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It is clear from the opinion he expressed that Jim Keller has not actually worked on problems of autonomous vehicles or robotics in general, though he clearly knows how to design silicon. Neither had Elon, in any serious way, when he made those pronouncements in 2016.

That seems like a realistic time frame, except I'd add that they may achieve "feature complete" on the current generation of hardware but the current generation will always and forever be level 2. The next generation might be level 3 or higher, years from now, and they will not retrofit anybody...

Do you mean forcibly installing updates, or forcibly causing your car to download an update? I would be shocked if they remotely installed an update since that takes the car out of commission for up to an hour. What if you needed your car? Downloading sure, installing never.

Now might be a good time to remember that the infamous 2016 FSD demo video posted on their website (and still posted last time I checked) proclaimed that the driver was only there "for legal reasons" and that all that remained to be done before FSD would be released was "validation and...

How far you have come.

Please see my comment on this just a couple of comments up. (a) It used to be that they staged but did not install updates when you took your car in for service (or even just got on wifi at the dealership, and also (b) this has not been true for a year at least, according to the experts on this...

It used to be that taking it in for service was a way to get the update staged to your car. Which is to say, downloaded and ready to install. They would never actually install it; you had to do that when you got the car home. This is no longer true from what I understand. Taking your car in...

Other manufacturers do not introduce new unannounced features with software updates. They only fix bugs and they don't introduce serious regressions in major vehicle features, such as Fleet Speed. We can argue all day about which you prefer but no thank you that's not what I'm here for. If...

If there is a safety issue with a software version they should issue a recall notice. Without a recall notice there should be no forced update. And in the past, there has been no forced update -- I know there are people on the forums here still running V8. I did not intend to start a thread...

Also, many people prefer the V8 user interface to V9 or V10 and have kept their cars intentionally on that version.

This has not been their policy in all the time I've had the car up until now. And I've been very unlucky to have my car in for warranty service many times. I don't want my car updated because updates are often buggy when they first come out. Also they sneak in mis-features like Fleet Speed...

My car was in service yesterday for things unrelated to software updates, and while it was there they installed 2020.4.1. I have had them stage (i.e., download) updates while in service before, but never before have they actually installed an update. I thought it was against their policy...

So after literally a year of fighting Tesla on this and methodically gathering data that shows there is a clear difference between my 2017Q3 Model S (MCU1/HW2.5) and my 2018Q3 model 3 (MCU2/HW2.5), they finally determined that the difference is absolutely there but that the Model S is...

Cruise, like everybody pursuing L4 other than Tesla, does not use lane lines to figure out where the lanes are. It uses 3-D maps and localization -- if you have a very precise map, and you know where you are on that map with some precision, you do not need lane lines to know where the lane is...

And if you want to buy a scrap of paper for a few dollars that has a possibility of making you a millionaire, I think a lottery ticket is the only option. The current generation of Tesla vehicles will never exceed L3 autonomy without extensive hardware retrofitting, and Tesla is certainly not...

I'm sorry, but "orders of magnitude more intelligent" is nonsensical.

You don't have to assume this when you get to experience it first hand every time you get in your car.

Lane changes have not been the problem for me. Knowing what lane to be in when has always been the problem. Has this improved? Well, lane changes are also a problem, because around here there are interchanges where you need to cut across 3-4 lanes of traffic in 0.5 miles in order to make your...

Is this an owners forum or an investor's forum? When I handed Tesla $90k I didn't get equity in return. I got a car. I'm not an investor, I'm a customer. The reason Tesla gets away with this crap is that so many of the early adopters see themselves as investors rather than customers.

As you point out, AlphaGo solved a vastly simpler problem. And it was solved with vastly more powerful hardware. So a vastly better hardware applied to vastly simpler problem just manages to beat the humans. Just let that sink in for a bit.

There are several problems with this. One is that the AP cameras are right up against the glass, but their lenses are focused beyond the glass, so they can't see what's directly on the glass in the same way that our eyes do. Another is that those cameras only see a tiny part of the windshield...

Nice to see we're starting to get some tangible results from Elon getting more directly involved in the software development!

Because it thinks you are on the ramp, not on the highway. It's wrong, but it thinks you're on the ramp so it applies the Fleet Speed setting for the ramp, not for the highway. This happens near ramps and also sometimes near access roads. Or if you drive on an urban highway -- as I do for my...

Why do you think this is not Fleet Speed? It was introduced around a year ago and this is exactly the way it behaves -- it changes your set speed. Various other things can cause the vehicle to brake without changing the set speed (phantom braking) but only Fleet Speed or a speed limit change...

It's not related to the suggested speed sign. It's getting the ramp speed from its map -- specifically it is the "Fleet Speed" information from the map, which is the average speed that ramp is taken at by Tesla drivers. This is itself a stupid idea that none of us ever agreed to, but not as...

Don't forget the shorts, the shills, and the trolls. Personally, I'm a "the current glass utilization is 47.3% +/-3%" sort of person.

Lack of any news is itself informative.

Perhaps this means they have decoupled Fleet Speed and TACC, and now Fleet Speed is only active when NOA is active. That would actually make me very happy since I use TACC all the time and and NOA never, since NOA is quite useless IMO.

Related thread: "Fleet Speed" (mis-)feature in 2019.8.6+

This is the "Fleet Speed" feature. What's probably happening is that your car thinks you took the exit you just passed. Happens to me all the time in my Q3 2017 Model S (HW2.5/MCU1) and hardly ever in my Q3 2018 Model 3 (HW2.5/MCU1). I have a case open with Tesla about it but it is very...

Schedule the service appointment. See what happens. Then call the 800# back and tell them what the service guys said, be prepared for them to tell you to book a service appointment. Or maybe they'll offer to "open a case" for you!

Really? You're going to respond to me by taking a ridiculous interpretation of what I said and pretending that's what I meant? Clearly I meant I have heard the refrain "it will be better in a year" over and over again, with respect to various different AP features. NOA is just the latest one...

I've heard this before, in 2017. And 2018. And throughout all of 2019. But nevermind that, you have specifically saying that NoA is "flawless" for you, right now. Not in a year -- it is flawless right now, according to your prior posts. Now you're saying that you are very forgiving of it...

Another thing that sucks about the scheduled departure is that it only works in connection with charging, and only in the morning. I charge at work during the day. What I want is the car to warm itself up for me in the morning (despite not being plugged in), including warming up the battery to...

ftfy (bold sections mine) Human lifetimes are short and fleeting. The number of individual instances of buying insurance, or not buying insurance, in a lifetime is pretty small in the grand scheme of things. You are rolling the dice, and the dice are definitely weighted in favor of not...

I try NOA every now and then but always give up on it; see the subject of this thread. I use automatic lane change often, and it works reasonably well in the conditions in which I use it, and I don't want them to make it less safe by trying to make NOA less of a useless toy.

I would rather they not. I like being able to know that I'm definitely not using the brakes when I don't use the brakes. In other words sometimes I want as much regen as I can get without any braking. If they put in some kind of smooth automatic transition between regen and braking they're...

Oh god please no. They have no way to do this safely.

He's referring to a specific problem with the flash storage on MCU1 cars wearing out due to excessive and unnecessary logging activity. When this happens the car becomes unusable until the MCU is replaced or the flash storage on the MCU is replaced. Some third parties will replace the flash...

If I had a nickel for every time people reported the most recent release has way better X (AP, TACC, ALC, NOA, auto wipers, whatever) than the previous one, I would just buy Tesla, fire Elon Musk, and fix the damned cars.

So you seem to be making the assumption that just because I mentioned only one specific area where it tries to kill me 100% of the time, that that is the only place where it screws up, or that it is always predictable where it will screw up. It's not always predictable, and anyway NOA's...

Wow, so if this actually happens, then they will have only missed that "first FSD features in August" deadline by a few months... plus a year. When was it he said that? June 2018 I think? So what he announced would take 2 months took about 17 months. Easy mistake to make I guess?

I generally agree very much with this sentiment and I'm highly skeptical of anybody who sings the praises of this feature... but playing devil's advocate, I will admit that on long stretches of simple, roomy, well-marked highways without nearby access roads or awkward, space-constrained...

HW2's inference hardware is already maxed out, it seems, with the current workload on the neural net. I don't think they have the ability to add this to HW2/2.5. And yet, they promised "On Ramp to Off Ramp" as part of EAP. So either NoA is it, or they somehow manage to cram more onto HW2, or...

OK, you can combine all of those things together without NoA, as I do. And in my experience, which matches the experience of quite a few other people clearly, NoA does not allow me to focus less on navigation because on the roads I drive on at least, it is wrong more often than it is right...

It's important to be specific about NoA vs other Autopilot features. Do you really mean that NoA is making you safer? TACC, Autosteer, and maybe in some cases auto lane change (or at least blind spot alerting) can be argued to be safety features. But how is NoA a safety feature?

Please report back! I really want to know if this is a universal problem with the S or if it's just mine. Though, I'm not sure which answer I'm rooting for... My is is a late-2017 HW2.5 vintage btw. One of the first batch of HW2.5 cars.

Yes. I kept a detailed log this week and some days drove my S and some days drove the 3. Same SW version and maps, same commute, same times of day/traffic. I took a total of 9 trips in the S and had 9 occurrences of the car getting confused about the speed limit and changing my TACC set...

I have had a case open with Tesla for a long time on this lunacy. But what I've found is that my HW2.5 Model S will slow down (thinking it's on an exit) on a particular stretch of highway -- almost every time I drive it -- but my HW2.5 Model 3 cruises right on by those same stretches without...

But having sensors obscured inhibits their ability to do both -- localize and detect obstacles.