Model 3 Production Tracking

[Roy_H]

I am surprised there is not already a tracker here. I decided to try to duplicate Bloomberg's Model 3 Tracker, but when I created my own graph, using the same data and methods reported by Tom at Bloomberg, I did not come up with the same graph. I can only conclude that there is more to Tom's graph than he says. I am referring to his first graph based on VINs registered, not reported. So, here's mine. VINs registered from Model 3 VINs (@Model3VINs) | Twitter and using the same 13 week trailing average:

Updated 2018-10-13

 

[Ejl80]

Have you checked in the ordering production and delivery forum? Or the search button perhaps?

 

[Roy_H]

As you can see the chart is heavily averaged and does not show spikes like the 5,000 produced in the last week of June. Unlike Bloomberg, this simple model does surprisingly show a current production rate of 5k which is in line with latest report from Electrek. If there are some here who know better, please say so. I am thinking of adding another chart with reported VINs from owners similar to Bloomberg's but with and important difference. Bloomberg simply asks for a VIN, but this is meaningless unless it is also known that the car has also been manufactured and not just from a customer who has been notified that his car is in the que. I am thinking that submitted VINs must be in the form of a photograph taken through the windshield, this would prove the car was actually made. Thoughts?

 

[Roy_H]

Have you checked in the ordering production and delivery forum? Or the search button perhaps?

Yes I have and there is a lot of data there, but not focused on production. No way to separate data from people waiting to get their car as apposed to delivered. Also there is almost too much data there about various options and configurations which makes extracting data difficult.

 

[suwaneedad]

There's a sticky at the top of the Model 3/Order, Production, Delivery page that has an incredible google sheets file that's painstakingly maintained by @Troy. In it, there's a production tab that will give you all you need to know, with incredible accuracy.

 

[Roy_H]

Going by the latest sales for Model 3 as shown by InsideEVs.com, my chart and production estimates are wildly optimistic. I will not attempt any more updates as I now consider this method a dead issue.