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I assume you meant LEAP for June 2025 820c, rather than 2024. I don't think you overlooked anything from a theoretical perspective, but there's some practical aspects to consider: - If the SP closes over 825, do you have the funds to pay for the 100 shares after closing the long leg? Or is this...

It's welfare because the amount is paid to those who need it the most, as opposed to UBI where everyone is paid a fixed amount regardless of need. Personally, I'd prefer a graduated version of the former, but the latter has a better chance of passing.

On the way up, the daily RSI for NVDA and QQQ passed 80 and NVDA forward PE hit 55. In the last 5 years when it was overbought like that, most corrections dropped SP by 15-20%. NVDA RSI is still above the midpoint and QQQ is still overbought, so I'll wait to see if it falls further before...

That only makes sense if Elon believes that his company alone can create AGI, and that the multitudes of other AI companies cannot accomplish this. That argument does not pass the sniff test. Which implies that if Tesla had launched xAI internally or as a subsidiary, the 6B investment by Tesla...

Elon has stated that Tesla is an AI / tech company, not a car company. If Tesla is an AI company, why isn't xAI part of Tesla? Tesla has 24B in cash, more than enough to fund the $6B funding for xAI. It would be like Jensen Huang starting his own semiconductor company to make AI edge...

The larger businesses with $25M revenue should have better margins. Would be better to ramp the tax rate up gradually, rather than 0% below 25M and 3% above. Hopefully they'll add something like a minimum residency period, so people won't go to Oregon just for this.

I suspect it will be very popular if it passes. If the analysis after a year proves to be a net positive, other states will follow.

I love spreads, not sure why that's bad? But here's my perspective on why shorting NVDA is so dangerous. In the graph covering the last 5 years, the forward PE for NVDA has ranged from 25 to 70. However, if we omit the periods in red because those don't apply today, the range is 50 to 70, and...

I'm sure there are more than just a few Elon trolls or uber haters in the wild, but it only takes a small percentage to seem like a lot. In my personal encounters, people who dislike Elon are more of the opinion that he's gone a bit crazy, as opposed to being evil or nefarious. Enough for them...

To be fair, saying that all Elon haters are manipulated by the media is just as silly as Elon haters calling all Elon supporters brainwashed cultists. I have personally cringed many times when reading Elon's posts on X. I don't need the "media" to tell me anything. Furthermore, not everything...

SMCI could be a hidden opportunity. Thinking about buying some calls just before they announce their ER date, in case they revise guidance.

I did but it's still stressful. At least I get paid for my stress. Otoh forward PE for NVDA is around 50. AI is priced into everything everywhere all at once. 😳

A sentient car without survival instincts being pissed at a rider spots a telephone pole.

I know this is the sell the options thread, but other than ideology... Why not buy the stock with 10% OTM cc for 2 years? At least long term cap gains for most of the profit is available. And both tie up the same amount of capital.

Didn't see the event, but I thought it was local models and opt in? Or if not, can be opt out.

Yeah, crazy idea. But the idea they could have a 3T valuation seemed crazy earlier this year, yet here we are. What we need are: 1) earnings and growth keep at this pace, 2) continued bull market for the macros. If interest rates ease towards end of this year or early next, that could create the...

What's mind blowing is I posted a chart a few weeks ago that shows why NVDA has a potential upside of 100% in a 9 month window based on *fundamentals*, not TA. That implies a 2400 SP within 12 months.

Let me remove LIDAR because you seem to have a bone to pick. Let's say Waymo has a safe, driverless, robotaxi that has an additional component called Something Useless (SU) that costs an extra $1k / year (pick a number). SU does nothing at all. Tesla has a robotaxi service that does not have SU...

I had some pixel phones, google assistant, Nest products, cameras, etc. 40 million phones sounds like mass production. And a sensor array is basically electronics + cpu + i/o, and certainly not rocket science. I never compared camera costs to LIDAR, so not sure why you brought it up. I said...

Happens all the time. Lots of people get fired or reprimanded by their boss, when they say something that might violate their company social media policy. Many companies would have fired employees for some statements that Elon has made. For CEO though, that duty and responsibility would also...

A full time driver makes 10 to 20x more than that. Eliminate that cost and there's lots of extra margin left. Plus, sensor costs keep going down with volume. Just read that LIDAR is expected to drop to $100 in volume. So probably just hundreds of $ amortized cost in the future. As for...

Very eager to see how well this works. From what I've seen from 12.3, at least 4 more nines are needed, probably 5. For FSD to be ready in 2 years, that's 2 nines a year, implying this release needs to increase city miles between disengagements by a factor of 5, since it took 4 months to come out.

When choosing between saying something likely to be wrong or something misleading, one can choose to say nothing at all.

I should clarify the location - SF Bay Area Peninsula, but close to Monterey but without the water. Naturally in software dev, management, and tech startups most my life, but spending more time surfing in SoCal now. Except when I have a nasty cold this week, which is why TMC is suffering through...

You're right, I misread an article from Wazve and mistook it for Waymo. Will go back and update that part.

What matters is the cost, business model, functionality, and safety. Pretty much everyone knows E2E AI is the way to go, so the playing field for functionality has largely leveled. Waymo uses Companies like Wayve uses e2e ai just like Tesla and Waymo uses much more AI than before. That leaves...

Again, the original premise of the OP was when/if robots and AI are advanced enough to take over most jobs, UBI will be required. If you do not believe in the premise, there is no need to discuss anything. Just say you reject the premise and that's the end of discussion. Also, you seem unhappy...

Of course UBI is a form of welfare. The OP was what happens if/when robots and AI take away most the jobs. Countries can't let half their population starve or be homeless.

If you're serious about changing your mind, here's my logic: It should be relatively easy to verify FSD interventions. First, AI itself can be used to distinguish between critical interventions and non-critical ones. This would automate the intervention counts. Second, just count the critical...

I'm probably older than you. With less runway left, making 5x or 10x in less time is somewhat of a priority! :D

I think more non investors and potential investors have tried the latest FSD than people here expect. I certainly have and use it every week. Imo, Elon's antics, ER and P&D, not FUD, have driven away many investors. What keeps them away, besides that, are better returns in their new...

So why are you holding onto TSLA for the duration, when the assets could be in something else with better returns during the wait? Wouldn't it be better to make 20% to 50% annually for a few years, then invest in TSLA after that? I see the argument that TSLA will be worth 10x in 5 years. It...

UBI provides supplemental income for those who need it the most. Those on the bottom don't have money to buy assets like BTC. Besides, BTC is just an asset like anything else. NVDA stock is an even better asset IMO, because it is backed by a company that produces wads of cash and does something...

I deleveraged 10% of my naked NVDA calls below at 1193 today. Obviously was a little early. The valuation is getting richer, but surprisingly could have >50% more upside in the coming months if history rhymes. Wonder if it's worth taking a chance. My calls used to be way out of the money 4...

They raised price targets after lowering both 2Q and 2024 delivery estimates?

I've been using gurufocus and tradingview. Guru has been helpful for fundamentals and Tradingview has been helpful for seeing a specific stock and how it's impacted by macros, rsi, technical analysis, etc on one window. Thinkorswim has a nice news feed and is free if you're using TD/Schwab. I'm...

No details because AI and robots aren't able to do most the work yet. Action will be taken only when they displace enough humans from their jobs.

UBI doesn't change the winners and losers. And the losers don't get a trophy, they all get consolation prizes. Assuming that robots and AI get to the point where they can do most the work, what's wrong with that? But if someone wants a beachfront house? They'll still have to work for it...

Well, kind of. And his fans don't blame him when nvda dips either. Otoh, he works full time on Nvidia, keeps his tweets positive, hits his projections, and doesn't dump billions in NVDA in the open market. While doing dd on NVDA, I was shocked to learn that Nvidia only missed guidance 3 times...

Not him, but personally I would be very happy. Investing in TSLA is never more than a click away if the situation warrants. On my drive up I-5 yesterday, I was commenting to my wife how NVDA feels so similar to TSLA in 2019-2020. Couldn't resist looking at this the other way around. Exciting times.

There are undoubtedly many companies that are overly speculative. However, this is nowhere near dot com because PE and forward PE ratios for the largest AI companies are reasonable. That means most companies are sustainably investing in AI, seeing enough ROI to justify their expenditures. What...

The hyper scalers selling ai compute time are making money. There is way more demand than they can supply. If you're asking what applications are driving that, anything where getting ideas or being close, or getting it right most the time is good enough. Healthcare is a $7T ww market...

I swapped out the last of my TSLA in Jan and moved half my liquid assets to NVDA in Feb, which has turned into 80%. I'm optimistic about the rest of the year, and will remain vested in NVDA in shares, spreads and calls. On pullbacks, I sell stocks and use proceeds to close short legs. When sp...

They past is no prediction of the future, but since 2019, tsla 10x up, 75% down, EM bought twitter, a global pandemic locked most people inside for a couple years, and a chatbot passed the Turing test. Not one person guessed any of that in 2019, and you want to know what's in store over the...

I try to find the best risk adjusted ROI for the next year or two, but don't blindly hold anything anymore. Although I don't expect NVDA to increase as much as some stocks, I have high confidence level that it has the best risk adjusted ROI. I don't see a point to guessing 5 years from now when...

A fair value for historical forward PE is around 35. With their net income and Blackwell shipping this quarter, they're probably in the right range around $1000+. RSI is starting to get overbought for QQQ, but not quite there for NVDA, so NVDA may get ahead of itself in the next day or week. If...

I loved the call. Blackwell is shipping earlier, and Jenson addressed why all generations of Nvidia GPUs will sell and continue to be the best choice for most AI workloads, despite customers building their own chips.

Whoa, this could be big. AI compute resources in the west are much bigger than in China, at least for awhile. Depending on the details, this might be an opportunity for Chinese companies to use this as a backdoor to offshore training to the west. At a minimum Tesla would be more attractive for...

Take a look at the Wayve videos, especially the ones driving around London. They've been doing it for a long time and it looks impressive. The Bill Gates blog on his ride there is credible, and that was a year ago. That made me wonder what else I was missing, so I looked into the recent cars...

Seems like Wayve has been using end to end AI for awhile. The 15 minutes of autonomous driving using their end to end AI tech in London is from 2021. I never heard of them before this, but it's funny that tech seems to converge around the same time. Their version used vision only at first, but...