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There’s no good answer that doesn’t involve more risk because you basically sold at 130 plus the premium unless we drop back down. When this DITM you can roll it far out to move it up a few strikes but then you’re stuck with an ugly losing position for 2 years doing nothing. And even if the...

If I had to guess, the large shorts got out AH and it’s just us retail holding the bag now.

I’m with you with -c155/160 - but it’s usually a violent rally from the bottom so I’m rolling out ASAP before they get too DITM too fast.

Nothing because they’re all gonna be 90+% down. This feels like an inflection point and I’m annoyed I let my fear make me sell calls this morning. Looking to roll out my -c155/160s a month or two to move it up a bit because I don’t think a week will be enough. I’ve been here before - rolling...

Jim had previously said he’d be busy with Passover on ER day.

If he gets his compensation plan, does Tesla not still have to pay the lawyers?

Resold 4/26 -c150/155/160 and bought 4/26 +p140 and 5/3 +p130/135. Was feeling too nervous yesterday with no downside protection.

Depends what your goals are here. I would personally take some profit, it doesn’t have to be all or none. If you want downside protection, long puts would be more profitable than calls without giving up upside on the shares. You just have to pay for them, instead of getting paid to sell covered...

I didn’t say we were done! Just that I don’t think they’ll want to pay out for the obvious long put play. With that idea, I also sold -p140 for this week against +p140 for next week. If we can end this week above 140 then I’ll have cheap downside protection for next week.

The most bullish thing to me is everyone’s bearishness. There’s been plenty of time to position for this, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a flat to up week from here to kill everyone’s long puts. I’ve closed most CCs and 130p (lower leg of my bear put spread) for this week. I mostly have...

Weekly because they’re cheap for OTM puts - except for next week with ER so I have +140p/-130p spreads instead.

[/USER] The Isaacson bio made it pretty clear that Elon is most comfortable in hardcore back-to-the-wall situations. This seems to be where we are now. I think it’s now clear Tesla dropped the ball the last couple years but the good thing is Elon finally seems to be taking it seriously...

Remind me - the market doesn't bottom on what day? Was it Friday? I hope it's not Friday.

I’m starting to come around to this view. I don’t think he even has to be great - all he has to do is not make things any worse than they already are and at least that uncertainty will be off the table. This is still the same company and CEO that got us this far. I bought one 12/26 100c today...

If you don’t mind laying out more money, I like to roll down and out. It will cost you another $35/contract - but you can roll them out to 12/26 $100s. The way I see it, you pick up $50 of strike value and extend a year for only $35. Doing this roll at a low is better than doing it high...

He can’t complain about not having 25% voting if he keeps selling off his shares, right? Do we know if the dates would stay the same? Will he still have that big tax sale in 2026 or 2027?

I’m thinking a buy back could happen if we crash down near $100 but you’re right that with upcoming capital expenditures and now lower free cash flow, it’s not something Elon would be likely to do. Re: Elon being an a-hole - not that he would purposely sabotage the company, but he is a busy...

Part of my bear thesis was that it would take another year for the Delaware Supreme Court to rule on the appeal, and Elon wouldn’t get a new package until sometime after that. Meaning he would have no incentive to keep the SP high and anything good for the SP like buybacks would be off the...

Not sure because it depends where the stock goes. I’d want downside protection heading into the weekend, maybe CCs NTM and long puts with strikes $10 below the SP for 4/26. I’d close them out before the ER if they were to go green enough.

I can see this happening. Closed most short call and long puts but looking to reload on a rally to 160+ by end of week.

Is it a coincidence that Elon has been "more engaged" these last few weeks now that his pay package is back on the table? I'm wondering if he's looking to pump a bit between now and June.

It would be nice to see him in cheerleader mode again after these last few terrible calls. I could definitely see a scenario where we bounce hard coming out of it because “the bad news is out of the way” or “sell the rumor, buy the news” after everyone loads up on long puts and short calls for...

This is true, and we were complaining that Elon was distracted by his other companies. The problem is that this feels like he just now realized the issues and is scrambling to fix everything at once. I reopened +p150-155 for the next few weeks and -c155-160 for this week. Also trimmed a...

He tweeted that TSLA was going to moon an hour before this. He’s just noise.

I wonder if it’s a coincidence that we get inflow as NVDA is cooling off, since we had so much outflow when they were rocketing. The money has to be coming from somewhere.

The thing about big buyers is they can turn around and be big sellers.

I'm still not seeing how an event 4 months away is going to overcome earnings in 3 weeks. The stock has held up today but isn't surging or anything like I remember in the old days. I bought puts for Friday from 165-172.50 because I think at some point this week we'll drop to kill all the calls...

None of my 5x -p170 assigned either. Too bad, but I guess there are worse things than getting bailed out of ITM puts after the market has already closed on Friday.

Agree - it’s still 4 months away, after a bad ER or two. And people have to know by now that these events rarely trigger a rally. But still I think it puts some floor under under the stock for the next three weeks until the ER, at least.

I let 5x 4/5 -p170 assign - I wonder if they will.

Tesla buying X.ai and giving Elon enough shares to get to 25% might be a white swan? Otherwise, I don’t like the direction this is heading.

I’m thinking weak deliveries was too telegraphed to go down too much today. It was pretty expected so people have to close short calls and take profits on puts and reposition. I don’t think the other shoe has dropped yet after just 4 hours, though. The stock doesn’t go down all in one day...

The bid-ask is usually pretty wide the first few days to weeks. I’m looking to roll my 1/26s 100c and 150c once the spread becomes more reasonable.

So we went from "Tesla gonna moon to 185" to "C'mon retail, help pump it"

But that wasn’t a product release. I could argue that was more about the ER the week before, which was the profits from the Model Y release in 2020 hitting the financials.

I have just never seen the stock respond to an awesome product release until it shows up in the financials. Model S came out mid-2012 and stock didn’t pop until initial profitability in May 2013. Model 3 came out 2018 stock didn’t pop until 2019-2020. I believe one of our biggest risks at TMC...

900 looks kind of toppy to me. Volume is high but SP has been flat after an insane run - makes me think profit takers are being replaced by new money. I bought and sold a 860p today. Thinking about buying put spreads or selling ITM call spreads. On TSLA, volume was really low today and I still...

Anyone excited about not having to think about buying a Tesla…was never going to buy a Tesla. You’re looking at other manufacturers’ enthusiast groups - of course they’re anti-Tesla. But they are still enthusiastic to pay Tesla for electricity.

I’d roll it. I think we still need downside protection for deliveries but maybe not this week.

Bought puts 150-160 for next week and sold some calls 165-175. The fear and capitulation right now does make me fear a bounce so I'm trying not to sell too many calls but I just don't see any rally coming for the next two weeks with the delivery numbers being feared so low.

When puts get DITM, I like to split them 1:2 because it brings the strike down a lot. It of course doubles your downside risk. You could open 2x 9/20 -p200 for each call you close. You could also roll at the same time and open 2x 1/26 -p175 for each call. The easiest thing to do without using...

Looking for a max pain bounce tomorrow, at least in the morning, but expect down next week after that. Hoping to be able to sell calls into strength tomorrow.

I'm hoping for a DCB this afternoon. Seems like buying puts is too obvious today and I wouldn't be surprised to see a bounce to clear them out by Friday.

If you look at the option chain: 100 strike calls (any exp) are down more than 180 strike calls on an absolute basis, even though the 180 strike is down more on a percentage basis. Because the 100 strike is a higher dollar amount - even a lower percentage of that is a higher absolute amount...

You can consolidate to fewer contracts, but then if we rebound you won’t have as much upside. I would do some combination of adding cash and consolidating. It doesn’t have to be an all or none thing, you could just slowly roll contracts one at a time as you make money scalping weeklies. If...

The calls. It is pretty expensive with a lot of contracts, but for example you could add ~$6000 to get a 1/25 180c to a 6/26 100c, which gets you $80 in strike improvement and another 18 months. Plus you can still sell calls when SP is sub-180.

I would consider rolling down some of those 2025s to lower strikes by adding cash. It makes them safer and gives you more positions to sell calls against when the SP is down here. I think of it like this: the new lower-strike position has lost even more than the current position you're trading...

I think this is very possible and I’m hoping for it, but that’s still 2-5 weeks away. Don’t know what would make us go up before that.

Closed puts and short calls. Expecting 175-180 close this week but more pain next week.

I’m wondering if the inertia of all the contracts that have accumulated are keeping the SP near max pain for this week (via delta hedging or MM rebalancing or whatever). So what happens next week if we still have no buyers? I fear it could go…lower than this. But I have no idea and would love...