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EV's are already halfway to market dominance
- Thread starter Dutchie
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Almost lost me at Kurzweil. The man is full of great ideas but always takes the ridiculously optimistic viewpoint on new technologies.
Nevertheless, the article has a point. We could be at an inflection point... or at least approaching one.
Optimistic indeed. I know it's been talked about a lot, but in all seriousness, for EVs to truely gain market dominance, affordability and range needs to improve a lot more.
I would argue that the Model S has sufficient range. Price is obviously the issue. Gen III could be the game-changer.
There is no guarantee that adoption of EVs will follow that particular model. One of the troubling issues is that as EVs become more common, demand for gas will drop, and prices may drop in response. EVs will drive the cost of transportation down for all cars, and that may significantly slow the adoption of EVs as time goes on.
But there are other indicators that change is coming, and may hit soon. BMW has the i8, Porsche has the 918 spyder, both plug in hybrids, Mercedes has the AMG SLS electric drive. Chevy has the volt and now the spark, Nissan has the leaf. Toyota is building the plug in prius.
The advantages of a hybrid over a pure ICE car are clear, you get regenerative breaking, drastically improving mileage for moderate investment. The advantages of a plug in hybrid over non-plug ins is also obvious, a couple gas free miles at the beginning of every trip. The disadvantage of hybrids is that they are expensive, you have to put two power trains in them. The advantage of a pure EV is that you can increase your all electric range, and do it without being extremely expensive. But plug ins are a very important development, because if you fear having limited range, you can buy one, and realize that you rarely turn on the engine, even with a measly 50 mile range. If you were to get something with 150 mile range, you would be set.
I suspect that a majority of new cars being plug in hybrids will come fairly quickly. At that point, the percentage of miles driven with gas will plummet, and EVs will continue to improve and become more common until they ultimately replace plug in hybrids.
But there are other indicators that change is coming, and may hit soon. BMW has the i8, Porsche has the 918 spyder, both plug in hybrids, Mercedes has the AMG SLS electric drive. Chevy has the volt and now the spark, Nissan has the leaf. Toyota is building the plug in prius.
The advantages of a hybrid over a pure ICE car are clear, you get regenerative breaking, drastically improving mileage for moderate investment. The advantages of a plug in hybrid over non-plug ins is also obvious, a couple gas free miles at the beginning of every trip. The disadvantage of hybrids is that they are expensive, you have to put two power trains in them. The advantage of a pure EV is that you can increase your all electric range, and do it without being extremely expensive. But plug ins are a very important development, because if you fear having limited range, you can buy one, and realize that you rarely turn on the engine, even with a measly 50 mile range. If you were to get something with 150 mile range, you would be set.
I suspect that a majority of new cars being plug in hybrids will come fairly quickly. At that point, the percentage of miles driven with gas will plummet, and EVs will continue to improve and become more common until they ultimately replace plug in hybrids.
I think we are already at an inflection point in the premium sports sedan segment. Model S competes with Maserati Quattroporte, some Aston Martin, Porsche Panamera, and so on. And it dominates when combined with a supercharger network, while being at 25% gross margin. IOW you look silly if you shop in this segment and DON'T buy a Model S.
Now Tesla is only cash limited in growth and in bringing Gen III to the market. All technical hurdles were overcome, no more breakthroughs required. After building the mega battery factory, they won't have to wait for battery cells to reach a certain price point, the will DEFINE the price point. Period. And with Elon involved, who has already driven down the cost of space transportation down by 75%*, I am quite optimistic that he will push the borders there, too.
So if Warren Buffet would come around, or Steve Ballmer looks for a pleasant way to invest a billion here when retired, things in the medium priced car segment could tip very fast. Earliest 2016, but 2018 latest.
*): Ariane V launch $200m, Falcon 9 launch $55m.
Now Tesla is only cash limited in growth and in bringing Gen III to the market. All technical hurdles were overcome, no more breakthroughs required. After building the mega battery factory, they won't have to wait for battery cells to reach a certain price point, the will DEFINE the price point. Period. And with Elon involved, who has already driven down the cost of space transportation down by 75%*, I am quite optimistic that he will push the borders there, too.
So if Warren Buffet would come around, or Steve Ballmer looks for a pleasant way to invest a billion here when retired, things in the medium priced car segment could tip very fast. Earliest 2016, but 2018 latest.
*): Ariane V launch $200m, Falcon 9 launch $55m.
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