particularly on niche topics. That said, it is...
  7. CorneliusXX

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Solar roof is still ticking along. I know it's at a far slower rate than we may have expected half a decade ago, and perhaps more expensive - but Tesla learns and innovates from every install. It'll get there in the end.
  8. CorneliusXX

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    It never ceases to amaze me how money men can carve up assets.
  9. CorneliusXX

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    How many of those does Fred get for free?
  10. CorneliusXX

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    what kind of licence do you need to pilot that vehicle?
  11. CorneliusXX

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    I don't think the US will go in that direction - there's likely enough politicians willing to vote against exiting NATO. But Europe can't take the risk of it happening without looking after their own defence regardless of the outcome.
  12. CorneliusXX

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Even if the retooling is enough to significantly extend their runway I'd expect it to be positive for the stock. If they can reduce losses to a point where cash on hand will last (e.g.) 5 years instead of the c.2 years at the current burn rate it buys Rivian a lot of time to get better.
  13. CorneliusXX

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    While Europe's progress has been slow, I think the external shocks of the Russian invasion and Trump's position on NATO will be good for Europe. Hopefully it will give a purpose to Europe and awaken the animal spirits of an extremely well educated continent to innovate and build the next...
  14. CorneliusXX

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    I have a bunch of free browser extensions that aim to block trackers, ads, paywalls, and otherwise avoid troubles on the internet. One of them did the job on this site and I could read it fine. Having them installed makes using the internet much more pleasant. Add Block Plus UBlock Origin...
  15. CorneliusXX

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I assumed they were in desperate need to go to another room in the house.
  16. CorneliusXX

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    Apparently Russia has been producing more jets than it's lost in the war, according to Binkov.
  17. CorneliusXX

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    I assumed the numbers were rankings from best to worst
  18. CorneliusXX

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    Found?
  19. CorneliusXX

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The cell production building looks like it is just waiting for equipment. Once they have a line established in Texas they want to replicate I wouldn't be surprised if we see GigaBerlin ramp cell production extremely quickly - particularly given many of the line machines are built by ex Ghromann...
  20. CorneliusXX

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Looks like licensing Chinese LFP production is going to be the way forward for US LFP cells (as opposed to reinventing the process once patents end)
  21. CorneliusXX

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    Unless it is going to cause the Kessler syndrome I don't see how it would have a material impact on starlink as new unaffected satellites would orbit minutes after any nuclear/emp blast.
  22. CorneliusXX

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I might have missed this update, but GigaBerlin is back to full speed.
  23. CorneliusXX

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I find it pretty useful both personally and in my job in finance. A couple of examples: Employee annual reviews. I type the key points in short form and ask chat GPT to covert it into corporate speak. I also get it to change the tone of the message if it sounds too negative. A gripe turns into...
  24. CorneliusXX

    Bitcoin, Cryptocurrency and Blockchain Discussion Thread

    Back to profit. Apparently it's volatile. I predict it will go up, then down, and so forth.
  25. CorneliusXX

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    To me, this is one of the most true statements about history. Everybody got together at the fall of the soviet union and decided what was and was not a country. There are obviously many hundreds of cultural history before that but they agreed the country split - Russia is by force trying to...
  26. CorneliusXX

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Nvidia must think Tesla is on a winning strategy with Dojo.
  27. CorneliusXX

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    We're probably at a low point for the west at the moment. Initial donations have run low but EU+Ukraine industry hasn't had time to spin up arms production while Russian production has increased production more rapidly as they have moved to more of a wartime economy. Another year or two and it's...
  28. CorneliusXX

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    There's a well moderated subreddit call AskHistorians which is fact checking the Tucker interview (well, the historical bits, as the name suggests). From my initial read it sounds like it is solid propaganda with a lot of truthful statements but the exclusion of counterarguments and broader...
  29. CorneliusXX

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    More elegant than my glorious treatise‽
  30. CorneliusXX

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    Seems weird. Why wouldn't Ukraine take them and stick them in a shed somewhere. Even if they didn't need them right now it's better to have them and not need them than vice versa. Zelensky has also been very politically savvy, and turning their noses up at free weapons is not that. I could be...
  31. CorneliusXX

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    It is the right thing to do. We've had half a decade to sell our shares if we didn't like the package, and Elon has done what he signed up for and agreed with us. If we believe he will create more value in the future and this plan convinces him to stay, it's also in our greedy and opportunistic...
  32. CorneliusXX

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Tesla might have to go shopping for a new exchange as well as a new domicile.
  33. CorneliusXX

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Decent numbers coming out of China
  34. CorneliusXX

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Excellent news if Tesla is confident enough to have $500m worth of Dojo chips manufactured. Do we know if NY state is subsidising this?
  35. CorneliusXX

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    In addition to your excellent post, I wanted to add some perspective from an Australian EV market as it has some interesting characteristics that may make it a bellwether or stepping stone for wider Chinese vehicle acceptance in western countries: Some background characteristics of the...
  36. CorneliusXX

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Doesn't Elon need to be CEO or Chairman until his options vest?
  37. CorneliusXX

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Sorry, was doing the math for the manufacturing credit instead of the 7,500 credit when responding. Standard range volume should be fine though right? It would be the same economics as the standard 3 with LFP coming out of Fremont in terms of tax credits? They seem to sell OK.
  38. CorneliusXX

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    If the info from Kelvin from a couple of days ago is correct that LFP is being sold at the $47kWh range the credit won't matter much. It would likely be close to $40 cheaper than nickel cells anyway.
  39. CorneliusXX

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    4680 LFP from BYD. Might allow additional volumes while Tesla is ramping it's own lines.
  40. CorneliusXX

    Bitcoin, Cryptocurrency and Blockchain Discussion Thread

    I'm not going to try and justify an argument I didn't make because I've been accused of making it. You can go back and read that I think lots of "stupid" items have value to certain people over a long time horizon. I didn't say rai stones were analogous to BTC any more than sneakers or fine art...
  41. CorneliusXX

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The price of LFP appears to be getting crushed at the moment. Interesting to see how this plays out.
  42. CorneliusXX

    Bitcoin, Cryptocurrency and Blockchain Discussion Thread

    Yes, you're right - it was remiss of me to not include the cyberpunks, utopians, Austrian economists, and libertarians. These somewhat overlapping ideological groups formed the core group of die hard fans that underpin the story. There was an interesting infographic on the r/bitcoin forum that...
  43. CorneliusXX

    Bitcoin, Cryptocurrency and Blockchain Discussion Thread

    Yes, that is what people who align with the other side of the discussion say. The whole topic is a dead end these days as lines have been drawn in the community - so not a discussion that I would want to open up.
  44. CorneliusXX

    Bitcoin, Cryptocurrency and Blockchain Discussion Thread

    The author is a DEI warrior and creative writer with a clearly agenda driven paper. The article is also not addressing my point, which is only that there are items we think are absurd that hold value as a currency for generations, and not that they are analogous to Bitcoin - which the writer is...
  45. CorneliusXX

    Bitcoin, Cryptocurrency and Blockchain Discussion Thread

    I remember about a decade ago, when first looking into Bitcoin, reading quite a lot about what "worth" and "value" are. The more I read about it the more stupid it sounded. A fun one I liked was the story of Rai Stones. They are nearly the dumbest form I can think of for currency and a store of...
  46. CorneliusXX

    Bitcoin, Cryptocurrency and Blockchain Discussion Thread

    Out of interest, how do you see Bitcoin evolving? Do people just decide it's not worth anything one day? Or a long steady decline?
  47. CorneliusXX

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    You mean the P/E isn't still at 1400x? Strange. Emperor Theodosius of the Byzantine empire would only just be getting his investment back now if he had invested at 1400x.
  48. CorneliusXX

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    If Elon wants to dilute me 5% when Tesla reaches $10T I won't be crying about it. Maybe fewer tranches in the next round with bigger intervals. 1% every $2T increase in market cap.
  49. CorneliusXX

    Gigafactory locations and products

    Good to see construction getting under way. Will be a while until we see Semi volume increase significantly though
  50. CorneliusXX

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    It's a fully baked number for political purposes. The $3b for the vehicle plant sounds more in line with the Tesla investment in the Mexico plant, with cheaper labour. If we added all the supplier investment into Mexico we end up at $15b too...