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Yup!

That's my understanding. Basis of $87M goes to Tesla. Payroll is 1.45% * $113M or $1.6M . Fully diluted shares will decrease by ~127k due to early termination of comp plans (assuming performance didn't vest).

I broke down and put all Drew's SEC forms in a spreadsheet. First, a critical point: over half of his remaining compensation package was from a Dec 2020 plan and had a cost basis of $143.61. So knock any headline numbers in half and concider that 616k of those options had no net value based on...

Yeah, I wasn't sure in his timing, but checked and he posted going short March 13. Possibly that was with puts though, he supposedly made a video, not that I care... 😬

Cool, thanks! Those switches are not used when installed on the vehicle. Likely, they are normally open (inactive) switches used with the 2x7 headers to reset/ program the microcontrollers the first time. Or possibly inputs for a module self test routine. That said, if contamination/ corrosion...

You can be sure that they do. 2023: sales of 1,808,581 on production of 1,845,985 2024 Q1: sales of 386,810 on production of 433,371 To match 2023 requires1,421,771 sales or 473,924 a quarter (5% under 500k, but close). Ignoring inventory drawdown, Tesla exceeded that production rate in both Q2...

Oh! Got Photos?

Form 144 is required when selling more than 5,000 shares or $50k of stock within a 3 month period as an executive officer, director, or affiliate level person. The filer must intend to sell the shares in the near-term, but it doesn't mean they have already sold them (not a Form 4). Taking a...

And you lose unexercised options when you depart the company, so it was now or never.

Shanghai is likely material flow limited, Austin is not. X and S use the same GA line. There was no reason to put 3 and Y on the same lines. They had staggered introductions and volumes did not support sharing. With softer demand and dual Y domestic plants, Austin can take an efficiency hit to...

Joe T's service is 250A as reported by him. I agree, I don't understand why Cybertruck Powershare would require a service upgrade. Worst case, split into two panels to get below the Gateway 200A limit and use Dynamic Charging to prevent an overload at night.

For further clarity, battery meaning pack+accessory electronics, not the cells & BMS. Much easier to implement, but agree not likely to happen. Cybertruck is leveraging its AC power out feature.

I'm hoping "magical" was autocarrot messing up "marginal" and not snark... HP=TQ*RPM/5252. Motor construction, gear ratio, and inverter max current set max torque at the wheels. Peak torque = peak_stator_current * torque_per_amp. 0 RPM gives max possible torque due to no back EMF to deal with...

%100 ! 😉 More germane to the thread: Regarding Robotaxi, 8/8 is unveil/ plan for manufacturing which will be built with the unboxed process on new lines at Austin no earlier than late 2025 (and aligned with FSD unsupervised). These lines can also make a lower cost human driven variant, but...

OMG dude! Burned? Seriously? It's $2.7B of finished inventory that didn't get delivered yet and $1B of AI compute. That's Q2 FCF/Revenue/Profit on infrastructure, not smoke.

That's not how it works. You have to request the credit and the dealer is supposed to give it to you, or, at your request, apply it as additional down payment. https://www.irs.gov/pub/taxpros/fs-2024-14.pdf

They had previously said 2024 was sold out and since they haven't opened non-Foundation orders yet, I figured it was a safe assumption.

I don't agree with that interpretation. Taxis are currently profitable with a human driver and bog standard ICE vehicles. If anything, a revenue generating vehicle can absorb higher cost. Robotaxi would have crazy high demand and so Tesla is optimizing the rate at which a factory can churn...

Robotaxi's cost isn't the driver, the architecture is along with timing as you mentioned. Robo and NextGen were planned to both be unboxed, but the climate shifted so NextGen (now MidGen?) was pulled forward and hybridized to use existing infrastructure. Robo and NextGen² will continue...

You're correct, Elon said no. 33:18

You didn't see the produced vs delivered vehicle differential and think to yourself, "That inventory cost has to come from somewhere? " Using Q4 average vehicle costs: 46.5k vehicles @ 36k average COGS = $1.7B. 2023 had the same combined negative flows across Q1,Q2,Q3 with only Q4 having a...

Have the Wall Connector installed on the backed-up side of things, ideally on a 60 Amp circuit.

That was down the road. Like the $2.6B in extra inventory from Q1 they have mostly sold by now.

2024 is all Foundation series and may spill over into 2025. That should cover most/ all of the ramp.

The point is that it doesn't take extra space, it uses the existing lines.

And Clean Vehicle Credit eligible! Which makes it cheaper than LR AWD. Slightly more than Performance Y

Whose long term, mine or Tesla's?

Disagree, I am entirely to blame for my current position. Looked at one way, I rode the train to the ATH through no efforts of my own and then rode it right back down again (with ups and downs on the way). I've only lost what I barely earned/ had claim to and am still better off than when I...

S&P 500 weighting is float adjusted market cap. Tesla SP going down does most of the work of reballancing. S&P 500 reballancing occurred in March, next event is June. Straight 1:1 tracking funds also can't front run (see also closing cross). Independent or other-weighted funds can, of course...

You seem to have no idea what you are talking about.

My understanding is the Semi factory is quite different from previous vehicles due to the size of supplier sourced subassemblies. Much less tooling needed with correspondingly less depreciation/ fixed cost. Also lends itself to production rate adjustment via labor scaling.

Yeah, so did I (first hour, sub 50k reservation number) and lots of others. And now I'm waiting on my ordered Foundation Cyberbeast (with long term shareholder boost for whatever that's worth)

I'm guessing you ordered Foundation AWD? Cyberbeast started with a mid-late 2024 delivery date. I configured in Dec, shareholder acceleration, and have no estimate on delivery. The bulk of Tesla's fleet has been young and in warranty until recently. With minimal maintenance requirements, how...

I don't follow... $1,300*484,500 cars = $630 million / 10% = $6.3B initial labor cost. Total OpEx is only $2.4B so was production labor > $3.9B a quarter? Total headcount was ~140k, 10% is 14k $630 million / 14k = $45k / quarter or $180k average fully burdened annual salary. Seems high.

NHTSA would disagree with that. They can force a recall with its associated stop sale implications (known non-compliant new vehicles cannot be sold). That manufacturers initiate the recall should not be seen as the regulators lacking teeth. Had this been the original design, I doubt anyone...

Oh no! It actually takes more like 35 seconds! Possibly a minute with prep and clean up.

How's a 10 second fix for the Cybertruck recall sound?

Not at this point, shareholder of record date was April 15th.

Gross vehicle profit would take an immediate hit due to increased warranty reserves based on accounting firm predictions of failure rates. Given the bathtub curve of failures, and degradation in general, that may not be fiscally beneficial. Reduced replacement cost and increased real world...

I like the imagery, but I don't know that the explanation matches the physics. Yes, the outbound transit time is less, but does that actually mean anything? Potential energy (Pe) is mass*height*gravity, there is no accounting for the time it took to get to that altitude. Work is force*distance...

Query: Does it say they are a major supplier, or that Tesla is a major client?

Yeah, from Google Translate it's one supplier (Tansi Auto News) According to new car and new technology news, "Tesla has recently cut production significantly. In the next six months, our supply will be cut by 30%." Recently, an internal manager of a domestic Tesla exclusive supplier Li Tao...

Gonna have to agree with ya. I reread the legalese and they do include unsold vehicles. Thanks for the correction! "The total number of vehicles or items of equipment potentially containing the defect or noncompliance, and where available the number of vehicles or items of equipment in each...

I don't think so since the net work done stays the same. The rocket just gets more of the energy. Also, it's a momentum transfer and not exhaust as a single thing exerting force, but many small pushes. Do collisions have a distance? Or I could just go read the answer...

There isn't more energy, just a different distribution. In the external frame, the exhaust lost more energy and more of the work was imparted to the rocket. >>Before approaching the planet, my 1 kg rocket is moving 10 m/s. >>Kinetic energy of 50 Joules. Call it half propellant. 25 joules in...

Wait, I thought I made it up, that comment wasn't direct at you.

The more I think about it, the less I like that analogy. Work is a quantity, that we can get the same value doesn't mean the narrative is correct. The above math barf shows the change is in the extenal energy of the exhaust and rocket and the amount of work apportioned to each. Two stationary...

There is a line between pedantic and obtuse. [Edit: And I live on the optimistic side 😉] If it wasn't a supplied assembly, the supplier would not be listed. The filing calls out the assembly which doesn't have subparts

Doesn't mean they weren't either... Ramps increase, deliveries lag production, and only delivered vehicles are counted in a recall. 1,000 pack per week report was March 20th, 2 weeks before end of quarantine period. The filing was 2 weeks after the quarantine period.

The filing https://static.nhtsa.gov/odi/rcl/2024/RCLRPT-24V276-7026.PDF