Search results

The validation was explained in depth by Ashok on the last earnings call. It's the process of "tiered" testing of a newly trained NN's (hundreds of them) by: - running millions of clips against it, therefore checking if the new NN's would perform equally, better or worse than the last big...

Now Tesla uses lidar to check if all employees are at their stations 80 hrs a week. /s

James Douma explained this as: "The fleet is a search engine, not a tape recorder." Tesla talked about this on an AI day. They can query the fleet for examples resembling a clip/situation they're having trouble with.

The industry value Optimus can disrupt is huge indeed... but not the entire value will flow to $TSLA. This all depends on the price point/margins they sell them at. So I hope Tesla provides the bot to customers at an OK price (say $25k to $50k) and then offers SaaS subscription plans to use...

Update: I rolled the 5/10 -190p's to 5/24 -190p's for $2.2 gain per contract. I rolled the 5/10 -187.5p's to 6/7 -180p's for slight gain per contract ($0.2). I rolled the 5/10 -190c's to 5/24 -200c's for $0.88 gain per contract. (I know, I could let these expire BUT if TSLA were to recover by...

Hmm, for 5/10 I've got -190c's on the line versus -190p's and -187.5p's. Only enough cash to execute either the 190p's or the 187.5 p's. Theta of the 190p's is down to around $0.5, the 187.5p's to $0.8. In serious doubt to start rolling the puts, but on the other hand we could easily end up...

Agree on both points: 1) some breakthroughs are necessary (but expected, so best to already get crackin' on the hardware side) 2) safety is critical. I thought Tesla was going to work with a big "turn off" switch that could not be software overridden. (they mentioned this on one of their AI...

To add to this, current FSD 12.3.x is not feature complete since for example reversing/switching gears is not in the set of possible actions FSD can perform. In a few months this will be included (if we can believe Ashok/Elon tweets) which will adress many interventions due to the car getting...

It's all about the mobility of the humanoid robot. It can go wherever humans can go, so the cost to set-up the humanoid robot is near zero compared to for example specialized KUKA-robots. (And flexibility: Optimus will be able to perform a variety of tasks instead of just the one of a fixed...

You lost me at "nothing in the pipeline".

You're right that both threads are hijacked by emotional posts upon big swing days (either up or down). That said, I do feel this thread is more about trying to stay focused, calm and calculated and how to play the hand the market deals us. Many of us that have seen dark days (for example when...

Did Tesla/Elon give any guidance to when the new Autopark (for non USS cars) will arrive in Europe?

Yes, It's the annoying human trait of "wanting to express an opinion" even though one is not qualified at all. I'll leave managing the company to others, I'll just focus on my job and my portfolio.

Yes in theory one should wait for the expected "top" and then split the DITM cc's into lesser ITM cc's. But hindsight is 20/20.

Yeah I also write puts and straddle those against the cc's. I guess the question is how you want to position yourself delta wise. (And that depends on strategy, future SP expectations, etc)

Random thoughts on ITM CC management. Say I'm short 10x 190cc's for next week and they're looking to end up ITM. We've discussed many times how to deal with this. One can roll out in time for credit, roll up in strike (and out in time) for breakeven, even further up in strike for a debit, etc...

Indeed. Also, the HODLers ignore that you can be long term bullish AND make money on downturns (or hedge against them). The two things I picked up from @Yoona are: 1) don't lose capital 2) small steps >>> large steps (Still working on number one, since I keep core TSLA shares. But I have...

The flow is real. But it will pull back before we go to $250. Trying to time the pull back with the expiration of my $190 cc's. (Currently for next week, I will probably roll them week by week until I see a pullback.)

-190c/-190p straddle in place for next week. Ratio 3:1 This "fixes" all my positions. Best case we end at $189, my calls vanish, and I can either take assignment on the puts or roll them.

I agree the brief explanations we read (which are not official reports BTW) don't make sense. The PM move has a squeezy feel to it, which could easily be reversed once large volume comes in (profit taking and the like). That said, I'm not going to try and stand in front of this steamroller.

Isn't that a setting? In my "EU FSD" car (so navigate on Autopilot is the highest available) model Y I have a setting to activate "FSD" with one or two presses.

Nuance: the 10B number is training compute and inference in the car. The inference compute in the car is the HW3 / HW4 FSD chip, which Tesla "spends" when creating the vehicle but the end customer pays for this in their purchase price. So I'd say max 6B in compute spend. Will the market realise...

What happened to our pre-BPS-discovery days? Back then we said: "I'll roll the $167.5cc's when the SP reaches $167.5". Joking aside, if it were me, I'd just put an alert on my WeBull- app for when TSLA hits $167 and only THEN start to freak out and look for a roll. EDIT: this is only helpful...

I understand the comments differently. We will see lower cost models sooner, but not as low as $25k. They're sacrificing some cost reductions (that are unlocked by the unboxed method and the "revolutionary" but untested new manufacturing methods), but they gain significant speed to get to...

Elon just wanted to push the paper hands out of the stock, I guess. I'm still here, unfazed. If we bottomed, great call dl!

My current position for ER: 4:1 -150c/-150p. (So one sold put for every 4 sold calls) Reasoning: I'm leaning bearish to flat SP after ER. If we moon, I can manage the cc's easily. Plenty of "empty slots" to roll/split/whatever. (Because I also have shares and JAN2026 200calls to ride back up...

By now Elon chimed in and said he is not betting the company on autonomy. He is just heavily aiming for autonomy. This is not new information. On Autonomy Day he said "[autonomy] is basically our entire cost structure". If you didn't sell your shares then, why should you now? Also, I can't...

I said "all of a sudden". In other words, what has changed in the last few weeks. You bring up an Elon quote from 2022. I know what he said. But in the last week he has not confirmed any of the things being thrown around.

I was wondering why everyone thinks Elon is betting the company on robotaxi/autonomy all of a sudden, so I: - read the last 25 pages of this thread (consisting of mostly panicky "WTF is Elon doing?" versus a minority of "CHAAARGE" approval-posts) - searched the interwebs for the source of these...

Does FSD-without-navigation just drive straight (when possible)? (Like Autopilot) Or does it take left turns, right turns, etc, seemingly at random?

Would be hilarious if the concept robotaxi uneiled on 8/8 has: - LIDAR - 16 cameras, current spots and two cameras on all corners - radar, front back and sides - ultrasonic sensors - HD maps - Nvidia chip "Coming soon"

Much easier solution: the robotaxi keeps the meter running until the fare closes all doors/trunk/frunk at destination. Simple and effective.

I did define it: humans overall. In other words, better than the average crash/injury/death statistics.

Probably. But the gist of it rings true. Every next hardware set will be more capable. Unless you believe camera placement caps performance.

Autonomous vehicles won't ever be perfect, nor should they. As long as the accident rate is better than humans overall we're good. Elon stated many times that HW3 will probably max out at 2x better than human. HW4 5x, HW5 10x and so on. Which will be monetizable? Depends on the whishes of the...

And autopark and regular summon would be appreciated for us Tesla Vision owners. Already have my car for 18 months without these "coming soon" features. Yes, I am bitter about it.

So the legend goes...

FSDbeta 12.3 seems safe enough and smooth enough. Let's get that free month trial for North America out of the way so us Europeans can get our hands on it too! (/jealous)

If it's any consolation, I rarely post but I did act upon your warning. Sold many calls last week, yesterday bought them back since I had +70% profits in about two-three trading days. Now sitting on my hands until the bottom. A sincere thank you.

Amen to that. I'm here since the beginning of the thread and am still a noob.

STO some 3/22 $200cc's @ $11.0 when SP was around $204. Also holding: 3/1 $210cc's 3/8 $215cc's 3/28 $200cc's 3/28 $215cc's All of these were opened this week around $203-$205 levels, but over different days. They are breakeven to slightly green right now. I see us dropping to the 190's...

Wat niet mag onderschat worden in de huidige TSLA waardering is de macro-economische situatie. Meer bepaald inflatie, hoge rentes en bij veel beleggers koudwatervrees door een vermoeden van een komende beurscrash voor er terug beterschap komt. Eens de kentering komt (bijv. doordat de Federal...

"The machine that parks the machine."

Regarding Roadster 2.0 I'm thinking maybe they have four rear wheels (two wheels side by side on the left-rear, and two wheels side by side on the right-rear of the car), to greatly increase friction. Yes, you get more rolling resistance, but if the car is very light only four wheels is not a...

Ooh don't worry, BYD is taking over Europe first. (I see more and more on Belgian roads each day, and advertizing in the streets) Hopefully Tesla can get their low cost car out soonish.

You're lucky based in the UK. If I had to wager, I'd say UK gets FSD way before EU. (which is frustrating since I'm only located +/- 200 kilometers away (Belgium)) :)

That is not what the proposed UNECE DCAS regulations stipulate. In general, this is how the system should perform actions (that are not just lane keeping): A manoeuvre shall only be initiated if the driver is not detected to be disengaged, and (a) has commanded the system to perform the...

And the rest of them.

Went down the rabbit hole so for future reference I decided to post these. All credit goes to https://x.com/CernBasher?s=20

Interesting post with a great list. Also the poster tweets pics of all the different bots. We should really hold a yearly Humanoid Bot Cage match to keep up with the progress on different bots. (Robot Wars 2.0 ? But more exciting than robo-lawnmowers trying to flip each other over)