Yep. Pretty likely for Falcon. Probably ot so much for starship in for foreseeable future—maybe next decade?
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SpaceX F9 - Starlink Group 4-2+Bluewalker 3 - LC-39A
- Thread starter Grendal
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Yep. Pretty likely for Falcon. Probably ot so much for starship in for foreseeable future—maybe next decade?
It will be sooner than that. This is Elon. The moment he gets it working then he will crank up the manufacturing lines and start pumping out Starships and Superheavies as fast as possible. He wants a colony on Mars before he dies. He knows he won't likely get it but he, at least, wants to see the process beginning.
Don't get me wrong--no question Starship will be in commercial service and launching multiple times a month long before the end of the decade. Its just really hard to see a practical reality where they would launch multiples a day from the same area in the next ~7 years. The commercial take is going to be slower than anyone (or at least anyone here) thinks, the government take will be inconsequential, and the Mars demand is always going to be small in this timeframe. Like Falcon, Starlink will be by far the biggest demand, but not to the point where they need two launch facilities (or the ability to turn around a facility in less than 24 hours).
We're getting way off topic here but I expect the government(s) will be more interested in doing something regularly with the Moon. Using a base there as a stopover to access asteroids for exploitation. I'm with Elon for a humanity safety net in the big picture but governments would be more about exploitation for gain in some way or another. Colonization isn't really going to get a government something they need or want to spend enormous sums of money on.
JMHO.
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