Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MC3OZ]

Tesla certainly might be able to sustain such a high growth valuation, but let's not pretend it's normal.

100% correct, let's not assume Tesla is normal.... not the GM, Ford, VW type of normal....

Not the BYD type of normal...

Not even the Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, kind of normal....

The people want normal....they are in the wrong forum...

 

[GOVA]

Just got this…hmm…but I think I’m going to have to wait.

View attachment 1010200

Got mine too. Looks like they are skimming the cream now. 100K and 120K availability only.

 

[Stretch2727]

I came to post this video also. Really a great watch!

As you say, the realization that legacy OEMs are F'd is slowly but surely becoming evident to the auto industry. Folks like this CEO of Caresoft and Sandy Munro are too knowledgeable and their words carry a lot of weight. It's no longer just Elon and Tesla talking about how far ahead they are. Add teardown experts like this plus even the admissions by legacy OEMs that they can't compete should make it obvious to anyone who is willing to think through the logic.

But even with this inevitability staring them in the face, these guys on Autoline are still clinging onto the hope that thisis just temporary and will blow over once the legacy OEMs get their act together. They still don't get that the game is over for them. Lol at the guy who scoffs at Tesla's goal of selling 20 million cars in 2030.

All I can say is, legacy OEMs are getting exactly what they deserve. I, for one, have no sympathy for them and hope they go down in flames. I will be very angry if (when?) they get bailed out by their respective governments.

One comment after watching the video. As it should be, the CEO of Caresoft is mainly interested in selling consulting services. Tesla and the Chinese present a huge opportunity for the automotive consultants in advising the OEM's.

He may understand the gap but consultants are not going to solve this for the OEM's.

 

[Joe F]

Then this should be top priority on the conference call. I don't want to hear Elon talking about f***ing robots.

I think Elon’s progenies indicates he has no interest in f***ing robots.

Competition has moved on to making robots now

What’s next, GM making brain implants? I think Mary should step up and volunteer to lead to be the first recipient.

 

[jerry33]

I think Elon’s progenies indicates he has no interest in f***ing robots.



What’s next, GM making brain implants? I think Mary should step up and volunteer to lead to be the first recipient.

Or perhaps the GM Board should recommend it.

 

[FastEddieB]

A maxim of stock investing is “Never try to catch a falling knife”. While a falling stock may rebound, and offer a buying opportunity, there’s nothing to say it can’t go lower.

For quite some time we’ve been dribbling extra funds into Tesla when able, resulting in a crude form of dollar-cost-averaging. Overall our Tesla holdings are up 75%. Not complaining.

But just recently I’ve started to have some vague misgivings. Nothing in particular, and better discussed in more appropriate threads. As such, I think we’ll hold off on further Tesla investing until the feeling is right again. NOT anywhere near selling - I still think Tesla has overall good prospects. Just taking a breather. For now.

 

[Zero CO2]

A maxim of stock investing is “Never try to catch a falling knife”. While a falling stock may rebound, and offer a buying opportunity, there’s nothing to say it can’t go lower.

For quite some time we’ve been dribbling extra funds into Tesla when able, resulting in a crude form of dollar-cost-averaging. Overall our Tesla holdings are up 75%. Not complaining.

But just recently I’ve started to have some vague misgivings. Nothing in particular, and better discussed in more appropriate threads. As such, I think we’ll hold off on further Tesla investing until the feeling is right again. NOT anywhere near selling - I still think Tesla has overall good prospects. Just taking a breather. For now.

i think many of us are feeling this way ...".must stay strong and fight the FUD" the power of FUD is quite amazing even when you know FUD is happening ... i recommend going to a Tesla service center and check out delivery volume ... pretty good this past weekend in Northern NJ ... i think this was one Peter Lynchs maxims ... traffic at the store ....good way to asses the companies health

i have had this feeling more than once HODLing Tesla .. as i am sure many long term HODLers have .... usually before a big pop in SP ... not advice this time

 

[FastEddieB]

... i think this was one Peter Lynchs maxims ...

“One Up On Wall Street” was one of the first books on investing I read many decades ago. I think it still helps shape my investing philosophy. And has served me quite well.

 

[wipster]

I see both ways, BYD and GWM afaik (@unk45 correct me please) aren't doing anything infrastructure wide directly, and also I would say there is way too much market for them to saturate

I think the real reason Tesla isn't here yet is that it isn't worth for them, even the cheapest Model 3 is expensive, and the volume would be huge market wise but not huge Tesla wise

In terms of Supercharger Network, with a quick look on the map, I would say Tesla needs maybe 20~30 sites to cover a huge portion of potential owners and with as low as 10 to cover a significant portion, this is ignoring inner city ones, and focusing just on highways

We have this huge rest stop network called Graal with 30 something locations, a Tesla partnership with them would be a really good starting point, safe, open 24/7, with amenities of all kinds, fast food, restaurants, shops, etc

Couldn't find a map for their units in all states, but this is for the state of São Paulo where most of the locations are anyway

Size would depend if it's open for all or just for Teslas, even a 6 stall Supercharger would be enough in most locations, with bigger ones in main corridors

Oh, and lots of them already have EV chargers up to 150 kW but usually one or two plugs only

View attachment 1010184

Thanks for your knowledgeable input my friend! Sometimes we forget about the continent to the south of us and it's great to hear from both you and @unk45 about what's really going on the the other side of the globe.

Plus our friends down under as well!

 

[MC3OZ]

Joe's video today is excellent, well worth watching, even better than normal.

Highlights;-

• New Cybertruck line to be started in Q2, employee parking garage and west end-of-line are essential.
• West end-of-line also important for Model Y / Cybertruck ramp.
• Rumours that Wednesday was a new 4680 production record for 1 day
• Boring tunnel under the highway linking the factory to the west start - tunnelling equipment being installed.

The last point is the most intriguing, driving under the bridge over to the west side is possible and easy, I don't think the tunnel would save a team of human drivers that much time. However, if the cars drive themselves through the tunnel over to the west side, that means fewer human drivers are needed and it probably provides a better logistics flow.

 

[joh01652]

Sorry if already posted, but I missed it so maybe others did too.
Sawyer Merritt: NEWS: The @Tesla Model Y was officially the best-selling car overall in Europe in 2023.This is the first time an EV has ever achieved the #1 title.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1748008863305961773

https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/tesla-model-y-first-ev-be-europes-no-1-seller?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

 

[GhostSkater]

A new episode of Autoline just dropped and it's a doozy. If you want to reaffirm why you have invested in TSLA the automaker/manufacturer this one is for you.

Thanks for the share, awesome talk, some of the insights are obvious but not always clear, my biggest takes from it are:

1 - Engineering for the unboxed process while keeping a functional vehicle both for assembly and crashworthiness is incredibly difficult, needs really good minds working on it and those that are willing to start from a blank sheet of paper to solve problem, which is rare, specially in automotive OEMs

2 - The platform model, which every single OEM uses, doesn't work for EVs. You have to design the strength and crashworthiness for the biggest vehicle that uses a given platform, and as result your smallest model efficiency suffers a lot, which means either more batteries, thus cost and space, or lower range and longer charge times. As an example, there are some companies, which I won't say the name, just that it was involved in a big emission scandal, that uses the same platform for compacts, SUVs, sedans and vans (for now), 5/7 rating

3 - T1 Supplier design a product, which they don't specify which, in 22 months, in less than that time, Tesla went from stamped body, to split rear Giga Casting, to single rear Giga Casting, to front and rear Giga Casting with no floor

4 - Chinese manufacturers aren't interested anymore in what other non-Chinese OEMS are doing, they only want to know what Tesla and other Chinese OEMs are up to

5 - In China small cosmetic refreshes are important so people know you have a new vehicle (Highland says "Hi", Juniper says "Gonna be there soon")

A lot of other nice details, with plenty of slides comparing Tesla with others, worth the watch, lot of stuff we knew already from Munro teardown but with hard numbers

 

[DaBooster]

I came to post this video also. Really a great watch!

As you say, the realization that legacy OEMs are F'd is slowly but surely becoming evident to the auto industry. Folks like this CEO of Caresoft and Sandy Munro are too knowledgeable and their words carry a lot of weight. It's no longer just Elon and Tesla talking about how far ahead they are. Add teardown experts like this plus even the admissions by legacy OEMs that they can't compete should make it obvious to anyone who is willing to think through the logic.

But even with this inevitability staring them in the face, these guys on Autoline are still clinging onto the hope that thisis just temporary and will blow over once the legacy OEMs get their act together. They still don't get that the game is over for them. Lol at the guy who scoffs at Tesla's goal of selling 20 million cars in 2030.

All I can say is, legacy OEMs are getting exactly what they deserve. I, for one, have no sympathy for them and hope they go down in flames. I will be very angry if (when?) they get bailed out by their respective governments.

Same sentiment here. There will be a tax payer funded bailout of GM & Ford. They will no doubt plead :too big to fail"

 

[mongo]

The last point is the most intriguing, driving under the bridge over to the west side is possible and easy, I don't think the tunnel would save a team of human drivers that much time. However, if the cars drive themselves through the tunnel over to the west side, that means fewer human drivers are needed and it probably provides a better logistics flow.

I think River Road is public. If so, the tunnel allows the cars to remain on Tesla property which makes self directed logistics easier and avoids non-Tesla traffic. Even if human driven, it would speed things up a lot.

Maybe they also add cargo transport for the warehouse on wheels yards (virtual/remote loading docks).

 

[Buckminster]

Highland wins important UK award (best exec car):
Lexus LBX wins What Car? Car of the Year | Autocar
Not sure if a hybrid winning car of the year counts as progress or not...

 

[Tiger]

Would anyone here object to Tesla buying that from Elon for $10 Billion? If so, what would be a fair price Instead?

It would make sense to just poach the employees instead, what else does that company have?

 

[Buckminster]

New unboxed video from Autoline

30 new Dojo jobs

Radar recruitment for interior or exterior?

EU phasing out diesel trucks

Thread on astronaut mission

Destination charging demo drives plus hefty Biden charging funding

Elon Compensation Package

Mg Thixomoulding benefits from Jordan - gen 3 intro?

New "scrappy budget" advertising jobs

Starbase growth and name change

 

[EQC_]

The purpose of Tesla earnings calls is to clarify that:

1. Prototypes are easy; manufacturing is hard.

2. When FSD goes live, it will be the biggest step change in valuation in history.

Set your expectations at (1) and (2) and it is impossible to be disappointed.

Sortof an add-on to number (1):

When somebody asks about predicted Cybertruck production numbers, we'll be reminded that the ramp will be exponential, and exponentials are hard to predict in the early stages. Also, production will be limited by the least lucky of all the component/input parts that also need to ramp up production, both in-house and from the many suppliers.

*Edited to add: I have no problem with Elon repeating these things, since he's generally answering questions when he does. The issue/blame really falls more on the professional analysts asking questions, since they keep walking down the same path that leads to these same answers. Of course, if Elon points out that their questions are boring and/or boneheaded, then he'll get all the blame.

*Edited again to note that I looked up an article about that incident, to remind myself, and happened on this:
https://www.inc.com/geoffrey-james/elon-musk-was-right-questions-were-bonehead.html
and this:
https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo...p-with-the-boring-bonehead-questions-on-tesla
Both of which have some pretty good quotes, just skimming through.

From the first link, I found this quote from Elon, regarding the Model 3:
"Tesla has roughly half a million reservations, despite no advertising & no cars in showrooms [and] even after reaching 5k/week production, it would take 2 years just to satisfy existing demand even if new sales dropped to 0."

I'll award everybody here 1,000 imaginary bonus points if, in response to a question, Elon has to say something similar about the Cybertruck...obviously adjusted to note they have millions of Cybertruck reservations and a few trucks drawing lines of viewers in showrooms.

 

[KBF]

(before trading hours...)

Hmmm, our household has had a couple of turbo intercooled vehicles, including a VW TDI. We've had winters with temps colder than that. Never had the insides of an intercooler clog up due to ice. Nor have I heard of that with many folks I know who also have intercooled engines...

Now, glow plug and fuel-gelling issues, yes. Diesels also like good cranking speed to generate that compression heat, and the cold effects on batteries compounds the aforementioned issues. Have you checked those?

I have heard that it's probably the biodiesel or whatever - the fake 'environmentally friendly' fuel that virtue signalling lobbyists pushed. Issues all over the US. Certain mixes do terrible in cold weather - Canadian gas stations switch over from 'summer fuel' to 'winter fuel' in September/October (my buddy works IT for a local co-op chain).

You should be able to drive in at least -30C with the right gas mix, but I think the farther south you go the less gas stations pay attention to this.

How to relate this to TSLA... Other than I'm super glad not to worry about going to a gas station anymore...


Maybe just a reminder, with all the negative 'EV's can't charge in winter' nonsense - which is getting far more airtime than the ICE's struggling - I've driven in freaking Winnipeg/Manitoba since 2012 (worst temperature was a windchill of -55C, the 110V cable at the cabin froze so I had to use an RV extension cord from the range, and that solved things), I'd still rather drive a Tesla in a blizzard that anything else... And I've never had my EV not start in the cold, but I've had several dead ICE's.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1748230053136125968