I've been saying for a while now I think 2024 will largely be a "flat" year for the stock. A foundation year where Tesla lays the framework for excellent growth going forward, but financially an underwhelming year.
Factors I think will hold TSLA down in 2024:
- Further price cuts and lowering margins.
- A low guidance year (I'm expecting Tesla to guide for only 2.1 million production in 2024).
- CT ramp will be very slow due to 4680 ramp also being slow. Something like 80K CT's sold in 2024.
- A declining overall auto market will put negative pressure on TSLA by association.
- The economy overall will get worse before it gets better, and the Fed likely won't begin lowering rates until close to year's end.
- Tesla Energy ramp will be nice production wise but financially minor for 2024.
- FSD will probably improve but won't add much financially in 2024.
- No substantial semi production in 2024.
I still think we'll see a lot of positives for Tesla in 2024, I just don't think they'll impact TSLA at all in this year:
- We'll likely see the Gen3 Compact Tesla revealed by year's end, probably within the last two months. (no production until 2025 at the earliest tho)
- Optimus bots will probably begin testing in Tesla factories in 2024.
- Optimus progress will be substantial in 2024, but still remain in prototype phase.
- MY refresh will be super popular, but not a big adder due to existing production lines being close to maxed out.
- More states will get Tesla Insurance in 2024.
- At least one new factory location announced in 2024, possibly two.
- Giga Mexico construction likely to begin in 2024.
These are just me expectations for 2024, I certainly don't have a crystal ball or anything. I personally doubt TSLA crosses over $300 in 2024, maybe towards the EoY we get close to there again. I do think we'll cross the ATH again of $415 in 2025 though.