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  1. Sean Wagner

    2024; Tesla's Tipping Point?

    It depends if Tesla's mission of hastening the transition to sustainable mobility still is a thing. Driving down the cost of EVs' main component, ie. the battery pack, needs continued attention and investment. Is Tesla not doing the hard and seemingly unglamorous problem solving anymore? That...
  2. Sean Wagner

    Out of Spec doing a Cybertruck vs. R1T vs. Lightning vs. Silverado EV cross country race. Who wins?

    Whatever happened to the race? I can't find anything on how it ended.
  3. Sean Wagner

    Coronavirus

    These numbers fail the plausibility check. Look again and think.
  4. Sean Wagner

    Coronavirus

    Thank you. Just picking out KY, OR, and UT, all with similar (small) populations and near identical testing rates is quite revelatory.
  5. Sean Wagner

    Coronavirus

    The FT just ran a very interesting article concerning the two adjacent northern Italian regions of Lombardy and Veneto, with the latter doing markedly better seemingly because they tried to keep as many people tested positive at home rather than infecting the hospital staff. Quotes: ... As...
  6. Sean Wagner

    Coronavirus

    Sean Wagner said: ↑ The last lockdown paces the nation. This is not the time for "feral" government. I can try. So many variables. It presupposes a population still widely susceptile to the disease. And it also presupposes that somewhat effective measures on the individual level are possible...
  7. Sean Wagner

    Coronavirus

    Without speaking to the post at hand, I'm sorry to say the FT's Alphaville section is - and I mean it just so - among the rabid, positively gushing, highly biased purveyors of anti-Tesla blurbs. They will dig far and wide to "unearth" just about anything that sounds right to them, while being...
  8. Sean Wagner

    Coronavirus

    I know that feeling! Today it was my cherished giant Soissons beans that go into soups and chilis and what-have-yous. Previously a specific liquid soap, hand sanitizer [finally after weeks and weeks without], and of course toilet paper. There must have been contingency plans for just such...
  9. Sean Wagner

    Coronavirus

    No first world country tolerates the regulatory jungle that has allowed US opioid addiction toe flourish. It's that simple. I like these rule-of-thumb crutches when it comes to validating data. Worth keeping in mind. Just so. The relative cost of preparing for a bad-case scenario applies...
  10. Sean Wagner

    Market politics

    Or rephrased very short-term thinking.
  11. Sean Wagner

    Market politics

    Excellent information and presentation from the FT. Ile-de-France is the region around Paris.
  12. Sean Wagner

    Market politics

    Every state should be preparing right now. There's no getting around CV, and national coordination is essential if this isn't to drag on and on. Source Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS The latest data do show California putting a lid on the increase in cases, if the excellent FT graphic is to...
  13. Sean Wagner

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Important to note this graph shows new cases per day, if I understand correctly. But at least it looks like a linear progression now. We will hopefully see this come down over the next one or two weeks.
  14. Sean Wagner

    Coronavirus

    The next highly contagious disease to hit us will be transmitted by kitten pix and lead to constipation. As well as strange cravings for extra-stinky cat food. Thank you for bringing that to my attention. The latest day's numbers are still incomplete, I gather. However: Verteilung nach Alter...
  15. Sean Wagner

    Coronavirus

    Here's a small, integrated higher-power 5W part by Luminus, based in CA. Just an example of what I think might come in handy. Maybe the UV light could simply augment a filter's capabilities rather than trying to zap the virus in a dedicated chamber...
  16. Sean Wagner

    Coronavirus

    That's precisely who the article in the NYT I referred to maybe a week ago [and tried to find again] was about. Had the same impression that this man understands the challenge, means business, and has clear goals. The way I understood it his organization usually is tasked with organizing...
  17. Sean Wagner

    Coronavirus

    I don't know the intensity required to reliably kill off CV. Yes, it may turn out to be a brain fart. If it's very high and needed a lot of power, I was thinking there could be a switch/proximity sensor that triggered the well-shielded UV lights. Might require a spiral chamber and radial pump...
  18. Sean Wagner

    Coronavirus

    The health commissioner of Lombardy mentioned that people in their 40s and 50s were in intensive care too. Even if just 1% of that age group require it all at once to survive the present system will not be able to cope. At all. Young people are not invincible, warns WHO head ... Speaking at a...
  19. Sean Wagner

    Coronavirus

    #ITALY Sadly, there's been a slight rise in deaths again, to 475. Giulio Gallera, Lombardy's health commissioner [not sure that's the correct translation for "assessore"], said in an interview with La Reppublica that people in their 40's and 50's were requiring ventilators too. He's called for a...
  20. Sean Wagner

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Seconded. I'll go over their last statement again too to aid in my comprehension and better understand the conversation, as so many denizens of this thread are far better placed to expound on this than I. I do think Tesla's relative [!] financial health should one day reveal itself beyond a...
  21. Sean Wagner

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    European automotive factories are shutting down while stateside the UAW is demanding the same right now. UAW presses Detroit 3 for 2-week plant shutdown, sets deadline tonight Assuming outside suppliers keep up, every day Tesla goes on cranking out new cars - even if the pace has to be adjusted...
  22. Sean Wagner

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Clearly so. But it's evidently an essential part of any solution. Testing absolutely everyone is the strategy successfully implemented in the little Italian town - especially important since that's the only way to discover carriers with no symptoms. As per Prof. Crisanti's quote above.
  23. Sean Wagner

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The way to keep Fremont running is crystal clear: test everyone, repeat. Aggressive testing helps Italian town cut new coronavirus cases to zero Experiment in Vò underscores WHO’s message to ‘test, test, test’ Donato Paolo Mancini and Clive Cookson in London 4 HOURS AGO ... “In the UK...
  24. Sean Wagner

    Coronavirus

    Quote .../ In a telephone conference with the heads of big engineering companies on Monday evening, Boris Johnson, the prime minister, called for 30,000 [respirators] to be made within two weeks, according to two executives with knowledge of the discussion. Over the weekend, Matt Hancock, the...
  25. Sean Wagner

    Coronavirus

    Latest Italian numbers from the government's Protezione Civile. Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS White - deceased. May their families find peace and a measure of acceptance. Green - released. Obviously, this data is less influenced by overall testing numbers. Here's to the Italian "lockdown"...
  26. Sean Wagner

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    As I've written in the Corona-thread, according to an article in the NYT [Kindle version], testing in the US is supposed to be massively ramped up during this week, with [from memory] 2'000 private labs using automated equipment participating in the federally organized effort. We shall see...
  27. Sean Wagner

    Coronavirus

    According to an article in the NYT [Kindle edition], massive testing capacities will be rolled out this week in the US. From memory [!], 2000 private labs with automated analysis. If this has been posted already, please indulge me - I think this is highly significant.
  28. Sean Wagner

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Madadayo (まあだだよ, Mādadayo, "Not Yet") is a 1993 Japanese comedy-drama film. It is the thirtieth and final film to be completed by Akira Kurosawa. Can't see the whites in their eyes yet. Seesaw will not be over tomorrow. Buy in tranches over the next months [sic] whenever you like. Remember that...
  29. Sean Wagner

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    "like stepping on the accelerator after you hit a tree"
  30. Sean Wagner

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Slowing down can be just as good an exercise as speeding up, albeit with somewhat different and hopefully temporary results. The story is all over. Reported on the excellent German public radio too. Will try to find out more in the morning. Edit: it certainly sounds [!] like atrocious...
  31. Sean Wagner

    Coronavirus

    The stupidity is beyond my comprehension. Even if it's just absence of mind. Edit: verbatim, a "vaccine exclusively for America". This would not have happened to any other administration - people would simply not have believed it. See for instance Aktuelle Nachrichten online - FAZ.NET
  32. Sean Wagner

    Coronavirus

    Top news on German public radio [et al.] is that the Trump administration has been trying to buy exclusive access to a vaccine being developed by a local company. They publicly and summarily refused, reiterating it is meant "for the world". I am only relaying the information, but the reporting...
  33. Sean Wagner

    Coronavirus

    Thank you to those of you who provided some context to the graph I linked to, I realize how important it is to keep things sane. Nevertheless, the numbers are stark and I'm having some trouble with the abstraction. As expected. The best we can do is slow down the speed of propagation while...
  34. Sean Wagner

    Coronavirus

    Screencap:
  35. Sean Wagner

    Coronavirus

    Same thing here in my very international corner of not-so-reflected-and-rational Switzerland this afternoon [I purposefully went later to avoid the crowds]. No sugar. No flour. No fresh veggies!! I asked - all been bought today. Don't even mention toilet paper, that's been rare for a while now...
  36. Sean Wagner

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    A resignation at the top would do it. Nothing else attacks the root cause.
  37. Sean Wagner

    Coronavirus

    Hellos from Basel. Seeing what's happening in Italy, and knowing up to 10% of cases require intensive care and respirators, it seems utterly foolhardy to me not to plan for separate wards and a much higher caseload than usual. Also, the total absence of disinfectant for purchase is a critical...
  38. Sean Wagner

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Also capitalizing on an excellent opportunity. Boeing conversely couldn't resist paying out a dividend - and has now drawn down a new 11 or 13 billion USD [can't recall] credit line in one fell swoop. The obvious inference is they'll be needing more money.
  39. Sean Wagner

    Coronavirus

    Sadly as expected. But to read about it still leaves a hollow in the stomach. Hospital beds can be added quickly, ideally in separate wards. It's respirators that are urgently needed, I think. Taiwan got a lot of things right, as per a post above - they prepared well after SARS and acted...
  40. Sean Wagner

    Coronavirus

    From inside a hospital in Bergamo, Italy, quote one part of the thread (underline added): · Mar 9 12/ Reasons for the access always the same: fever and breathing difficulties, fever and cough, respiratory failure. Radiology reports always the same: bilateral interstitial pneumonia, bilateral...
  41. Sean Wagner

    Shorting Oil, Hedging Tesla

    FT, yesterday // Corporate bonds Saudi-Russia price war puts $110bn of US energy bonds on the brink Debt issued by US producers plummets in price, mirroring crude ... Almost 12 per cent of the $936bn of bonds issued by US oil and gas companies are were trading on Monday with a yield more...
  42. Sean Wagner

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I just have to pipe up and say thank you for this one.
  43. Sean Wagner

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Yes, well. They're called Cars Not Burning Coal for a reason, right? Although Cramer's Not Been Complicit as of late.
  44. Sean Wagner

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Slightly exaggerated: the more innovation and rapid evolution is required, the harder it will be for putative rivals-without-a-mission to simply throw money around and scale. I prefer Elon and his team of extraordinary engineers to have some medium-heavy lifting to do. And yes, without a good...
  45. Sean Wagner

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    And while I'm at it, this does seem germane to the posts above: Ford Europe looks to have two Mach-E's on tour, and it seems like a pretty impromptu thing. One German dealer in the small town of Bad Neustadt had a week's time to organize an unveiling ["I had planned on two days of skiing"]...
  46. Sean Wagner

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Absolutely. They need to finally enter a positive feedback loop, while battery cell production has to scale for costs to continue to fall. The market is too big, diverse, and changeable for one company to do it all. Incidentally, I think the recent "revelation" by Mercedes that Tesla buying...
  47. Sean Wagner

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Very interested in the veracity of the shorter range e-tron 50 claim, as I've been wondering what the minimal exigency for the range of a "full" car in Europe might be [always presupposing decent recharging options]. That's one reason I've been watching Audi e-tron sales. Maybe it's no...
  48. Sean Wagner

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    That's an excellent writeup cum interactive visualizations. Thank you! Am just playing around with the tool [under "Immunity"] that combines Immunity, transmission rate, and spontaneous activation rate.
  49. Sean Wagner

    Time To Sell The Automotive Unit

    Boardrooms and executive suites across the automotive world would break out in spontaneous cheers, song and dance. Your suggestion gives me the willies. That being said, I welcome the occasion to think about scenarios for Tesla's trajectory that further its mission statement. Toyota is a very...