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I have been a pretty disciplined stock buyer the last 3 years and I have managed to net an average basis of 240.. so I am down about 15% in an incredible bull market. What has factchecking been a valuable source of again? Should I have taken his ‘here are 10 reasons why what Elon just did is...

Most costs aren’t fixed costs. I Dunno. Maybe a guy that sold puts against one of the worst performing stocks in the market ought to show a little more humility?

Elon is tweeting a lot less these days. Is that good or bad according to the factchecking variety of counterfactual history.. nevermind I already know.

I get the importance of scale. I’m all on board for apple buying Tesla and also ford or gm and putting together a powerhouse. Unfortunately apple appears to be run by morons. But your answer doesn’t really explain anything to me because it doesn’t help to situate the exact price point. If...

My fundamental question is why Tesla doesn’t raise prices on sr about 2k$. Given the relative lack of profitability they are serving these cars up, a narrow increase like that which would result in fewer cars sold would still likely result in more profit overall. It is clear they are going for...

It’s rather important to keep in mind that accuracy in prediction is the fundamental measure of intelligence. You are keen to provide explanations of events after they have happened. Most people are looking for comfort in their decisions and if they are long in Tesla you are a great masseuse of...

Yeah that's accurate. Sorry. You have to admit it isn’t very rewarding to bring opinions to this forum that are even slightly out of favor of dogma though. Closer you get to truth the more hostility.

Thats funny. You would be surprised by how much I know about machine learning. I was writing bare metal CUDA and SSD library optimization code for factor analysis, multilayer nn libraries, and even generative restrictive boltzmann machines in 2012+ before any of today's kiddie python libraries...

Duh. Not a burner account. You contribute a lot. I will try to take what is useful but I really suggest people be careful because the rationalization is very strong with you.

The funny part here is I could theoretically eviscerate you but I'm not sure why I should bother.

I am confident in two things: 1) anyone remotely curious and looking at the financials will quickly discover the COGS for the model 3 is remarkably high, and in line with all the claims I have made with little math required or little assumption required. It takes almost no time to investigate so...

You are making a falsifiable prediction here -- do you want to stick to it or call it a poetic extravagance? I find you an interesting fellow because your mind summons evidence impressively but usually for obvious and predetermined ends and the conspiracy talk is frequent and always lingers...

Imagine some ad hoc scenario where there are 12 random pedestrians, half look old and half look drunk, some with dogs on leashes and some with children, and 50 cars in various lanes and directions, and a complicated physical intersection.. the human brain is capable of making impressive...

If I worked at Tesla in the prestigious autopilot division, where I have the ability to go anywhere I please and make 300k$+ per year, I too would be aggravated my upside is diluted by residential solar and other silly ADHD projects.

He isn't all that far off but unit volume is the equivalent of talking about page views in the dotcom bubble. Tesla is in a regime of increasing delivery count while reducing the value per delivery. This complexity isn't remotely handled here.

It's empirical. No one knows including Elon. A specific kind of Brute force algorithm worked for chess but the algorithm was insufficient for Go or poker or etc. State of the art neural nets are not capable of implementing human level abstract intelligence, which comes into play when...

Tesla releasing a wireless charger for phones in the console gap at 125$ a pop. This is the right idea. Humorously Fred spends a good amount of time advocating the cheaper non OEM version on amazon. Apparently he won’t be bought easily. He fights for the people! I wonder if Tesla will sell an...

I agree with this and it is perplexing. Mazda sells its entire 3 starting at 22k$. I wonder if Tesla simply is unaware that this needs explaining. If they can give a strong believable reason why the reported numbers are high by 4k$+ they would basically eradicate this downswing overnight imo.

I went and looked up on the Waybackmachine the subscriber count on the TeslaMotors subreddit. Basically it took an elbow up at the launch of the model 3 and has been growing with extremely low variance +500/day. That's a big number I think, nearly as much as model 3 production, but it's strange...

It's a good thing that Tesla competes against the companies it competes against. I remember once trying to get BMW's pricing and options and when I got redirected to BMW USA it just 404'd... for like a week. I always get disagrees when I'm right about something fundamental so I will here...

Funding Secured. 220.

That's not accurate. I have seen plenty of shorts fully aware of this margin picture I am describing. You will frequently see on Reddit or Twitter references to the sr+ being effectively nil margin, or they will reference declining ASPs which is also a reference to same problem. Saying there is...

Yes. I took s/x up close to 85k because it was the only way to get the actual gross margin on model 3 high enough to hit 15% which is explicitly claimed. So by looking at revenue you further close in on the answer. I've actually been favoring Tesla by giving them a 50% implied incremental...

Still no ships past #12 on the docket. Is that it for the quarter?

Keep in mind there is a gulf between this estimate and the current reality of about 10k$ because the SEC reported figure margin is instead 15% today on an approximately 53k$ average price point.

I agree and I have yet to see even the shape of a valid counterargument. Elon has mentioned that they might do it in the future but it will be entertaining and informational rather than 'deceptive'. I wonder if he believes that Tesla earns points in customer reputation by the fact that they...

Yeah the Munro estimate (edit: also the German report from DaveT so that's two sources which is more comforting) is interesting because that certainly is an appealing number and unlike what is actually being printed on the income statement currently. Resolving the discrepancy, particularly by...

Tesla is squirrelly. If you look at how they frame autopilot related safety numbers it is particularly obvious how they are happy to distort statistics. I don't think the actual financial reported numbers allow for an extrapolation that the SR+ costs 35k$ to build but I'd be happy to see the...

omg. This is how ignorance is created right here. It's amazing. You have an accurate income model on the other thread but you still doubt this number???!!? What do you think the SR+ costs and what is your justification?

Ok, but I think others might be interested in things other than your comfort level.

Bingo. Single most important fact right now by leagues. Do not rely on social forums to handle inconvenient facts well. Also, math intuition has an uneven distribution so many don't realize how much this matters.

Tesla should definitely build the first model Y line at Fremont. It allows for reuse of employees that have direct experience building the 3. It also allows for potentially replacing a model 3 line devoted to SR+ production (not very profitable) with a model Y LR/P line (highly profitable) for...

Tesla typically says: 1) Electric is safer than gas (insert manipulative statistic). 2) No one was harmed in this incident. 3) We design these cars so that in case of fire it is easy to exit the vehicle in time. 4) This is an older car. These problems or problems like these have already been...

This number has been retrievable from the financial statements since model 3 was at high volume (last 3 quarters). You just have to take the income statement and factor out the S/X and you get the numbers for the model 3 which were approximately: 53.3k$ for ASP, 56.4k$ for ASP + GHG credits, and...

Yeah -- I was being cautious and had them pencilled as stuck to 100k for every year going forward. oops. But you can actually boil the entire Tesla story down to a single variable and that's the cost of the model 3 to build. COGS is running about 44k$-45k$ per unit right now and that is nowhere...

They didn't sell 25k P100D S/X models to California in Q1. There is a demand issue for these models in California. What definition of demand are you using?

That would be about a 100:1 return on money spent (going by gross profit). I don't know if it would be that effective. I would simply argue for empirical A/B testing. They can hammer a single US state with ads, and then compare the impact to surrounding states. Run the experiment, right?

I mean it's pretty simple. Every company in the world advertises. What makes Tesla so special? Elon says..? Is he a master of human psychology? The weight of the argument is strongly on the side of advertising. My wunderkind stock, the only one that allows me to lose so much money on TSLA, is...

Yeah this bothers me. Elon is being ideological about it. Advertising likely has some low-hanging fruit and the first 10 million dollars could go a long way. Most contrarian positions are wrong, they are just extremely profitable when you pick one that happens to be right. I don't see any deep...

Seems to me however that there will be a high correlation between 'unsafe for a person to go to sleep in the car' and 'unsafe to other vehicles and pedestrians'. So I'm not clear how much easier it is to build a car to drive empty then to drive with passengers.

Could do a mockup of the doom space marine but I'm too lazy.

Have to admit I didn't see this coming. Good one Trump, you got me ! I'll take all this tariff business if in exchange they bring back the $7,500 incentive across the board. But alas.. I don't get a say in the matter.

It appears Tesla is selling sr+ and perf models and skipping lr awd in many of the newer markets(RHD?). The perf model is slotting in at the lr awd price so therefore discounted. A lot of strange missing combinations of white interior and tire size and so on. I dunno about all this...

It was like a ditsy party girl going on about smoking weed on the job at Fremont and long shifts and no toilet paper and begging for follows. Almost certainly a troll except there was a pretty convincing photo of an employee badge which I bet was discovered in a dumpster or stolen etc.

China registration site is still running slow.. kinda odd given the simplicity of the page. It’s obvious Tesla is doing this just to increase sales. So pathetic. They claim they are supply limited but then why do they keep taking orders for cars if they have no supply? Makes no sense. I think...

They must be co-hosting that order system on the same server as TMC... Vincent is saying 3k$ deposit. Could end up being a fairly significant cash item for quarter. Hey why don't we do the pickup reveal and snag another 100m$ too? Would be sweet to throw down +500m$ free cash for q.

My intuition is that Tesla should stick with higher price points. Every 1k$ is a big deal on the SR+ for profitability. You can't listen to people when they complain. People rarely know what they are talking about, especially when describing their own behavior/preferences.

Notice there is no evidence or claim in this article that Barclay's did this BECAUSE of the email.

So we're still at 12 boats on the docket. Those can all get to their destinations before EOQ, but I'm not sure any more could. It'd be close at any rate. Anyone have the guts to predict no #13?