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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I think today's covid case number may be a massive macro red flag kids. I was counting on something in the 200k range to show we were near the top of this wave. 301k is not good.

S&P was running way too hot in the first place, now this current wave looks like it'll be pretty bad. With vaccination proceeding well*, deaths should be limited*, but it may take the market a few weeks to figure that out and see the peak of this wave.

#goodjobflorida
High covid cases has always helped tech as it trashes the 10 year. It also transition reopening stocks back to tech.
 
High covid cases has always helped tech as it trashes the 10 year. It also transition reopening stocks back to tech.
Yup, was thinking that too. But I could see the entire market using this as an excuse for a down September that shakes out the retail investors. We're certainly overdue for a macro correction.

Oil and gas has been flying high as if renewables don't exist. Would be happy to see another WTI shock plunge down to $30 or so. If I'm a US fracker I'm buying(selling) with both fists right now. That could create a WTI tsunami.

We shall see. I think this is just far worse than the Gotlieb crowd expected and if it redoubles next week there's gonna be major ripples.
 
Yup, was thinking that too. But I could see the entire market using this as an excuse for a down September that shakes out the retail investors. We're certainly overdue for a macro correction.

Oil and gas has been flying high as if renewables don't exist. Would be happy to see another WTI shock plunge down to $30 or so. If I'm a US fracker I'm buying(selling) with both fists right now. That could create a WTI tsunami.

We shall see. I think this is just far worse than the Gotlieb crowd expected and if it redoubles next week there's gonna be major ripples.

Frankly, I might re-position from TSLA a little for a life thing. Though, I'm not sure - my portfolio is probably a little different than yours, but life situation is very different.

I'm concerned with how things are headed based on the macro environment too. Though, I think TSLA is going to be a leader/winner regardless of how multiples are affected. One thing to mention: every inflection point, or time period, of industrialized society that has seen great conflict, great technological progress and economic expansion occurred.

Happy to be wrong, but that's what I found when skimming history. TSLA is a leader across a lot of industries that have macro headwinds.
 
Yup, was thinking that too. But I could see the entire market using this as an excuse for a down September that shakes out the retail investors. We're certainly overdue for a macro correction.

Oil and gas has been flying high as if renewables don't exist. Would be happy to see another WTI shock plunge down to $30 or so. If I'm a US fracker I'm buying(selling) with both fists right now. That could create a WTI tsunami.

We shall see. I think this is just far worse than the Gotlieb crowd expected and if it redoubles next week there's gonna be major ripples.
I’m a bit tired of hearing the ‘shakes out the retail inventors’ etc…. We’ve been shaking them out for months. Can you tell me at what point they’re all out so we can come up with a new story to explain Wallstreet simply trading back and forth with itself? Do we even have any idea what infinitesimal percentage of stock holding is actual ‘us’?
 
Warren rants about recent Tesla FUD and shares some research, as well as mentions his "Daily Lie" (sign in) page linked in the video's description.


This helps reinforce how media bias propagating out to potential buyers of TSLA likely results in casual investors looking elsewhere to put their money.

This also reinforces how what Tesla is doing is disruptive to a lot of those in positions of media influence, which is, of course,

BULLISH_A_F
 
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Should be a fun next 4 or 5 trading days. MM's want us at $750 this week. Next week's max pain is so low it's not really in play. Or is it?

Let's see how low they can push. Targeting Oct 8 & 15 calls if we get any major dip to <$735. Looking to hit some homeruns buying on low IV and then catch the IV surge after 3Q deliveries are announced and shorting unwinds.

Maybe buy next Thursday-ish if the algos try to push down closer the the $680 max pain for 9/17?
I love what you are saying, but this simple ant feels as though the MM's are harvesting those of us that play the game of buying and selling a portion of our TSLA stock based on whether the price at the beginning of the week is high or low compared to the Max-pain on the coming Friday.
Consistently for the last 2-3 weeks the Publicly stated max-pain number has been below the actual maxpain price. If the low swings down below $700 in the next two weeks I will be happy. The MM's caught me out when the stock price was $707 I sold some stock because the Published maxpain was $680. So I felt safe waiting for it to drop to below $700, and right now I'm in fear of becoming a Flat Stanley Poster Child for those that warned me of picking up pennies before a steam-roller.
 
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10 years of persistence and purpose has led the @SilaNanotech team to a pivotal point in innovation. I can’t wait to share the exciting news. https://t.co/Gxxyn7i6kM
Gene Berdichevsky was employee No. 7 at Tesla, where he helped to develop the batteries for the iconic Roadster and Model S. For the last decade, he has been CEO at Sila Nano, where among his projects is the “forever battery,” a lithium-ion battery that would last three decades.
 
Anybody up for some Taylor, Texas BBQ? :D



...with Chips?

Cheers!
 
Expect lift-off

Expect shenanigans: the top 11 S&P 500 components were red by noon. (macros, this time...)

S&P 500 Index Components by Market Cap.2021-09-08.12-00.png
 
Autopilot is crippled in Europe due to EU rules. For instance, I believe the maximum steering angle is (stupidly) limited, meaning Teslas cannot handle curves in the Europe as sharp as those in the US.
Can confirm. There‘s several places just around Frankfurt where AP has a brainfart due to this and disengages because the curve is outside of the limits. Effing stupid and dangerous. Can’t wait for the EU dumb-down imposed by ICE lobbyists is revoked or at least reduced to Tesla’s capability. We must’ve driven enough miles by now to prove AP is far superior.
 
Each island is independent. Kauai already has batteries. One from Tesla and one from LG, I think.
I stated that poorly. Across each island is what I meant.
All the houses spread far and wide producing solar and sending it up the line. Surges occurring as clouds move in or depart and the sun changes position.
It's a management issue with having all the decentralized production as well as equipment never designed to be used this way.
 
The MM's caught me out when the stock price was $707 I sold some stock because the Published maxpain was $680. So I felt safe waiting for it to drop to below $700, and right now I'm in fear of becoming a Flat Stanley Poster Child for those that warned me of picking up pennies before a steam-roller.

"Published maxpain" with a capital "P"? And you specified "Published" max pain, as opposed to actual maxpain? Dang! If only the "published" max pain was the "real" max pain then perhaps your trade would have gone better? That's the gist I got out of what you wrote but maybe I'm reading too much into it.

The nature of how max pain is calculated means the share price does tend to follow it. But there is no rule that it must follow it. The market tends to be a series of small, boring moves (which is when the share price most closely follows max pain) punctuated by larger, unexpected and completely unpredictable moves. At those times the correlation between share price and calculated max pain is furthest apart. Which is too bad because that's when the most value is gained or lost.

It's not surprising to me that people are always looking for "market secrets" so they can follow a strategy in an attempt to outperform the market. I know this is the case because people will actually try to develop winning strategies on things that are actually completely random, like the roulette wheel or the lottery. At least the stock market is not completely random so good luck to you! Notice how I used the word "luck" there?
 
Do you think 50k September is a possibility given continued ramp and no 4-day shutdown of certain lines. If peak production truly is 1,800/day and only growing, seems within striking distance. We do have the downside of a fewer day in September.

I can't wait for the day that Tesla Shanghai is also outproducing BYD (including PHEV).
 
Do you think 50k September is a possibility given continued ramp and no 4-day shutdown of certain lines. If peak production truly is 1,800/day and only growing, seems within striking distance. We do have the downside of a fewer day in September.

I can't wait for the day that Tesla Shanghai is also outproducing BYD (including PHEV).

It's more than within striking distance. As long as there's no idle days at the factory, 50k should be the assumption.

We didn't get the info that they had hit 1800/day until Mid August. So for them to hit the numbers that they did for August, it means they consistently hit that number for the rest of the month until the 4 day partial factory downtime. The theoretical maximum is then 54,000 for September, assuming no further increase in daily production rate.

So 50k seems like a fair/safe assumption.